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- Home threshold: the budget will spend up to 60 billion after the introduction of new family mortgage rates
Home threshold: the budget will spend up to 60 billion after the introduction of new family mortgage rates
The Russian budget risks spending up to 60 billion rubles in just six months due to the new family mortgage rate system, Izvestia found out. The plans to introduce different percentages for each region, depending on the income of residents, were announced by State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin. According to him, the initiative was supported by the president. This will increase the availability of housing in the regions. However, 60 billion is a significant part of all spending on the state program. Almost every new mortgage in the country is already funded by the budget — and, in fact, with taxpayers' money. Whether the Ministry of Finance will go to such expenses, given the budget deficit of 4.9 trillion, is in the Izvestia article.
How much can budget expenses increase?
The budget may spend up to 60 billion rubles in an additional six months due to the introduction of a differentiated family mortgage rate, Izvestia found out. Its costs can grow by 40 million rubles for every billion disbursements, the Analytics research center has calculated. Business. The right." At the same time, by the end of the year, Russians will have issued such loans for about 1.5 trillion rubles, experts estimated.
The issue of differentiation of family mortgage rates has been discussed for several months. At first, the initiative was voiced in the spring of 2025, when the State Duma recommended that the relevant ministries consider the possibility of linking the terms of the program to the region of residence and the number of children in the family. Later, the idea was supported by Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin, noting that the Cabinet is working on options.
In August, plans to introduce different rates on family mortgages for each region, depending on the income of residents, said Chairman of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin. He stressed that now the percentages are the same for Moscow and for the subjects of the Russian Federation with much lower salaries. According to him, the initiative was supported by the president, and it is currently being discussed in the government.
However, with the introduction of the new rate system, budget expenditures on financing the program will increase significantly. In the center of "Analytics. Business. Pravoe calculated three possible scenarios for Izvestia.
Leveling the level of interest rates and debt burden for Moscow. In this case, mortgage rates are reduced so that the debt burden (the percentage of wages allocated to loans) on borrowers in the regions is the same as in the capital. In poor regions with expensive housing, this means almost symbolic percentages, for example, about 2% in Krasnodar. Housing is becoming affordable for everyone, but it will be very expensive for the state. Budget expenditures may grow by 48-60 billion rubles in the first half of the year.
Linking the rate to the salary. Here it depends on how much the salary in the region is lower or higher than in Moscow. The less people earn, the lower the mortgage interest. This also greatly improves housing affordability, while government spending is lower than in the first option, but still noticeable. They may grow by 20-50 billion rubles by the end of the year.
A step-by-step betting grid. In this case, the interest is assigned incrementally, depending on the average Russian salary. So, in rich subjects with incomes above 120% of the national average, the rate will be 6%, with incomes 100-120% — 5,5%, 80-100% — 5%, 60-80% — 4,5%, and in the lowest—income regions with salaries less than 60% of the average - 4%. This will make it possible to equalize the availability of housing for families in different parts of the country. Budget expenditures may grow by 5-22 billion rubles in the first half of the year.
The average mortgage was used for the analysis: for an apartment of 50 sq. m. m in a new building with a 20% down payment for 20 years. Its availability in different regions at a rate of 6% now varies greatly.
The new system of family mortgage rates will pay off if their maximum level is raised to 10%, according to the experts of the research center. This would give the budget the opportunity to adjust rates for different regions, but would save it about 600 million rubles for every billion mortgage loans. In six months, it would have saved almost a billion rubles in this way, which is not much, but then the changes would not have taken the budget into negative territory.
How will the differentiation of family mortgage rates work?
"Every additional ten billion is a significant item of expenditure in the state budget," said Oleg Abelev, head of the analytical department at the Rikom—Trust investment company.
For example, 60 billion rubles, according to the HSE, is comparable to the expenditure of the Russian Federation budget on civil science in the areas of "Development of space activities of the Russian Federation" (57.8 billion rubles), "New nuclear and energy technologies" (25.4 billion rubles), as well as "Industrial support for transport mobility" (66.3 billion rubles).
If regions have different mortgage rates, housing will become more affordable where incomes are lower, such as in Siberia, the Far East and the North Caucasus, said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. At a rate of 2-3%, the monthly payment may be reduced by a quarter, and families with incomes of 60-80 thousand rubles will be able to actually take out a mortgage. At the same time, this will boost demand for new buildings, which may cause prices to rise by 5-10% and some of the benefits to disappear. In the third option described, in rich regions like Moscow, on the contrary, mortgages may become less affordable as rates rise.
For the federal budget, expenses can also become serious, especially against the background of an increase in its deficit — in July it increased by 1.2 trillion rubles, according to the Ministry of Finance. Currently, the shortage has already reached 4.9 trillion with a forecast of 3.8 trillion.
In any case, the new rate system means a multiple increase in program costs for the treasury. In 2025, 637 billion rubles will be allocated to support family mortgages, said Evgeny Shavnev, CEO of the Flip real estate investment company. 60 billion rubles (in just six months) is one tenth of this amount, which is a lot. At the same time, family mortgages account for almost 80-90% of disbursements from all preferential programs, which means that the budget pays for almost every housing loan issued in the country.
Ultimately, the Ministry of Finance may simply not support the rate change, according to economist Andrei Barkhota. Izvestia sent a request to the agency, as well as to the Ministry of Construction and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
Since the beginning of the year, according to Dom.Russian Federation", a family mortgage of 1.1 trillion rubles was issued. At the same time, mortgage issuance due to the new rate system may increase by 25% by the end of the year, Andrei Barkhota concluded.
In general, the initiative is quite controversial, because the income level of the population varies within each region, said Tatyana Reshetnikova, deputy head of the mortgage department of the federal company Etagi. In subjects with high average salaries, families with low incomes may be cut off from the state program. It is more fair to take this factor into account when determining the rate, as well as to support representatives of sought-after professions.
When discussing the idea of differentiated family mortgage rates, it is important to take into account not only the region and the number of children, but also where the family lives.: in a big city, small town or rural area, added Vera Kononova, an economist at the Institute for Integrated Strategic Studies. The State Duma has already proposed to the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Construction to consider different conditions for such settlements. In the future, the development of small and medium-sized cities will increase tax revenues, which will help offset budget expenditures on preferential mortgages.
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