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- Quota status: OPEC+ has decided to maintain its oil production policy until the end of the year
Quota status: OPEC+ has decided to maintain its oil production policy until the end of the year
Representatives of the eight OPEC+ countries decided to maintain their oil production policy until the end of 2025 — in December they will increase production by a total of 137 thousand barrels per day. They also confirmed the earlier decision to suspend the increase in production in the first quarter of 2026. Further actions of the G8 will be announced in January. Experts believe that this is the right decision while waiting for the resolution of the geopolitical situation. A further recovery in OPEC+ production would exacerbate the problem of overproduction, pressure on prices and a drop in profits. See the Izvestia article about what awaits the oil market in the near future.
What did the participants of the oil alliance agree on?
On November 30, a series of online meetings of representatives of the oil cartel took place. First, the OPEC member countries met, followed by a meeting of the OPEC+ monitoring committee. After that, a meeting of eight participants with voluntary restrictions on oil production took place — Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Kuwait and Oman.
As a result, OPEC+ ministers confirmed earlier decisions on oil production levels in 2026 during an online meeting — current production quotas will be in effect throughout the year, OPEC said in a press release.
At the same time, the ministers of the eight OPEC+ countries confirmed the earlier decision to suspend the increase in oil production in the first quarter of 2026.
"After December, due to seasonality, eight countries also decided to suspend production growth in January, February and March 2026," the report said.
That is, production levels in the first quarter will be determined at the level of quotas in effect for December.
Recall that a month ago, when it was decided to increase production by 137 thousand barrels per month by the end of the year, OPEC+ announced that they could change the policy of increasing oil production.
The Ministers also approved a mechanism that will be used to determine the maximum production opportunities for the participating countries. It will be the base for production levels for 2027.
According to the OPEC statement, "the eight countries will hold monthly meetings to review market conditions, compliance, and compensation. The eight countries will meet on January 4, 2026."
As explained by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, the global oil market remains sensitive to changes in supply and demand.
— Its stability still depends on the decisions of key players. Our main task is to ensure the full implementation of the existing agreements. Monitoring of the implementation of both mandatory and voluntary production adjustments by all participants will continue. Depending on the market situation, additional decisions will be made if necessary. This flexibility will allow OPEC+ to continue to maintain stability in the oil market," he said on the Rossiya-24 TV channel.
What was the oil market like the day before
Since April, the cartel has increased production targets by more than 2.7 million barrels per day, about 2.5% of global supplies. But in October and November, growth slowed amid forecasts of an impending oversupply, Reuters wrote.
According to the London ICE Futures exchange, the price of Brent crude oil in November decreased from $64.77 to $62.38, a drop of 3.6%.
Several factors had an impact on investor sentiment. In the middle of the month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published the World Energy Outlook report, which warned of an increasing oversupply. According to the IEA forecast, production will exceed demand by 2.4 million barrels per day in 2025, and by 4 million barrels next year. The Agency also expects global consumption to grow up to 2050.
However, later OPEC Secretary General Haytham al-Gaisa said that the organization does not predict a surplus in the global oil market in 2026. In addition, he noted that OPEC continues to expect a steady increase in demand — by about 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026. The Secretary General also drew attention to the fact that despite discrepancies in forecasts with the IEA, OPEC estimates are close to those given by the US Department of Energy.
In addition, at a meeting of the heads of the organizations of the petroleum and gas exporting countries, OPEC and the GECF, Haitham al-Gaisa and Mohammed Hamel, expressed concern about the lack of investment in the oil and gas industry. Such a shortage is taking place against the background of the expected long-term growth in demand for oil and gas, which was announced in the official release of OPEC.
According to Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of VMT Consult, despite the contradictory forecasts of OPEC and the IEA, at the end of November, the attention of investors and oil market players was focused on the issue of resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
According to Ekaterina Kosareva, a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine can lift sanctions against Moscow and increase oil supplies to the world market.
At the same time, she notes that on the eve of the OPEC meeting, two more events occurred that had an impact on the dynamics of price declines. Ukraine attacked two tankers in the waters of Turkey, which were heading to Russia and attacked the marine terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) in Novorossiysk.
The Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan responded to the latest incident. They stressed that "the CPC is an international energy corridor, and any encroachment on it creates direct risks to global energy security, while harming all economic interests of the project participants." It is worth recalling that there are many foreign companies among the project participants, including American ones.
Why did OPEC+ make such a decision
According to Valery Andrianov, an associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, OPEC+'s decision to maintain production levels turned out to be quite predictable.
— In fact, today the main task of the alliance is to maintain the status quo and "not to make sudden movements" against the background of uncertain global market conditions. According to most forecasts, in 2026, the "overhang" of oil supply over demand will continue," the source told Izvestia.
He recalled that according to the latest forecast, the IEA predicts an increase in oil demand next year by 760,000 barrels per day to 104.66 million barrels per day, while supply will increase by 970,000 barrels to 105.6 million barrels per day.
In his opinion, against this background, "a further recovery in the production of OPEC+ member countries would exacerbate the problem of overproduction and pressure on prices. And, therefore, to a drop in profits."
At the same time, Valery Andrianov notes, a reduction in production by the OPEC+ alliance would not help curb the growth of global supply and keep prices from falling. After all, production is being increased by countries that have not joined this deal, primarily the United States. In other words, if such a decision were made, OPEC+ members would simply continue to lose their market niches, but would not be able to increase oil and gas revenues.
— Therefore, the only reasonable strategy is to "lie low" and wait for further developments. It is clear that such actions are not very effective and call into question the very meaning of OPEC +'s continued existence. But the dissolution of the quota waiver deal would have even more negative consequences, as it would lead to a significantly greater increase in supply, in particular, due to increased production in Saudi Arabia, and to a rapid decline in prices. Now, in an already turbulent world, is not the best time for such commodity and price wars, the expert believes.
According to Tamara Safonova, Director General of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector (NAANS-Media), OPEC+ countries have not deviated from the earlier decision of November 2, 2025 to suspend production increases in January, February and March 2026.
"This decision confirms the expediency of the chosen course to maintain stability and price parity in the global oil market," she notes.
The expert recalled that, according to the OPEC report, according to the results for October 2025, the decrease in production by the alliance amounted to 37 thousand tons. barrels per day.
Global oil production in October 2025, according to calculations by NUANCE Media, amounted to 105.7 million barrels per day, while demand was 106.6 million barrels per day, meaning the deficit was 0.9 million barrels per day.
—However, at the moment, traders are more focused on geopolitical factors when forming stock quotes and underestimate the fundamental indicators of supply and demand, which leads to underestimation of world oil prices," the expert believes.
It is difficult to argue with the decision of OPEC+, investors are waiting for the resolution of the geopolitical situation, Ekaterina Kosareva added. In her opinion, a lot will now depend on political decisions in the framework of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Therefore, it is more than premature to talk about price forecasts.
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