A stable position: why the Russian national debt is growing
Russia's national debt rose to 32.9 trillion rubles in the first ten months of 2025. The main part of the increase was accounted for by domestic borrowings. Experts say that the Russian debt structure is highly stable and the debt level is safe for the economy. For more information, see the Izvestia article.
A balanced strategy
According to the Ministry of Finance, Russia's national debt increased by 2.8% in the first ten months of 2025, to 32.9 trillion rubles.
The growth rate of government debt is outpacing the dynamics of GDP, however, as analysts emphasize, this reflects the active use of borrowing to finance budget deficits in conditions of high costs and limited access to external capital markets.
"This is a deliberate strategy of the Ministry of Finance: instead of wasting reserves and sharply tightening fiscal policy (although this is also partially observed), the state redistributes the burden over time, relying on the domestic market," says Evgeny Shatov, partner at Capital Lab.
According to him, this approach is justified, especially if nominal GDP growth and inflation are maintained, which "dilute" the debt burden in real terms.
Stable structure
At the same time, the debt level remains moderate and stable. The key benchmark is not the absolute amount of debt, but its ratio to GDP and the structure of borrowing.
Thus, the main part of the increase was accounted for by domestic borrowings: the domestic debt at the beginning of November amounted to 28.3 trillion rubles, while the external debt was about 4.6 trillion rubles, or about 14% of the total.
— Almost all of the increase is accounted for by domestic debt denominated in rubles. This fundamentally reduces currency risks and makes debt servicing manageable by monetary policy instruments. The external debt of the state remains minimal and, in fact, does not play a systemic role," explains Evgeny Shatov.
This configuration greatly reduces currency risks and makes the debt position more stable, especially when compared with other emerging markets. From the point of view of macroeconomics, it also looks relatively calm, adds Yan Pinchuk, deputy head of the WhiteBird Stock trading department.
Safe level
In terms of its ratio to GDP, Russian government debt remains one of the most conservative among the world's major economies, significantly lower than in developed countries.
— In the USA, Italy, France, and the UK, public debt has long exceeded 100% of GDP and continues to grow. Due to the lack of economic growth in many EU countries, the national debt reaches 90%. These countries practically live in debt to two or three subsequent generations. Such a scenario is categorically unacceptable for Russia," says economist Andrei Loboda.
Russia remains in the range of about 15-20% of GDP.
— This means that the state retains a significant debt reserve in case of economic turbulence. The burden on the budget related to debt servicing remains moderate and does not create pressure on the fiscal system. The key risks in the current environment are not so much debt as macroeconomic and political in nature: a possible reduction in budget revenues, high borrowing costs and restrictions on foreign capital markets," explains Alexander Zaitsev, CEO of Atomic Capital.
This is more likely the level of countries with strict fiscal discipline than an economy living in debt. This is an important signal for the stock market.: The government has room for maneuver, and the risks of a sudden debt crisis or an emergency tightening of fiscal policy look minimal, adds Ruslan Spinka, Director of Sales and Customer Service at Fontvielle.
Debt service
Experts also point out that Russia still has one of the lowest debt service costs in the world relative to budget revenues. However, there is a certain risk that, in the context of tight monetary policy, servicing new debt, of course, becomes more expensive.
The risk also lies in the concentration of borrowings within the country.: The active issuance of OFZs increases the competition between the state and the private sector for ruble liquidity and, in theory, can displace corporate investments," notes Shatov.
However, as the analyst explains, this effect is limited so far: the banking system has excessive liquidity, and the demand for OFZs from institutional investors remains high.
Reliable lenders
The main source of financing in the current conditions is mainly the domestic government bond market. Federal bank bonds are bought by Russian banks, non-governmental pension funds, insurance companies, management companies, as well as private investors. The Central Bank also plays an important role, which indirectly supports the market through REPO operations and liquidity management.
"Foreign capital markets are virtually closed to Russia, but from the point of view of debt sustainability, this is more of a plus than a minus: the country is free from currency and sanctions risks associated with servicing external obligations," Shatov draws attention.
On the external contour, borrowings are limited in nature and are shifting towards friendly jurisdictions and alternative currency (including the issuance of bonds denominated in yuan), says Alexander Zaitsev.
Thus, analysts say, Russia's debt position looks quite stable. Russia is capable of increasing its debt beyond current levels, if necessary. In the meantime, the Ministry of Finance is implementing a cautious strategy, while debt remains "conservative" and at a comfortable level.
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