"Now is the best moment for a meeting between Putin and Trump"
Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump may agree on a partial lifting of United States sanctions against Russia. Thomas Graham, an honored researcher at the American Council on Foreign Relations and former special assistant to U.S. President George W. Bush on Russia and Eurasia, told Izvestia about this. The outcome of the meeting scheduled for August 15 may also be an agreement on the development of two roadmaps — on Ukraine and the normalization of bilateral relations, the analyst believes. However, the meeting in Alaska is only the beginning of the crisis resolution process, which is unlikely to be fully completed before the end of this year. Thomas Graham told Izvestia in an interview about what other issues Putin and Trump might discuss and where a new meeting might take place.
"If there is a second meeting, it may take place in Russia, even in Chukotka"
— There are only a few days left before the meeting of the presidents of Russia and the United States. The decision on it was made last week after talks between Vladimir Putin and Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff, held in the Kremlin on August 6. Why did they decide to appoint her now?
— A rather productive meeting took place between Witkoff and Putin. It seems that Witkoff has brought some proposals that Putin is interested in. That is why an agreement was reached on a meeting between our presidents.
Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomes US President Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff during a meeting in Moscow.
— Moscow allowed a personal meeting of the leaders, however, to fix some major agreements that will eventually be reached. What could have triggered the negotiations so soon?
— It was, of course, unexpected that such an agreement appeared. Our countries have been in contact for several months now. Now there is a situation in which each side understands that a face-to-face meeting would be productive at this stage.
— Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump are scheduled to meet on August 15 in Alaska. Previously, it was expected that such a summit would be held, for example, in a Middle Eastern country. In your opinion, why was Alaska chosen?
— I think they want to emphasize that this will be a strictly bilateral meeting between the presidents and the United States controls the composition of the participants, which means there will be no unnecessary people. And if there is a second meeting, it may take place in Russia, even in Chukotka.
— Are you saying that the return meeting may take place somewhere in the Far East?
— Maybe in the Far East, maybe somewhere else. But most likely, on the territory of Russia.
— Can Alaska's choice speak to the importance of economic cooperation between Russia and the United States in the Arctic?
— Most likely, yes. This is an important topic for both countries, and therefore I do not exclude that, in addition to the Ukrainian topic, the parties will discuss cooperation in this area.
— The bilateral agenda of Russia and the United States, in particular, includes the topic of strategic arms control, the return of Russian diplomatic property, and the resumption of direct flights. What would a discussion of such issues look like?
— I think there is an opportunity to develop a roadmap for the normalization of relations between Russia and the United States. The first step could be to create a working group to develop a roadmap. And then, for example, the creation of a working group on strategic stability, a group on other issues, and so on.
In general, the topics will cover a wide range of issues. Of course, the presidents will discuss the Ukrainian conflict and European security. These are key issues related to the normalization of our bilateral relations.
"A full settlement of the Ukrainian conflict is impossible now"
— After Donald Trump's return to the White House, direct talks between Russia and Ukraine resumed in Istanbul. One of the interim results was the exchange of memoranda that reflect the views of Moscow and Kiev on the settlement of the conflict. Can Putin and Trump discuss the contents of these memoranda?
— Yes, absolutely. Now there are two memoranda, they differ significantly from each other. But I think there is a possibility to find a compromise. And most likely, the presidents will discuss such issues. Of course, it is impossible to reach agreements without Ukraine's participation, but it is quite possible to find common positions and language between our countries at this stage.
— The Russian memorandum presupposes the international recognition of Crimea, the DPR and the LPR, the Zaporizhia and Kharkiv regions for the Russian Federation. Is the United States now ready to recognize the territorial realities that have developed during its military operations?
— De facto, yes, but de jure by no means. This will be Trump's position at a personal meeting, I am sure of it.
De facto it is (recognition. — Izvestia) has actually already taken place. Everyone understands this. Even in Kiev, they say that it is impossible to force Russia to liberate these territories. At least by military means. Therefore, a diplomatic path is needed, but it may take years. This is not a question of the immediate future.
— But what is the United States trying to achieve? Freezing the conflict or eliminating its root causes, which Russia regularly talks about?
— I think that the United States is seeking a real settlement. But that's still a long way off. The most they can agree on is a roadmap, that is, some principles and parameters for a final settlement, realizing that there is still a very tough and long road ahead for negotiations between Moscow and Washington and, of course, Moscow and Kiev.
A full settlement of the Ukrainian conflict is impossible now — the ground is simply not prepared. We need very serious conversations. There is no consensus on territorial issues, we need to discuss NATO expansion, security guarantees for Ukraine, and so on. There are a lot of difficult issues to discuss, but if desired, certain principles can be determined. In my opinion, it would be a big step at this stage.
— What could the roadmap for the Ukrainian settlement look like?
— We can discuss different points. Everyone understands what important issues are being raised. These are issues of European security, now territories, respect for the rights of national minorities, primarily the Russian-speaking population, and sanctions. There are, of course, many humanitarian issues here. We need to look for general principles that could guide us in solving specific issues. That would be a big step.
But, of course, our presidents are unlikely to be able to immediately agree on all these principles at the meeting. What is possible is a push from the presidents to have serious conversations on these issues.
— Could the roadmap for the normalization of relations between the Russian Federation and the United States include provisions on the Ukrainian settlement? Or are we talking about two road maps?
— These could be two road maps. But the most important thing is to agree on a way forward.: How will we work together and seek a mutual compromise to resolve these complex issues? This would be very important, and after a face-to-face meeting, their resolution would be given a push.
If the presidents had said that they wanted to see the final versions of the road maps in six months or a year, it would have given a great impetus to more serious work for the bureaucrats.
"I believe that the OSCE is actually dead"
— You say that the meeting between Putin and Trump is just the beginning of the process of resolving the Ukrainian crisis. What are the chances that the conflict could be fully resolved before the end of this year?
— Completely, I think it is unlikely that this is possible, since this is a rather complicated issue. Take, for example, the territorial issue. How to make it a reality? What should Russia and Ukraine do? There are many administrative nuances. What will be the security guarantees for Ukraine? Who will provide it?
— The media has repeatedly written that Russia and Ukraine could agree on a cease-fire in the airspace. If such an agreement had been one of the outcomes of the meeting, who would have been able to monitor its compliance?
— Russia, USA and Ukraine. It's very simple. Nothing flies in the skies over Ukraine and Russia without the consent of the Russian Federation and the United States.
— Could the OSCE or the UN monitor any truce?
— These structures are not needed. Everything can be solved at the level of Russia, the USA and Ukraine. I believe that the OSCE is actually dead. And the UN can be useful when a relevant Security Council resolution is required. But that will be later.
— But if a ceasefire is reached, will the United States stop supplying weapons to Ukraine?
"I don't think so. As far as I understand, the United States stands for Ukraine's remaining capable armed forces. But this is a matter of the outcome of the negotiations between our presidents.
— Will the United States be able to at least partially lift sanctions against Russia?
— In principle, yes. But the details will depend on the outcome of the conversation, as well as on the specific settlement plan. Lifting all sanctions at once is impossible, because Trump himself cannot do it. The system is designed so that Congress must give its approval. Therefore, it will be a difficult process. However, lifting sanctions in response to specific actions by Russia is possible. This may include, for example, personal restrictions.
"Ukraine and European partners will have the opportunity to participate, but not immediately"
— The American opposition has repeatedly reproached Donald Trump for allegedly threatening Russia with new sanctions, but in six months in power he has done nothing to increase pressure. Will the pressure on Trump from the Democratic Party increase because of the meeting with Putin?
— There is always pressure. Most likely, it may increase. But you have to understand that Congress is on vacation, and few people are in Washington, so now is the best time to meet. But everything will depend on what kind of agreements there will be.
— On August 11, the foreign ministers of the EU countries discussed the Ukrainian settlement. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz earlier demanded that the Russian Federation and the United States not resolve the issue of Ukrainian territories over the heads of Europe and Ukraine. What are the Europeans trying to achieve?
— They are nervous now because they do not understand what the possible results of the meeting between Putin and Trump will be. However, in the end, a settlement of the conflict is impossible without Ukraine and the Europeans.
Ukraine and its European partners will have the opportunity to participate, but not immediately. Moreover, the Russian Federation and the United States have a lot of issues for bilateral discussion: strategic stability, for example. In my opinion, it makes no sense to discuss such topics with the participation of Ukraine and the Europeans, especially at the initial stage.
— Vladimir Zelensky previously stated that he would not "donate his land." Does this mean that Ukraine will not make territorial concessions to Russia?
— We do not yet know exactly all the elements of the peace plan at the current stage, so I would not pay much attention to what Zelensky is saying now. There will definitely be leaks on territorial issues.
But as we know, the issue for Russia is much broader: it concerns the role of NATO in relation to Ukraine, European security, the size of the Ukrainian armed forces, and so on. In my opinion, it would be a mistake to assess Ukraine's position only on territorial issues. We need to understand what the full package will be, and then it will be more appropriate to discuss Kiev's reaction.
The meeting between Putin and Trump is the beginning of the Ukrainian settlement process. I don't think there will be a cease-fire the next day. This will only be possible after a while: weeks or even months will pass. But the main thing is that if the meeting of the presidents succeeds, it will give a powerful impetus to the necessary conversations and a real settlement of the conflict.
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