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- Seven troubles — one package: the Russian Foreign Ministry announced the exhaustion of the potential of EU sanctions
Seven troubles — one package: the Russian Foreign Ministry announced the exhaustion of the potential of EU sanctions
The European Commission's proposals on the 19th package of sanctions have once again shown that the EU sanctions policy has long been exhausted and is not yielding results, Vladislav Maslennikov, director of the Department of European Problems at the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia. At the same time, Brussels intends to abandon Russian LNG ahead of schedule. Although the abandonment of Russian energy resources has already cost the EU economies more than 500 billion euros, Rodion Miroshnik, Ambassador-at-Large of the Russian Foreign Ministry, tells Izvestia. At the same time, the United States is already preparing to increase supplies of liquefied natural gas to Europe. According to experts, the Europeans will suffer from the cessation of Russian gas imports, and Moscow will quickly redirect supplies. In addition, the EU is planning restrictions against banks and cryptocurrency transactions.
What will be included in the 19th package of sanctions against Russia
The European Union is preparing to adopt the 19th package of sanctions, the approval of which has been stalling for some time. The first mention of the new restrictions against Moscow dates back to August 11, when the head of EU diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, first announced its development. Direct work on the package began in September. On September 16, representatives of the EU countries were supposed to meet to discuss sanctions, but suddenly the topic was removed from the agenda.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
As a result, on September 19, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, presented new proposals. She said that the new package may include strengthening measures against Russia's "shadow fleet", targeted measures against Russian banks, closing sanctions "loopholes" through crypto transactions, tightening the price ceiling for Russian oil, banning any transactions with Rosneft and Gazprom Neft, and other restrictions. Before its adoption, the European bureaucracy will have to go through several rounds of discussions and traditionally face resistance from Hungary and Slovakia. In general, the picture is standard for the European Union.
The European Commission's proposals on the 19th package of sanctions have once again shown that the EU sanctions policy has long been exhausted and is not yielding the results that Brussels hoped for, Vladislav Maslennikov, director of the Department of European Problems at the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia.
— It has been exhausting itself for a long time, and what is offered in the 19th package once again demonstrates this. According to the content of each package of sanctions, it is clear that there are fewer and fewer options left for what can be done," the diplomat said. — It remains only to shout loudly for the hundredth time that "sanctions are working" and that by jumping into the swamp of dependence on much more expensive American energy resources, the EU can finally "turn off the gas tap" from Russia.
This time, Brussels has to synchronize its actions with the G7 countries, as it already did during the introduction of the 14th package of restrictions. It is important to understand that, in principle, it is important for the G7 countries and the EU to coordinate restrictions. They control reserve currencies, correspondent banks, and shipping insurance. Without joint action, sanctioned companies can flow into jurisdictions with more lenient regimes, which reduces the effectiveness of restrictions.
At the same time, the delay in the 19th package is primarily due to stricter requirements for European colleagues from the United States. It is important for the head of the White House, Donald Trump, to demonstrate pressure on Russia. This is linked to a common track for the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. Trump believes that it will be easier for him to negotiate with Russia if Moscow loses part of its income from the sale of energy resources. Washington has repeatedly called on Brussels to impose tariffs against China and India for trade with Russia, but von der Leyen did not include this proposal in the 19th package of sanctions. She limited herself to another US proposal — to accelerate the abandonment of Russian liquefied natural gas.
Will Europe abandon Russian LNG
At the moment, Russian LNG exports to EU countries are regulated by the 14th package of sanctions, which was adopted back in June 2024. At that time, a ban was imposed on the transshipment and re-export of liquefied natural gas in EU ports, as well as a ban on new investments in Russian LNG projects under construction. In June 2025, the European Commission proposed to legislate a complete cessation of LNG imports by the end of 2027. After pressure from Washington, the date was shifted by a year — now, as part of the 19th package, if it is adopted in the form presented by the European Commission, the EU must abandon gas by January 1, 2027.
According to Eurostat, for the first quarter of 2025, the United States (50.7%), Russia (17%) and Qatar (10.8%) are among the largest LNG suppliers in the EU. At the same time, the share of the Russian Federation in the total gas imports of the association decreased to 14% by the second quarter of 2025. Valery Andrianov, an associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia that in 2024, Russian LNG supplies to EU countries amounted to 21.5 billion cubic meters. For comparison, the total gas consumption in the European Union last year was 332 billion cubic meters, and the import of all gas was 273 billion cubic meters.
Thus, Russian LNG accounted for approximately 6.4% of total consumption and slightly less than 8% of external supplies. In other words, this is not a critical, but an important source of ensuring the energy balance in the EU, Andrianov noted. France, Belgium and Spain are the main importers of Russian LNG in Europe. The latter has already announced a reduction in purchases.
— Of course, Europe, including countries such as France, Spain and Belgium, will survive without Russian LNG, the only question is at what price? There are contractual obligations, if they are not fulfilled, you will need to pay for the costs. Russia will easily be able to diversify its supplies," Olga Orlova, head of the Industry department at the Institute of Oil and Gas Technologies, told Izvestia.
Brussels' proposal to ban the import of Russian LNG is "a diplomatic dance around the deal that the European Commission concluded with Trump," said Alexei Grivach, deputy head of the National Energy Security Fund. Under the deal between Brussels and Washington, the EU will have to purchase $750 billion worth of energy supplies from the United States over the next three years. At the same time, if the abandonment of Russian LNG for Europe had been a painless and profitable decision, the transition to American liquefied natural gas would have occurred a long time ago, the expert emphasized.
At the same time, the United States plans to significantly increase its LNG production capacity by 2028-2030. The Ministry of Energy of the country believes that LNG exports should double by 2030, from 80-90 million tons per year to 190 million tons. At the same time, LNG plants are being built with borrowed funds, which must be backed by long-term contracts. According to Orlova, there will be few people willing to sign such a contract with representatives of a country that "either introduces unprecedented tariffs or cancels them."
Alexander Frolov, Deputy Director General of the Institute of National Energy, explained the mechanism by which American liquefied natural gas enters Europe in a conversation with Izvestia. Thus, European and Asian companies are engaged in LNG transportation. Interestingly, Washington does not have the tools that would allow it to control gas flows from the United States, and the main earnings of LNG producers are the liquefaction of the gas itself and the time of its shipment to the ship.
— If it is profitable to import it to Europe, it will be transported to Europe. If it is profitable to import it to Asia, it will be transported to Asia. If, say, China introduces and maintains restrictions on the purchase of American gas, and such restrictions are currently in effect, then these volumes will look for some other market, for example, Europe," Frolov said.
European companies are primarily involved in increasing the supply of liquefied natural gas to Europe. Accordingly, there is no one in the EU to oppose the decision to reduce Russian LNG supplies, the expert concluded.
At the same time, the abandonment of Russian energy resources has already cost European countries more than 500 billion euros, Rodion Miroshnik, Ambassador-at-large of the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia.
— For example, they (European politicians. They themselves stated that the rejection of Russian energy resources cost them more than half a trillion euros. And at the same time, they continue to demonstrate this not as significant damage to their own national economy or the economies of their states, but as a kind of achievement, because they jumped off the gas needle of Russia, which did not interfere in any way, but worked exclusively to boost the economies of such major countries as Germany, France, and others," the diplomat said.
According to him, the harm from sanctions does not prevent European politicians from making "bravura" statements and sacrificing their own national interests in favor of Russophobic politics.
Oil price ceiling and sanctions against Russian banks
In addition, von der Leyen recalled the lowering of the ceiling on oil prices.
Starting from September 3, 2025, the ceiling on Russian oil prices was lowered from $60 to $47.6 per barrel. This decision was made by the European Commission as part of the 18th package of sanctions against Russia. For contracts concluded before July 20, 2025, which corresponded to the old limit of $ 60, there is a transition period until October 18. At the same time, the ceiling for petroleum products remained unchanged: $100 per barrel for light fractions and $45 for heavy fractions.
Switzerland, the United Kingdom, as well as Canada, which did not buy Russian oil anyway, and Japan also joined these sanctions. At the same time, Tokyo said that the ban does not apply to raw materials from the Russian Sakhalin-2 project. Thus, Japan will continue to purchase oil from this project.
In addition, the European Commission has introduced a new mechanism for regularly reviewing the price ceiling. Starting from July 15, the average price of Russian oil will be calculated every 22 weeks, and the ceiling will be set at 15% below this value. The next review is scheduled for January 15, 2026, and the final evaluation of the mechanism should be carried out by April 15, 2026.
According to Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of VMT Consult, this measure had a restrained impact on the market. According to her, Hungary and Slovakia are still buying Russian oil in Europe, which is supplied via the Druzhba oil pipeline. As for other importers, in particular India, China and Turkey, we should expect an increase in the discount on Russian oil in the range of $ 2-3 per barrel.
In principle, Russia's relations with partners from friendly countries will not change the European "price ceiling" for oil, because unlike the United States, the European Union does not impose secondary sanctions against third countries for trade and transactions with persons under sanctions, Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at FreedomFinance Global, told Izvestia.
Do not forget that the 19th package of sanctions also includes a ban on any financial transactions with a number of banks from Russia and third countries that help circumvent restrictions. For companies and EU citizens, this means that such financial institutions cannot transfer money, open or hold correspondent accounts, make payments and clearing, and perform other actions.
— It is still unclear what measures will be taken against Russian banks and which banks. But it can be assumed that if we are talking about the complete termination of any relations between legal entities and individuals from the European Union with Russian banks, it is possible that all Russian banks will be prohibited from transactions with euros, at least with non—cash euros," Milchakova said.
She stressed that in this case it would be a small loss for Russian banks, since few people are already engaged in lending in euros, and Russian exporters themselves are under sanctions and are switching to paying for supplies of raw materials in rubles. New restrictions create problems for Hungary and Slovakia, which pay for the import of pipeline oil from Russia. In this situation, banks from non-EU countries friendly to the Russian Federation can come to their aid, the expert believes.
Among other things, the European Commission also plans to impose restrictions on crypto transactions, which are actively used "as a bypass payment corridor."
Vladimir Skalkin, an associate professor at the Department of Economic Theory at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia that no systems are capable of intercepting cryptocurrency transfers.
He noted that there is a digital ruble, yuan and other currencies. As long as they have not moved to the stage where they are controlled by international payment giants involved in the implementation of these sanctions, they can be used.
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