- Статьи
- Economy
- Tax assault: the Ministry of Finance called the fight against the shadow sector a priority
Tax assault: the Ministry of Finance called the fight against the shadow sector a priority
The Russian Ministry of Finance highlights the task of reducing informal economic activity as one of the key tasks for 2026. This was announced by the head of the department Anton Siluanov during a speech at the expanded board of the Federal Tax Service. Such instructions were given by the government and the president. Izvestia investigated what key factors are shaping the shadow sector today, as well as what tools and methods the government plans to use to reduce its share.
Digital control
In 35 years, the tax service has become a modern digital system: risk-based control has replaced the previous paper procedures, the press service of the Ministry of Finance told Izvestia. The Ministry noted the contribution of the VAT-2 Tax Code to the almost complete elimination of the tax gap, as well as the role of the Federal Tax Service as a source of data for operational government decisions.
The Ministry of Finance also recalled the correct implementation of tax changes in 2024-2025, the successful expansion of the circle of VAT payers, and outlined key tasks for 2026: strengthening control over cash payments and the use of CCTS, launching a SPOT system together with customs to monitor supplies from CIS countries, as well as legalizing and regulating digital currency mining with the introduction of liability for violations..
In the shadow sector of the Russian economy, a significant role is played by entrepreneurs' misunderstanding of the consequences of non-payment of taxes and the desire for dubious optimization schemes, despite fairly comfortable tax regimes, Dmitry Panov, coordinator of Delovaya Rossiya for the Northwestern Federal District, told Izvestia. Digitalization allows the state to see most operations, so even those who avoid attention for now will not be able to escape control in the future. Improving tax literacy and clarifying the benefits of modern regimes are becoming important steps towards reducing violations.
Soft power tools also help reduce informal economic activity: simplified reporting, expanded preferences for important industries, and the introduction of digital public services. Modern electronic services reduce administrative costs and improve the quality of tax administration, which ultimately helps to reduce the gray area of business.
"The key tool of the "hard power" is certainly the increased control by the tax authorities and other regulatory agencies," he said. — At the same time, it should be noted that today's monitoring activities are increasingly preventive in nature, allowing at the initial stages to identify business vulnerabilities and take the necessary measures.
According to him, the construction industry with many subcontractors, trade, especially when working with sanctioned products, as well as agriculture, where digital tools and technology are poorly developed, are among the most vulnerable areas to receding into the shadows. The private sector of services, including household repairs, tutoring, and rental housing, often finds itself in the "gray zone".
The shadow sector in Russia is caused by a combination of the tax burden, the complexity of fulfilling obligations and various restrictions on activities, Anton Tabakh, chief economist at the Expert RA rating agency, told Izvestia. Previously, its reduction was facilitated by the growth of non—cash payments and the spread of simplified regimes such as the Unified tax system and self—employment, but current changes - lowering the threshold for VAT and discussing adjustments to conditions for the self-employed - again, according to the expert, increase the risk of expanding the informal zone.
In his opinion, in order to contain the "shadow", the state relies on digitalization, early detection of violators and maintaining ease of interaction with the tax service for small businesses. The main focus is planned to shift to large defaulters, since excessive control of small operations creates high costs and negatively affects citizens. The most vulnerable industries remain those with intensive use of cash and massive small customers: the service sector, small retail and catering.
Working methods
The shadow sector is a complex socio-economic problem affecting competition, the quality of goods and services, the safety of citizens and criminal financial flows, Vladimir Saskov, an expert at the HSE Institute of Tax Management and Real Estate Economics and director of the Association of Tax Consultants, told Izvestia.
The growth of the shadow segment is fueled by low tax discipline, the complexity of regulations, excessive fiscal pressure, as well as low labor productivity, which reinforces the practice of minimizing "payroll" taxes, he stressed. The government is actively strengthening measures to whitewash the economy: it lowers the thresholds of special regimes, expands control over financial flows and cash turnover, develops digital tools like the VAT-2 and AIS Tax-3, paying attention to risky areas — from retail and KKT to illegal employment and business fragmentation schemes.
In 2026, the government intends to develop a preventive approach for companies: banks, under the supervision of the Central Bank, will stop suspicious financial transactions, and the Federal Tax Service will seek tax revenue already at the stage of pre—verification analysis, an expert of the Council of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation on financial, industrial and investment policy, a tax consultant, noted in an interview with Izvestia. Alexey Krylov. In fact, the strategy boils down to preventing tax evasion in the bud or timely encouraging businesses to behave correctly. As the digital systems of the Federal Tax Service, the Central Bank and the banking sector strengthen, the effectiveness of this approach will grow.
— Plus, in 2026, the principle of extraterritoriality will be actively used in on-site tax audits (GNP) and in-house tax audits (KNP), which will optimize the burden on the Federal Tax Service and increase their efficiency. As for individuals, we expect some relief after the campaign to limit bank transfers and cash withdrawals against the background of the fight against fraudsters. The campaign went through obvious kinks," the expert points out.
In 2026, stricter controls are probably not expected for ordinary citizens, Alexey Krylov noted. A separate area will be a more in—depth analysis of the income-expense ratio among the able-bodied unemployed. This pilot mechanism will be gradually expanded. And the talk about a certain neural network of the Federal Tax Service, allegedly monitoring social networks in search of signs of a luxurious lifestyle and comparing them with official incomes, now looks significantly exaggerated.
Informal employment includes activities that do not require registration, while shadow employment covers hidden economic activity in sectors with a high proportion of manual labor and opaque calculations: agriculture, retail trade, consumer services, tourism and manufacturing, Dmitry, director of the Research Center for Spatial Analysis and Regional Diagnostics of the IPEI Presidential Academy, reminded Izvestia. Zemlyansky.
The prevalence of such practices varies greatly by region: it is especially high in the North Caucasus and in the border areas. The incentive to go into the shadows most often occurs where labor costs are significant, which is often accompanied by other violations, from working without licenses to illegal network connections.
The government relies primarily on modern digital methods of struggle: an increase in the share of non-cash payments, control of bank card transactions and the transition to self-employment, which has become one of the key factors in income legalization, the expert confirmed. The development of the platform economy has a significant effect — marketplaces and services check suppliers themselves, which encourages them to come out of the shadows. Support measures such as the cashback program have become an additional motivator in certain areas, such as tourism.
Izvestia sent a request to the Federal Tax Service, but no response had been received at the time of publication.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
