Trade imbalance: every second retailer expects lower profits in 2026

Every second Russian retailer is preparing to reduce profits and profitability in 2026, Izvestia has learned. The number of companies expecting business growth turned out to be the lowest in the last 10 years — only 29%. The business mood this year has become the worst since 2016, 79% rate the current situation as "difficult" or "difficult". Sellers of household appliances and electronics have the hardest time of all, pharmacies and grocery retailers have the best business. Izvestia dealt with the challenges faced by retailers and what to expect for the consumer market.

Why Retailers expect lower profits

Almost every second (44%) retailer expects lower profits and profitability next year. This is stated in a joint study by the audit and consulting company B1 (formerly Ernst & Young) and Redis Crew. Izvestia got acquainted with its results.

The number of companies predicting business growth turned out to be the lowest in the last 10 years — only 29%. Another 27% of respondents say that nothing will change in 2026.

The sentiment and expectations of organizations in 2025 turned out to be the worst in the entire history of monitoring, the report says. The average indicator of the retail barometer, which measures the mood of companies in the retail industry, was 5.7 points out of 10. The majority (79%) of retailers rated the business situation as "difficult" and "difficult," the study says.

More than 100 representatives of 82 retail chains took part in the survey, these are fashion segment (45%), grocery retail (17%), DIY and Household retailers (household goods, 11%), household appliances and electronics (7%), drogeri (6%), pharmacy chains (5%), and another 9% are sellers of pet products, auto supplies, and online commerce. Companies rated their current status on a scale from one to 10.

Sellers of household appliances and electronics rated the business the worst (3.3 points), and pharmacies (7.3 points) and grocery retail (7.2 points) were the best, according to the study. Clothing and shoe sellers were in the middle of the scale (5.2 points), household goods and accessories (6.2 points).

At the same time, the pharmacy segment is most noticeably tuned into "survival mode" — three quarters of respondents believe that it will be harder for them in 2026. There are 54% of such respondents in the fashion segment, 50% in household appliances, 43% and 40% in grocery and clothing retail, respectively. Representatives of household goods have the most "conservative" view — 67% of respondents say that there will be no changes.

More than half (56%) of retailers maintained or increased EBITDA (reflecting the company's earnings before taxes, interest and depreciation), a third lost more than 1 percentage point. According to the survey, 59% of companies faced a lack of liquidity, especially in the segments of fashion, home appliances and electronics and accessories. To solve the problem, retailers most often work with lenders and suppliers and attract external financing, the study says.

Golden cutoff: Russians have become less likely to buy jewelry

What is the reason and will this trend continue?

For most companies, the growth in the LFL of the average receipt (the average amount a customer spends per purchase in comparable stores) turned out to be lower than inflation, and 18% even recorded a drop, the study says.

This year turned out to be a difficult one for the DIY market amid high interest rates and a slowdown in construction, the Director of Investor Relations at All Instruments told Izvestia.<url>" Alexey Lukyanov. He noted that the company was able to overcome the difficulties by diversifying its customer base and increasing its product range. This allowed us to show growth above the market in the first half of the year and increase shares in key segments, including the B2B segment, where demand from industry and the service sector offset the slowdown in the construction segment, said the top manager.

— This year, the company has focused on operational efficiency and cost optimization. This allowed, despite the slowdown in revenue growth, to increase EBITDA and net profit, as well as reduce net debt in the second quarter," said Alexey Lukyanov.

The Fix Price network continues to develop according to its strategy, not only in Russia, but also in other countries, its representative told Izvestia. Costs and competition are rising, but the company is far from being pessimistic, he added.

— Retail has always been a highly competitive business. Today, competition is intensifying with the development of online commerce, but this is normal - the market is developing. We do not share pessimism, although, of course, we will not say that everything is simple. The growth rate of the business has slowed down, — said the representative of the network.

What factors influence the revenue of companies

In the first half of the year, some grocery retailers saw slower EBITDA growth compared to revenue. For example, X5 Group (Pyaterochka, Chizhik, Perekrestok) had revenue increased by 21.2%, to 2.24 trillion rubles, but EBITDA increased by only 2.3%, to 204.1 billion, a gap of more than nine times, according to the company's IFRS statements.

At O'KEY Group ("OK", "YES!"), with revenue growing by 3.8% (to 109.6 billion rubles), EBITDA remained virtually unchanged, adding only 0.3% to 9.65 billion rubles. At Magnit (Magnit, Dixie, ABC of Taste) This ratio looks better: with revenue growing by 14.6% (to 1.67 trillion), EBITDA increased by 10.7%, to 85.6 billion rubles.

The exception was Lenta, where revenue jumped by 24.3% to 513.9 billion rubles, while EBITDA increased by 29.6% to 38.5 billion rubles.

In the first half of the year, this network maintained high growth rates and financial stability of the business, its representative said. At the same time, the company continues to operate in conditions of declining consumer activity, a "frugal attitude" of customers to spending, and a shortage of personnel in the market, he noted. These trends will determine approaches to work in the future, he added.

A representative of Magnit declined to comment. The O'KEY Group and X5 Group did not respond to the request.

Izvestia also sent a request to the Ministry of Industry and Trade.

Strong move: the size of the scrap collection will grow to 10 million rubles

For some models more powerful than 160 hp, importers will pay almost a thousand times more

Boris Popov, CEO of Rigla, points out that expensive business loans are holding back the pace of development in the technological modernization of pharmaceutical retail, including online platforms and payroll. According to him, the situation is also affected by the high level of inflation of operating expenses.

— "The growth of salaries, rental rates for pharmacy premises, the rising cost of equipment and building materials are outpacing the growth rate of gross profit. I don't see any further development without increasing labor productivity," the top manager clarified.

This year, retailers are facing the consequences of the de facto freezing of consumer and housing loans, added Stanislav Bogdanov, a traitor to the ACORT presidium. This, he said, led to a sharp decline in apartment sales and, as a result, demand for household goods, appliances and large purchases. Savings sentiment has increased due to high deposit rates and high inflation, he added.

The retail situation is affected by the flow of customers to marketplaces, said Zulfiya Shilyaeva, Senior Director and Head of CMWP's Retail Real Estate department. According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the share of marketplaces in the total retail trade by the end of 2024 was 15%. By 2030, this figure could rise to 30-35%, she predicts.

At the same time, consumer spending continues to decrease against the background of the preservation of the savings behavior of the population. According to her, this leads to a decrease in attendance at shopping malls and a drop in tenant turnover.

The number of visitors to shopping malls in January–August 2025 decreased by 3% compared to the same period last year, said Mikhail Vasiliev, head of research and consulting at Focus Technologies.

According to a study by the B1 company, a drop in traffic is critical for 70% of retail chains. Sellers of clothing and footwear feel this problem most acutely (95%). At the same time, grocery retail suffers the least from this.

According to the Central Bank, in August, the consumer sentiment index decreased by 1.8 points year-on-year to 103.2 points, and consumers began to assess the status of their financial situation "somewhat worse" over the past year. They consider the current time to be "less favorable" for large purchases than a month earlier, according to monitoring by the Bank of Russia.

A real revival of retail is possible if the key interest rate is lowered to 10-12%, Zulfiya Shilyaeva believes. The growth dynamics of retail trade turnover is inversely proportional to the key rate, she noted. The prospects for retail in 2026 depend on the general macroeconomic situation and the dynamics in construction, Alexey Lukyanov agrees.