Sleepless mode: US investors are ready to return to the Russian market
The attention of American investors is focused on the upcoming meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Alaska. Many of them expect progress that will allow them to return to the Russian market. First of all, we are talking about companies related to aviation, the high-tech sector, energy equipment, and cosmetics, Robert Agee, head of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Russia, told Izvestia. American business is waiting for the lifting of sanctions and the resumption of direct flights between the countries. There is a chance for the restrictions to be lifted, at least partially. However, this will require congressional approval, and now not only Democrats, but also some Republicans are against rapprochement with the Russian Federation. What will change after August 15 is in the Izvestia article.
American business is waiting for the outcome of the meeting between Putin and Trump
Progress in resolving the Ukrainian crisis is certainly expected from the upcoming meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Alaska. The cessation of hostilities and the path to a peaceful settlement may pave the way for the normalization of economic ties between Moscow and Washington.
"We expect progress towards a peaceful settlement of the conflict," the head of the American Chamber of Commerce in the Russian Federation (AmCham) told Izvestia Robert Agee. — According to our regular AmCham Pulse Survey, four years ago, 70% of American companies considered the Russian market to be strategic, but unfortunately, no one can take advantage of these opportunities without advancing the issue of peaceful settlement. As a business, we very much welcome that the meeting will take place, and we very much hope that there will be improvements towards a settlement.
The American business has lost over $300 billion due to withdrawal from Russia. The main losses fell on IT and media ($123 billion), the consumer sector and healthcare lost $94 billion, financial companies lost $71 billion, industry missed $26 billion, energy — $10 billion, the Russian Direct Investment Fund analyzed. Although it is worth noting that most American companies continue to operate in Russia, says Robert Agee.
— Only those who could not physically work here because of the US and EU sanctions left. It is these companies that are particularly looking forward to a peaceful settlement as the first step and very much hope that the second step will be the lifting of sanctions," added the head of AMCAM. — American companies cannot invest now. But, as I said, those who had to leave due to the inability to work in the Russian market due to sanctions, of course, would like to return to this job. These are the aviation industry, the high-tech sector, the energy equipment sector, and cosmetics.
Aviation may be a particularly promising area, given the fact that Russian and American representatives have already raised the issue of resuming direct flights at bilateral talks in Istanbul this year. Earlier it was reported that they could be launched before the end of 2025.
— Of course, we would like this (the launch of direct flights. — Izvestia). This is in the interests of both ordinary people and businesses. But the issue of flight safety and the lifting of sanctions on the purchase of aircraft and spare parts is a higher priority," said Robert Agee.
On February 12, Putin and Trump had their first telephone conversation, after which the Russian and US delegations met twice in Saudi Arabia. Several rounds of technical consultations on normalization of bilateral relations were held in Istanbul.
Promising projects of the Russian Federation and the USA
It is not yet known whether American companies will participate in the upcoming Eastern Economic Forum, which will be held in Vladivostok on September 3-6, but entrepreneurs from the United States have arrived at the SPIEF. And this year their number has increased by almost a third. Moreover, for the first time in several years, a business dialogue between the two countries took place at the St. Petersburg forum. The organizers were the American Chamber of Commerce, headed by Agee, and the Agency for Strategic Initiatives (ASI). The speakers of Amcham and ASI discussed cooperation in the fields of investment, industry, energy, technology and infrastructure.
The Russian Federation and the United States have good prospects for resuming cooperation in the energy sector. At the same time, it would be possible to start in the Arctic. James Tidmarsh, an expert in international commercial law, claims that 13% of the world's undiscovered oil reserves and 30% of undiscovered gas reserves are concentrated in the region. At the same time, according to him, in 2011, the Russian Federation and the United States signed an agreement on exploration and drilling in the Russian Arctic, but the partnership was suspended in 2014 after Crimea joined the Russian Federation.
In addition, in February, Vladimir Putin announced his readiness to cooperate with the United States in projects for the extraction of rare earth metals in Russia. It should be understood that the interaction between Moscow and Washington is not reduced to zero even in the current conditions. Russia exports nuclear fuel (enriched uranium, plutonium), palladium, and fertilizers to the United States. The media reported that supplies of Russian carbamide (urea) They doubled due to Trump's introduction of 10% duties against most countries of the world.
Dmitry Peskov, the Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for Digital and Technological Development, also previously noted the potential for cooperation, for example, between Yakutia and Alaska, in large—scale environmental protection and terraforming projects. Perhaps the meeting between Putin and Trump in Anchorage on August 15 will inspire potential in other "Arctic projects."
According to some experts, the Russian Federation and the United States could agree on the construction of a tunnel under the Bering Strait, capable of connecting Eurasia and North America. It would contribute to the development of the rich resources of Siberia and the Far East, where the largest deposits are located. Another area is space. In July, the head of Roscosmos arrived in the United States for the first time in eight years to meet with the leadership of NASA. Dmitry Bakanov and Sean Duffy discussed the future work of the International Space Station, as well as joint exploration of the Moon and deep space.
How likely is the lifting of sanctions
An active return of business is possible only if sanctions are lifted or at least some restrictions are relaxed. According to Victoria Zhuravleva, head of the Center for North American Studies and Deputy Director for Scientific Work at IMEMO RAS, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump may discuss this issue in Anchorage.
— After the conflict is resolved, the example of the United States can also encourage American partners in Europe. If Washington takes this step, it will be important for us," she told Izvestia.
But the lifting of economic restrictions will require congressional approval, and now it is Republicans who make up the majority of it, that is, the party members of the American president.
"While he has a Republican congress that is more or less controlled, theoretically he may well pass some new bill that would allow at least partial cooperation with Russia, for example, in areas that best meet the interests of the United States," Victoria Zhuravleva explained.
Nevertheless, the opposition is putting pressure on Trump. At the same time, not only Democrats, but also some Republicans are putting pressure on the president. For example, Senator Lindsey Graham (listed as a terrorist and extremist in the Russian Federation) proposed imposing duties of 500% on products coming to the United States from countries that purchase oil of Russian origin.
— There are people like Lindsey Graham, who bows and kisses Trump's feet at every opportunity. But now he's a super hawk too. Trump is now facing resistance from both Democrats and Republicans. So to some extent, he is alone in his position," Peter Kuznik, director of the Institute for Nuclear Research at the American University in Washington, tells Izvestia. — The better Trump holds a meeting with Putin, the more opposition there will be. This is the sad reality.
Under pressure, the American leader is apparently trying to maneuver. In July, Trump toughened his rhetoric against Moscow and even threatened new sanctions if there was no progress on the Ukrainian settlement. The deadline for making a decision on new restrictions was set for August 8. However, no new restrictions have been followed so far, and instead the parties agreed to meet in Alaska. At the same time, Trump increased duties on Indian goods because New Delhi buys Russian oil.
Nevertheless, after the return of Donald Trump to the White House, the trade turnover between our countries began to grow. In May, imports from Russia reached their highest levels since March 2023. According to American statistics, it increased by 9.6% to $539.6 million. Although, in general, bilateral trade is in decline. According to the office of the U.S. Trade Representative, in 2023-2024, its volume decreased by 25%, amounting to $ 5.2 billion.
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