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- Let's buy one, keep six in mind: the average overpayment on a market mortgage has exceeded 21 million
Let's buy one, keep six in mind: the average overpayment on a market mortgage has exceeded 21 million
The overpayment of citizens on market mortgages exceeded 21 million rubles. The average amount of housing loans issued has reached 4.5 million. This is a record in recent years, according to the Central Bank. Against the background of rising prices for new apartments, people have to stretch the loan for almost 26 years. By taking out such a loan at the current 22.4%, a person will pay almost six times more for it. Despite this, Russians continue to take out mortgages based on market conditions in the hope of refinancing the debt at a lower rate in the future. When housing will become more affordable again — in the Izvestia article.
How much do Russians overpay on their mortgages
The average amount of housing loans issued in Russia in the summer reached a maximum of 4.5 million rubles. This is a record since at least the beginning of 2023 (there are no early statistics), according to the data from the Bank of Russia. At the same time, the average mortgage term has also been fluctuating near the maximum in recent months — most people take out such loans for 308 months, or almost 26 years.
One of the main reasons for the increase in loan size is rising housing prices, especially in new buildings, explained Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. In addition, there is a shift towards more expensive deals due to the fact that people prefer to buy apartments on the primary market.
Valery Tumin, Director of Russian and CIS Markets at fam Properties, mentioned other reasons.
— Firstly, in recent years, apartments in large cities have significantly increased in price, primarily in Moscow and St. Petersburg, as well as in the southern regions, where residents of the northern territories are actively moving. Secondly, Russians are trying to purchase more spacious housing, especially after the pandemic, when the demand for additional meters for remote work and family activities has increased," the expert noted.
According to the results of the second quarter of 2025, the average cost per square meter in a new house was approximately 170-185 thousand rubles. That is, on average in Russia, a typical "one-bedroom apartment" of 25-40 meters will cost about 4-7 million rubles, which is exactly consistent with the average loan size. At the same time, typical apartments in Moscow with a similar square footage are much more expensive — the cost exceeds 10 million, Vladimir Chernov added.
Developers, in order to support sales, use various ways to increase the availability of mortgages, but ultimately this leads to an increase in the cost of the project and affects the final prices for consumers, added Vitaliy Kostyukevich, Director of Absolut Bank's retail products department.
At the same time, people apply for the maximum loan term in order to minimize the debt burden. At the same time, according to the requirements of the mortgage standard, a loan cannot be issued for a period of more than 30 years, the expert specified.
Currently, about 50% of mortgage loans are issued for 25-30 years, Vladimir Chernov said. This is a technical compromise that allows you to extend the time so as not to "overload" the family budget at a high rate.
However, an increase in the amount of debt and term increases the total overpayment of the client. The weighted average real mortgage rate on the market in the week from August 18 to 24, 2025 in Russia was about 22.4%. And if a person takes out a loan of 4.5 million rubles with a down payment of 10% (the minimum possible) for 308 months under such conditions, the monthly payment will amount to almost 85 thousand, and the overpayment on the loan will exceed 21.5 million rubles. That is, a person will pay off almost six loans instead of one.
Will housing become more affordable in 2026
Despite the significant overpayment, Russians continue to take out mortgages according to market conditions, even at a rate of about 22%. Currently, about a fifth of housing loans on the market are issued by citizens without a preferential program, said Vitaly Kostyukevich from Absolut Bank.
In the Dom bank.Russia" in July, this share amounted to 10%, said Alexey Kosyakov, Deputy Chairman of the board of the credit institution. Moreover, the volume of concluded transactions exceeded the June figure by 1.6 times. Against the background of expectations of a further reduction in the key interest rate, many clients apply for loans with the expectation of refinancing on more favorable terms, he said.
Today, first of all, Russians with high and stable incomes, including employees of the public sector and large corporations, can afford a market mortgage, said Valery Tumin from fam Properties.
— Russians who are currently taking out mortgages based on market conditions usually also have good arguments: a good discount from the developer or a fairly large down payment on the mortgage, which absorbs up to half the cost of the apartment. This group of citizens is also united by the idea of continuing to increase real estate prices in the country, regardless of the scenarios of Russia's socio-economic development," said economist Andrey Barkhota.
The continued demand for mortgages, even in conditions of expensive borrowing, is also an indicator of citizens' confidence in long—term housing investments, Valery Tumin noted.
Nevertheless, market mortgages have now become a fairly niche product with a narrow target audience, added Evgeny Shavnev, CEO of the Flip real estate investment company. This is evidenced by a 70% drop in demand over the year. However, in the medium term, we can expect some recovery in demand, the expert believes. To do this, banks must reduce rates to at least 14-15%.
A rate of 10-12% per annum can be considered comfortable for the borrower, added Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Finance Global. However, according to him, such values cannot be expected earlier than the second half of 2026. The Central Bank's rate may fall to 14% by the end of this year and to 12% next year, predicts Anna Zemlyanova, chief analyst at Sovcombank.
Housing prices are also unlikely to drop sharply, says Valery Tumin. But the growth will become more moderate. Thus, the availability of apartments for citizens will increase due not only to rates, but also to the growth of real incomes, the expansion of preferential programs and the development of a new housing format in the regions.
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