Pipes are clean: Russia predicted a reduction in gas production
Russia may reduce gas production in 2025. This forecast was given by the International Energy Agency (IEA). It expects that gas production in Russia will amount to 690 billion cubic meters. Earlier, the IEA predicted that Russia would produce 692 billion cubic meters of gas per year. Experts interviewed by Izvestia confirm the possibility of a decline due to the warm winter, sanctions and the end of the Russian-Ukrainian transit agreement. What will happen to the Russian gas market is in the editorial's material.
The main conclusions
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has presented a report on the gas market, including an assessment of the situation on the Russian gas market. In particular, the organization noted that in the first half of the year, Russia reduced exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by 7% (1.6 billion cubic meters). The agency cited sanctions as the main reason for this, which have suspended exports at two factories in the country since the end of February. We are talking about Russian medium-tonnage LNG plants in the Baltic Sea, which are on the sanctions list of the US Treasury.
At the same time, Russian LNG supplies to Europe decreased by 4% compared to the same period last year (by 0.5 billion cubic meters). Despite this, Russia remains the second largest supplier of liquefied natural gas to the EU. Belgium, France and Spain import the most Russian natural gas (more than 85% of the total supply).
The Russian Federation also reduced the supply of pipeline gas in the first six months of 2025. Exports of this type of fuel decreased by 20% (4.5 billion cubic meters). The share of Russian pipeline gas in European gas demand in the first half of the year was less than 8%.
Supplies to the European Union have decreased due to the termination of gas transit through Ukraine. Overall, exports of Russian pipeline gas to the EU are projected to decrease by 13 billion cubic meters this year.
At the same time, the IEA announced a decrease in the estimate of gas production in Russia. It is expected to reach 690 billion cubic meters (against the expected 692 billion cubic meters). However, this is still higher than the volumes produced in 2024 (685 billion cubic meters).
However, the agency predicts that in 2026 the volume of production will grow by 2.6%, to 708 billion cubic meters.
A multifactorial problem
Natural gas production and exports in Russia have indeed been showing a downward trend since the beginning of 2025, said Evgeny Smirnov, Head of the Department of World Economy and International Economic Relations at the State University of Management. According to him, there are several explanations for this trend.
First of all, it is important to understand that today the global economy is trending towards a slowdown in global gas demand, the expert explains. This situation is due to the fact that the global gas market continues to be under pressure from high prices due to restrictions on Russian exports introduced in recent years.
— In addition, the situation in some economies of developed countries is close to the recession (as, for example, in Germany), and many countries are still characterized by macroeconomic uncertainty, and this leads to a weakening of demand for energy resources, including gas, — the economist points out.
Another external factor is related to a decrease in gas demand from China, which is the world's largest consumer, adds Smirnov.
— Compared to the same period in 2024, in the first half of 2025, China imported 1% less gas and 20% less liquefied natural gas. This country is not yet able to fully demand the volumes that Russia is potentially ready to export," the Izvestia interlocutor is convinced.
Vladimir Demidov, an independent expert on the resources and energy market in Russia, also highlights the saturation of the domestic market, a change in the policy of storage capacity in the European Union, and "deferred" purchases based on the expectation of lower prices against the background of reduced energy consumption.
And the saturation of the domestic market with gas is largely due to the fact that during the past heating season, smaller volumes of gas were demanded than in previous years, Smirnov believes. This situation is explained by the fact that last winter in Russia was very warm.
Sergey Pikin, Director of the Energy Development Fund, sees the end of the transit agreement with Ukraine as another reason for the reduction in gas production and exports.
— The export direction was closed, and therefore the supply of pipeline gas decreased, as well as production volumes, — the expert clarifies.
It turned out to be simply impossible to quickly redirect the flows supplied in the Ukrainian direction, Smirnov confirms.
Positive dynamics
In the second half of 2025, the production rate may recover due to the need to fill underground gas storage facilities, predicts Vladimir Demidov. However, it is likely that the volume received will not reach the predicted values. This is also because UGS facilities in Europe are now more than 60% full. This indicator is higher than normal, which is why European buyers are likely to postpone the purchase of energy resources for the autumn months.
Russia may increase both production and exports in the second half of this year, admits Evgeny Smirnov. However, this growth will be insignificant, since in 2026 large volumes of gas from the United States will be "released" to the world market. However, demand from Asia will grow rapidly, which will help balance the market, the economist believes.
—It should be borne in mind that the revision of the forecast for Russia made by the International Energy Agency was made by an insignificant amount, and even if we proceed from the most conservative scenarios, in 2026-2027, gas production in Russia will not be lower than the level of 2024-2025," the expert draws attention.
According to him, this is supported by the expected increase in domestic gas consumption, including due to the actively continuing gasification of the country, and the potential growth in exports due to the construction of a new supply infrastructure, including for liquefied natural gas.
The situation on the pipeline gas market, in turn, will remain approximately the same as in the first half of the year, Sergey Pikin expects, due to the closure of the Ukrainian direction. However, work is actively underway to redirect existing gas volumes to Turkey. Exports are already higher than last year. And this trend, according to the expert, will continue until the end of the year.
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