Price for demand: US inflation to jump 1.5 times due to new trade war
Inflation in the United States will rise 1.5 times by the end of the year due to Donald Trump's new large-scale duties, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. At the same time, U.S. imports from countries subject to trade tariffs will fall by 15%. The American president signed a decree on the imposition of duties against a number of countries from August 7. The base rate will be 10%, but for some partners it is significantly higher. For example, the tariff for Canada will be 35%, and for Syria — even 41%. What the new tariffs will mean for the global economy and for Russia is in the Izvestia article.
How will the US duties affect global trade
The price increase in the United States is now 2.7%. But due to the outbreak of the global trade war, the inflation rate in America will jump 1.5 times, experts expect. By the end of the year, it may reach 4.2–4.5%, says Pavel Sevostyanov, Associate professor of the Department of Political Analysis and Socio-Psychological Processes at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. A more moderate acceleration of inflation — up to 3.1–3.5% — was allowed by independent expert Andrey Barkhota.
The likely advantages for the United States are the replenishment of budget revenues and the creation of incentives for investment and the transfer of part of the production chains to the country, says Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic analysis department at Finam. However, according to her estimates, the American economy will slow down to 1.4–1.5% this year (after 2.8% in 2024), and inflation will exceed 3%.
Trump's new duties against dozens of countries will be effective from August 7, according to a White House document. The US has already postponed the introduction of these tariffs twice. However, on July 31, the American leader nevertheless signed a corresponding decree — a new stage of the trade war has actually begun.
The White House has a total of 70 countries on its list. The states from the list were divided into three groups according to the amount of duties.: 10% — for countries to which the American side exports more than it imports; 15% — for countries with a small trade deficit with America, and above 15% — for those with which the United States has not concluded agreements.
Compared to previous announcements, Donald Trump has adjusted tariffs for some countries. For example, for Canada, the rate was increased from 25% to 35%, but for a number of others it was reduced: for Israel (from 17% to 15%), South Korea (from 25% to 15%), Thailand and Cambodia (from 36% to 19%). Earlier, Washington also concluded separate deals to reduce tariffs for Japan (from 25 to 15%), Indonesia (from 32 to 19%) and EU countries (30 to 15%).
Increased tariffs are also provided for a number of countries. The highest rates are for Syria (41%). Only slightly lower (40%) for Myanmar and Laos. Trump set duties of 35% for Serbia and Iraq, 30% for South Africa, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Libya, Algeria, and 25% for Tunisia, Moldova, Brunei, India, and Kazakhstan. Slightly lower — 20% — for Bangladesh, Taiwan, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, 19% — for Pakistan, Philippines, Malaysia, and 18% — for Nicaragua.
Due to such large-scale measures, US imports from these countries may decrease by 10-15%, Andrei Barkhota expects. Similar figures were indicated by Pavel Sevostyanov from Plekhanov Russian University of Economics and Olga Gogaladze, an expert on financial markets.
Also, 50% US duties on copper imports came into force on August 1. More rounds of industry tariffs are expected soon — for pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, essential minerals, and other key industrial products.
— Import reduction is possible in the sectors of electronics, automotive components and metals. Globally, this will increase inflationary pressure, especially in developing countries, and may reduce global GDP growth by 0.3–0.5 percentage points, Pavel Sevostyanov suggested.
The impact of trade duties on energy resources of the Russian Federation
Earlier, Washington also announced its intention to impose duties of 500% for countries that do not support Ukraine and buy oil from Russia. These measures are included in the draft law, which also provides for new sanctions (primary and secondary) against our country. Later, Trump lowered this level to 100%. He said he would impose these tariffs if Russia did not conclude an agreement on Ukraine in 10 days — by August 8.
However, on July 31, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that China— the largest buyer of Russian energy resources, would not abandon them even under the threat of a 100% duty. If India, the second largest importer of Russian oil, takes a similar position, Moscow will hardly feel it.
Political pressure from the United States is aimed at reducing purchases of Russian oil and gas by global partners, Olga Gogaladze said. In 2025, energy imports from Russia to Europe and a number of other countries are expected to decrease by 10-15%. But this decrease is more related to political decisions and sanctions, rather than US tariffs, she said.
Duties against importers of Russian oil may probably not exist at all, and if they do, China and India do not intend to fulfill Trump's conditions, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
— By the end of the year, temporary interruptions in fuel supplies are possible only if Chinese and Indian state-owned companies suspend oil imports from Russia until the geopolitical situation is clarified. However, this will not significantly affect the volume of supplies from the Russian Federation," the expert noted.
By the end of the year, the drop in demand for Russian energy resources may amount to 4%, Pavel Sevostyanov from Plekhanov Russian University of Economics admitted. According to him, this will be due to the desire of the countries of Southeast Asia to avoid secondary sanctions. On the other hand, the indirect impact of tariffs through lower oil prices has already been taken into account in the new forecast of the Central Bank. There, the average cost of Urals exports for 2025-2026 has been reduced from $60 to $55 per barrel, Olga Belenkaya said.
Meanwhile, the acceleration of global inflation will create additional pressure on consumer prices in Russia, Olga Gogaladze stressed. In this regard, inflation in the country may rise by 0.3–0.6 percentage points in 2025 above baseline expectations due to higher prices of imported goods and higher costs for manufacturers, she concluded. According to the July forecast of the Central Bank, price growth this year may reach 6-7%, and next year return to the target of 4%.
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