Hitting tariffs: The Central Bank allowed a re-escalation of global trade wars
The United States and its trading partners were able to reach agreements, but a re-escalation of the situation cannot be ruled out, according to the materials of the Central Bank. If this happens, there is a risk of a slowdown in global economic growth. For Russia, the unwinding of a new round of trade wars may lead to a reduction in demand for energy resources. Now, for the Russian Federation, the situation is smoothed out by a high key — it supports the ruble exchange rate and makes investments in ruble assets more attractive. However, in the future, it is necessary to reduce dependence on oil and gas revenues. What will happen to the Russian and global economies is in the Izvestia article.
Is it possible for Trump's trade war to escalate
The Central Bank sees risks of a slowdown in global economic growth. The situation is stable now, despite uncertainties in trade policy and geopolitics, as well as the likelihood of a renewed acceleration in inflation.
Although the United States has reached agreements with its main partners, a re-escalation of trade contradictions cannot be ruled out. This is stated in the most recent "Financial Stability Review" of the Bank of Russia. Izvestia sent a request to the regulator about when a new round of trade wars is possible.
Donald Trump announced the imposition of duties against 185 countries in early April. Later, he repeatedly froze these tariffs. As a result of the trade deals, rates for some countries were reduced, for example, for Japan from 25% to 15% and Indonesia from 32% to 19%. With the European Union, Trump agreed to reduce tariffs from 30% to 15%, and in return, the EU promised to abandon Russian raw materials and annually purchase $250 billion worth of energy from the United States for three years. In addition, duties against China increased to 145%, but later the countries arranged a "trade truce" and stopped tariffs by 10%. Later, Washington postponed the introduction of increased duties on imports from Beijing until November 10, 2026.
The confrontation between the United States and China has become a central element of the entire global trade conflict, said Vladimir Sedalishchev, a leading researcher at the International Laboratory for Foreign Trade Research at the IPEI Presidential Academy. Duties now remain a lever of economic and geopolitical pressure, so the risks of future protectionist decisions remain, says Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam.
In general, only those states that can negotiate with partners with economic influence will benefit from tariff wars and minimize losses, said financial adviser and founder of Rodin.Capital Alexey Rodin. Russia, Belarus, North Korea and Cuba are currently experiencing the least stress, as they have not faced additional restrictions from the United States, he added. China, neighboring Canada and Mexico, as well as the European Union countries, may suffer the greatest losses in this situation.
America has also repeatedly threatened to expand existing duties against Russia's trading partners. For example, in the summer, Washington imposed 50 percent tariffs against New Delhi for refusing to stop buying Russian oil.
What will happen to the global economy
"Global uncertainty indices in the field of economic and trade policy remain at an elevated level. New waves of protectionism, including a possible expansion of tariff measures, may increase inflationary pressures due to rising production costs and supply disruptions. Additional risks are associated with geopolitical tensions and volatility in commodity markets," the Bank of Russia said in its review.
Donald Trump
Donald Trump started the trade war partly to protect his country and expand industrial production in the United States. Trade conflicts are likely to ease at the end of his term as head of state (the next American presidential election is scheduled for 2028), says Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. Unless, of course, a candidate with even tougher protectionist views comes to power in America.
In any of these cases, there is a high probability that increased duties will become the norm for the global economy for at least the next seven years, and possibly longer, the expert added.
According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, by the end of this year, the global economy will grow by about 3%, and in 2026 it may reach 2.7–2.9%. For comparison, the IMF expects figures of 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026.
What are the risks for Russia
For Russia, the main risk is that trade wars directly affect the cost of energy resources. Currently, supply exceeds demand in the global oil market, which puts pressure on oil prices, said Olga Belenkaya from Finam.
She added: the more the global economy slows down, the less demand for oil will be. For Russian exports, the situation is also exacerbated by the price discount to global benchmarks due to sanctions, the expert said.
A reduction in demand from China and India in the event of a sharp slowdown in global growth or an aggravation of geopolitical risks will also be potential factors for lower oil prices. And also — a further increase in production by OPEC+ countries and the United States, according to the report of the Central Bank.
According to the latest data from December 5, the price of Urals crude oil was about $54.5 per barrel, while energy resources have fallen in price by about 25% since the beginning of the year.
Russia is now gradually reducing its budget's dependence on oil and gas revenues. For example, 10 years ago, the share of such incomes was about 50%, Olga Belenkaya added. In 2024, it was about 30%, and in 2025 it may be already below a quarter.
— At the same time, in order to further reduce dependence on oil revenues, first of all, it is necessary to invest in deep processing, as well as develop the non-primary part of the economy. In particular, agriculture, pharmaceuticals, IT industry, machine and machine tool industry, creative industries. It is appropriate to supply surplus products abroad, which will increase non-primary non-energy exports. This, in turn, will allow unhindered import development without threatening the ruble," Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing partner of the VMT Consult analytical agency, is convinced.
In addition, Vladimir Sedalishchev from the Presidential Academy continued, improving the investment climate, reducing corruption and creating conditions for the development of the domestic market are equally important.
Currently, the situation for Russia is being smoothed out by the tight monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The regulator keeps the key high to slow down inflation. However, this also increases the attractiveness of ruble assets for citizens and companies (including exporters), according to the regulator's report. The moderate demand of importers for foreign currency also helped to keep the ruble's volatility low.
The new sanctions of unfriendly countries negatively affect both prices and the physical volume of Russian exports, the Central Bank said. However, the experience of past restrictions shows that within a few months it is possible to rebuild sales and settlement channels, after which the situation can stabilize.
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