Monetary horizon: government expects budget revenue growth next year
The basic version of the budget forecast assumes that starting in 2026, federal revenues will show steady positive dynamics in comparable prices, increasing by an average of about 2.1% annually. At the same time, a significant expansion of the expenditure side is expected: by 2042, the volume of federal spending in real terms should exceed the figures for 2019 by more than two times. Izvestia investigated which sectors of the economy will become the main drivers of budget revenue growth, as well as how the expected growth in budget revenues correlates with the forecast of inflation and real economic growth.
Vector of development
The projected real increase in budget revenues already reflects the impact of inflation, Anton Tabakh, chief economist at the Expert RA rating agency, told Izvestia. The expected revenue rates are slightly behind the projected economic growth over this horizon, so the share of budget expenditures in GDP is expected to remain relatively stable. The main risks to the implementation of the plans may be a possible slowdown in economic growth and an increase in the social obligations of the state.
The approach of the Ministry of Finance is cautiously positive and generally feasible, Sergei Grishunin, managing director of the NRA rating service, told Izvestia. According to the government's expectations, starting from 2026, real budget revenues should add an average of 2.1% annually. The key idea is to shift the sources of growth towards non—oil and gas revenues: the main role should be played by the sectors of the real economy - processing, construction, and services.
According to the plan, they will provide an increase in income tax, VAT and income from citizens' incomes, the expert recalled. At the same time, the stated growth rate has already been calculated without taking into account inflation, while the GDP forecast for 2026 is close to 1.3%, which means faster growth in treasury revenues compared to the economy as a whole and implies increased efficiency of tax administration, including through digital solutions.
At the same time, according to him, there are a number of factors that can complicate the implementation of the scenario. The external situation, primarily fluctuations in commodity markets, retains a significant impact. An additional limitation remains sanctions, which may deter investment and the introduction of new technologies.
Within the country, the risks are related to demographic trends and the high cost of borrowing for businesses, he stressed. At the same time, defense and social spending are increasing, which increases the burden on the budget and may require adjustments to forecasts in the event of an adverse development.
— To fulfill the set parameters, the Ministry of Finance relies on specific segments of the economy, — he noted. — First of all, it is the manufacturing industry and the construction complex that form the basis for income tax. A significant contribution is expected from domestic trade and the service sector — transport, communications, IT, which provide the bulk of VAT revenues.
Separately, according to him, the sphere of digital technologies and innovations stands out, gradually increasing its share in GDP and the tax base.
Key indicators
According to the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, in January–September 2024, the share of oil and gas revenues in federal budget revenues increased to 31.7% against 28.3% a year earlier, Peter Shcherbachenko, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, reminded Izvestia. At the same time, the budget forecast is based on a strategy of shifting the focus towards non-oil and gas sources, including by increasing the tax burden.
"In January—November 2025, federal budget revenues were tentatively estimated at 32.9 trillion rubles, which is 0.7% higher than in the same period in 2024, while non–oil and gas revenues increased by 11% year—on-year," the expert said.
Starting in 2026, the VAT rate will increase from 20% to 22%, which, according to Peter Shcherbachenko, will provide the budget with about 1 trillion rubles of additional revenue. For example, the increase in VAT from 18% to 20% in 2019 brought in more than 500 billion rubles in the first year.
— An additional contribution is expected from the recycling fee: in 2026, revenues from it, according to the calculations of the Ministry of Finance, will increase by 46.7% and reach 1.65 trillion rubles. This confirms the continued upward trend in the role of non—oil and gas revenues," he noted.
However, the Bank of Russia maintains tight monetary conditions, keeping the key rate at 16.5%, while the expected decrease in December is estimated at 0.5-1 percentage points, the expert emphasized.
The largest contribution to the economy is expected to be provided by industries with high added value — IT, mechanical engineering, chemistry, electronics, robotics, pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and the manufacture of medical equipment, Vladimir Eremkin, senior researcher at the RANEPA IPEI Structural Research Laboratory, told Izvestia. Construction, transport, logistics and trade will also continue to play a significant role, forming a stable tax base.
— The projected growth of budget revenues in real terms implies the achievement of stable inflation at about 4%. With higher rates of price growth, nominal incomes can increase faster if inflation does not restrain economic activity," he said.
At the same time, revenue expectations look somewhat optimistic against the background of the long–term forecast for GDP growth of 1.5-1.7%. At the same time, calculations show a decrease in the ratio of budget revenues to GDP from 17.1% in 2025 to 14.1% by 2042, which indicates either a more favorable scenario for economic development, or the continuation of tax changes and the search for additional sources of income.
— In the long term, a wide range of risks remains. The budget is still sensitive to fluctuations in oil and gas prices, which has already manifested itself in a reduction in the share of raw materials revenues to about a quarter of all revenues and an increase in the deficit. The high debt burden of a business and a long period of expensive loans, which deter investment, can have a limiting effect," the expert said.
Additional risks are associated with tax benefits, increased fiscal burden and increased administration, which can weaken economic activity and even encourage some businesses to go into the shadows, he added. In general, the stated parameters look achievable under the condition of macroeconomic stability and sustainable development of priority non-resource sectors, however, the structural constraints of the economy remain significant.
The main drivers of the economy will be turnover taxes and fees, including VAT at the level of 22% (up to 20.363 trillion rubles) and taxes on profits and income (4.978 trillion rubles), Egor Diashov, chairman of the Financial Markets Commission of the Moscow State Economic Organization of RUSSIA, confirmed to Izvestia. At the same time, long-term risks are associated with a possible increase in sanctions pressure and a reduction in demand for Russian energy resources, even from friendly countries, Inna Litvinenko, associate professor of Economics and Management at the Russian State University of Social Technologies, told Izvestia.
Izvestia sent requests to the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Finance, but no responses had been received at the time of publication.
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