Pressure on gas: Russia expands supplies of liquefied fuel to China
Supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from Russia to China this year may increase by 66.7% to 750 thousand tons in 2025 against 450 thousand tons in 2024. This is stated in the Argus presentation, which was reviewed by Izvestia. According to experts, the increase in exports is explained by Europe's refusal to purchase Russian raw materials and a decrease in American imports due to tariff restrictions. However, they note that there are a number of problems for a significant increase in supplies to China due to the periodic shortage of tank wagons, downtime at border crossings and the lack of terminals for LPG transshipment in the Far East. What market share of raw materials for Chinese petrochemicals can Russia occupy is in the Izvestia article.
Russian gas supplies to China
Supplies of liquefied petroleum gas from Russia to China this year may increase to 750 thousand tons against 450 thousand tons last year. This is stated in the Argus presentation, which was reviewed by Izvestia. According to an industry source, this is the assessment of market participants. As noted in the presentation, following the results of the five months of 2025, shipments to China by rail amounted to 230 thousand tons.
"By the end of the year, shipments by rail to this country may amount to at least 550-600 thousand tons out of a total volume of 750 thousand tons, the rest will be transported by road," the Izvestia source said.
Despite the fact that by the end of last year, Russia delivered 450 thousand tons of LPG in total, the growth may amount to more than 66%.
— Currently, Russia produces about 16 million tons of LPG, while China produces about 50 million tons and imports about 35 million tons. Of course, China is interested in diversifying supplies due to tariff wars, and we could increase exports. But the Russian Federation does not have marine terminals in the Far East for LPG transshipment. We only have the possibility of delivery by rail through Zabaikalsk, which is packed with goods, as well as transportation by road. Thus, we cannot compete with large tankers with a capacity of 45 thousand tons of gas, which deliver the product from the Persian Gulf countries or the United States," the source explained to Izvestia.
LPG is widely used in various fields due to its unique properties and convenience of storage and transportation. It is used for heating houses, cooking, as fuel for small power plants, in the chemical industry for the production of plastics, rubbers, solvents, as well as as fuel for transport, including locomotives and ships. LPG is a universal source of energy and raw materials used in almost all sectors of the economy, as well as in everyday life.
Tamara Safonova, General Director of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector (NAANS-MEDIA LLC), recalled that after the 12th package of sanctions entered into force at the end of 2023, the bulk of LPG of Russian origin remained blocked for EU countries.
Before the introduction of restrictive measures, LPG exports amounted to about 4 million tons, added Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing Partner of VMT Consult. According to her, Russian supplies to foreign markets currently amount to less than 3 million tons. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan have become alternatives to the European market for the sale of LPG from Russia, except for China.
Gas export growth potential
The Chinese market, currently unencumbered by sanctions, is promising for the growth of LPG supplies from Russia, Tamara Safonova noted. However, according to her, there are a number of problems for significant growth due to the periodic shortage of tank cars for LPG transportation, decommissioning of decommissioned tanks, and downtime during border crossings.
At the same time, Russian Railways is working to optimize the transportation process, introducing discounts on railway fares in certain directions, the expert added. Thus, by the end of 2025, the company has introduced a 12.8% discount to the tariff for transportation of liquefied petroleum gas from Tobolsk.
— A number of companies are updating their fleet of tank cars for the transportation of LPG from their own production in order to ensure transportation safety. Together, these factors improve the economy and are the drivers of the growth of LPG supplies towards China in the future," Tamara Safonova believes.
Ekaterina Kosareva agrees with her colleague, saying that infrastructure problems are holding back the potential for export growth. At the same time, she recalled that in 2024, the authorities announced the construction of a marine terminal for LPG transshipment in the Far East.
In the fall of 2024, the Government of Primorsky Krai signed a memorandum of intent on cooperation with co-investor companies in the implementation of an investment project for the integrated development of port infrastructure in the seaport of Sovetskaya Gavan with a cargo turnover of 10 million tons per year. The project to create a terminal for the export of liquefied petroleum gases with a cargo turnover of 1 million tons per year to the countries of the Asia—Pacific region is being implemented by Remstal, a resident of the territory of the free port of Vladivostok in the Khabarovsk Territory. At this stage, the announced investments amount to 29.4 billion rubles. It was planned that the terminal would be launched at the end of 2025.
Izvestia has sent inquiries to all leading oil and gas companies and to the Ministry of Energy.
Tariff wars and gas supplies
Currently, against the background of the tariff war between the United States and China, Beijing, in principle, intends to diversify supplies of raw materials and products from the United States, said Olga Orlova, head of the Industry department at the Institute of Oil and Gas Technologies.
— Despite the fact that Washington and Beijing signed an interim trade agreement in May, reducing tariffs until August 12 from 145 to 30% (USA for goods from China) and from 125 to 10% (PRC for US goods), the United States cannot be called a reliable partner in China, the expert believes.
According to Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, the trade differences between the United States and China are most sensitive for the supply of ethane, a gas processing product that is widely used in gas chemistry.
"The United States is currently the world's largest exporter of ethane: according to the Energy Information Administration, exports from the United States reached 505,000 barrels per day in April 2025, of which 242,000 were supplied to China," the expert noted.
According to him, Chinese companies would benefit from the diversification of import sources, and shipments from the Amur gas processing Plant, which divides the gas from the Chayandinsky and Kavyktinsky fields into methane, ethane and other fractions, could play an important role here.
— To date, two of the six stages of the Amur Gas Processing Plant have been commissioned: the commissioning of the remaining four lines could provide a raw material base for ethane supplies to China, — Sergey Tereshkin emphasized.
China and Russia, against the background of various external challenges, see each other as reliable partners who intend to expand their energy dialogue, Ekaterina Kosareva from VMT Consult noted.
According to the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, in 2024, Russia supplied 108.47 million tons of oil, 30 billion cubic meters of pipeline gas, and 8.3 million tons of LNG to China.
As early as 2025, pipeline gas supplies through the Power of Siberia will reach the design level of 38 billion cubic meters, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said earlier.
— Moreover, Russia is the leader in oil supplies to China. In 2024, the average daily volume was 2.19 million barrels against 1.5 million barrels from Saudi Arabia, which ranks second among oil exporters to China. As for gas, the Russian Federation intends to increase pipeline supplies to almost 100 billion cubic meters by 2030. Currently, negotiations on the Power of Siberia-2 project, which should have a capacity of 55 billion cubic meters, have been updated, Kosareva believes.
According to her, geopolitical risks such as sanctions, tariff wars, and threats of straits closure are becoming an additional reason to strengthen good-neighborly, partnership relations between Russia and China. And any infrastructure issues can be solved with mutual interest, they just take time. Russia has been living without a European sales market for only the third year, the expert concluded.
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