- Статьи
- World
- In a hasty mess: The EU is afraid to include sanctions against China and India in the 20th package
In a hasty mess: The EU is afraid to include sanctions against China and India in the 20th package
The European Union expects to adopt the 20th package of anti-Russian sanctions by the end of this year, Izvestia found out. Despite US pressure, there will be no large-scale secondary restrictions against India and China.: The EU cannot agree on the issue of pressure on Russia's trading partners. The confiscation of frozen Russian assets is also unlikely due to the negative consequences of this step, analysts say. The sanctions are likely to be related to the further disconnection of banks from SWIFT and stricter restrictions on the supply of dual-use technologies. However, even the 19th package has not yet been approved, although it has been agreed with the United States. And Washington is in no hurry to introduce its new restrictions, despite the tightening of rhetoric against Russia.
The EU is preparing the 20th package of sanctions
The European Union may adopt the 20th package of anti-Russian restrictions by the end of this year, the European Parliament told Izvestia.
— Discussions on a possible 20th package have not yet reached a specific stage. Its adoption is possible before the end of this year. However, at the moment, the EU is focused on finalizing the 19th package of sanctions against Russia in close coordination with the United States," Tomasz Zdechowski, an MEP from the Czech Republic and a member of the European People's Party, told Izvestia.
The probability of the adoption of new sanctions packages by the end of 2025 was confirmed to Izvestia by the EP deputy from Luxembourg, Fernand Kartheiser. According to him, they will become less and less impressive.
— The EU's economic war against Russia has reached a dead end. This is a disastrous result for a policy that three and a half years ago was aimed at achieving a quick victory over Russia," the politician stressed.
At the same time, the EU is running out of space to impose anti-Russian restrictions. The MEP from the Czech Republic, Ivan David, told Izvestia that the preparation of further sanctions packages is an increasingly obvious manifestation of helplessness. However, according to Tomasz Zdechowski, the EU still has the potential to expand restrictions— "primarily in the areas of finance, technology transfer and access to essential goods."
Brussels will indeed move towards further disconnecting Russian banks from SWIFT, tightening the rules for counterparties and prohibiting the supply of technological products, primarily related to artificial intelligence, believes Ekaterina Arapova, head of the research program at the Institute of International Studies, Deputy Dean of the MGIMO Faculty of International Relations at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia.
At the same time, Russia has already taken measures to compensate for the limitations in the field of technology through internal development. In particular, as Arapova emphasizes, the Russian Federation has already moved ahead in the issue of the effectiveness of supercomputers and is working to replace the production of other critical components.
Fernand Kartheiser believes that the EU can also confiscate frozen Russian assets worth €200 billion. However, there is no consensus on this issue.
— It is far from clear whether all member states will agree with this, knowing full well that such a step would seriously damage Europe's reputation in international financial markets. In addition, Russia may soon demand repayment of the debt and begin legal proceedings in this regard," the MEP said.
Ekaterina Arapova believes that the probability of a scenario with the confiscation of frozen assets tends to zero. The European Union does not want to be the first to take such a step, as it will cause irreparable damage to its reputation. Concerns about Russia's response cannot be discounted either.: European companies also have assets in our country. Earlier it became known that Moscow would take sensitive retaliatory measures. In particular, the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, said that in the event of the confiscation of its assets, Russia would be guided by the principle of reciprocity with the right of reply. According to the diplomat, it may apply to Western funds and property in Russian jurisdiction.
Secondary sanctions against India and China
In the West, there is increasing talk of secondary sanctions against Russia's trading partners, primarily buyers of its energy resources. The United States has already started using this tactic: in August, duties of 50% were imposed on India. The hawks in the American Congress even propose to set tariffs of 500% against countries that buy oil from the Russian Federation. According to open data, its main importers are India and China.
According to the Financial Times, the Trump administration is calling on the EU to impose one hundred percent tariffs on Chinese and Indian goods. In its previous sanctions packages, Brussels limited itself to blacklisting individual enterprises and legal entities in these countries.
The issue of imposing large-scale secondary sanctions against India and China was indeed considered by the EU Council, Fernand Kartheiser told Izvestia. However, Brussels refused such measures because of the danger of a trade war.
— I am almost sure that such possibilities have been considered in the EU Council. However, the European Union cannot afford to enter into trade wars with China or India. Therefore, I rule out the possibility of imposing large—scale secondary sanctions against these countries," Kartheiser said.
According to Tomasz Zdechowski, the EU is currently "not considering the possibility of taking large-scale measures of this kind." Instead, Brussels will continue to target specific businesses and organizations that help Russia circumvent existing sanctions.
In 2024, China's share in EU trade was 14.6%, India's 2.3%. In total, the share of these countries is only slightly lower than the volume of trade exchange between the European Union and the United States (17.3%). It is important that the trade turnover between the EU and India has increased by almost 90% over the past decade, and Brussels has also become a leading foreign investor in India.
The introduction of full-scale secondary tariffs against India and China will be a "shot in the head" for the EU, Ekaterina Arapova is sure.
— In recent years, there has been no significant increase in purchases of dual-use goods and technologies due to parallel imports to Russia due to import substitution. The EU is already too late, they may not get the expected effect now, but they will lose the market of China and India," the expert stressed.
Such measures will also have political consequences, as they will bring the BRICS countries closer together and force other developing countries to think about strengthening their own economic sovereignty.
Discussions on the 19th package
Brussels is currently finalizing the 19th package of restrictions, which the European Council will consider on September 26. Based on statements by European politicians, it is expected to strengthen measures against Russia's "shadow fleet", replenish the list of sanctioned Russian banks, as well as ban any transactions with Rosneft and Gazprom Neft. It currently does not provide for large-scale secondary sanctions.
According to the head of the European Diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, the EU will also impose restrictions on the Russian Mir payment system. The humanitarian sphere will also be banned: the EU may add Nikita Anisimov, rector of the Higher School of Economics, to the sanctions list, the media reported. This is not the first attempt to undermine the rights of people who are not directly connected with government authorities. Earlier, Hungary blocked attempts to impose restrictions against Patriarch Kirill and some Russian sports teams.
The EU places special hopes on coordinating new sanctions measures with the United States. Earlier, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barraud said that the 19th package had been agreed with Washington. In early September, an EU delegation led by the association's special representative for sanctions, David O'Sullivan, visited the United States, where they held talks with the US Treasury. Then Washington made a condition: The United States will not take new measures against Russia while Europe buys oil from it.
The European Union has not been able to abandon Russian black gold. In 2022, the EU imposed an embargo on seaborne oil imports from Russia, preserving the possibility of purchasing raw materials through the Druzhba oil pipeline for Hungary and Slovakia (previously it was also used by the Czech Republic). At a meeting with Vladimir Zelensky in New York, US President Donald Trump said he would ask Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to stop importing Russian oil. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto replied that Budapest "cannot change the reality of its geographical location." Without Russia, it is impossible to ensure the supply of oil to Hungary.
Budapest, as well as Bratislava, have repeatedly blocked the imposition of sanctions against Russia. For example, Slovakia delayed the adoption of the 18th package of sanctions for a month in July. Now the European Commission is already preparing to put pressure on European "frontiers" to force them to accept the 19th set of restrictions.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
