Oil, shipping, and shallowing. What you need to know about the Caspian Sea

The potential of the Caspian Sea as an economic center has not yet been fully realized. Its shelf contains huge oil and gas reserves, but some fields are still under development and not all reserves have been estimated. The Caspian Sea may also become a concentration of waterways connecting all coastal countries. At the same time, in recent years, the reservoir has faced a dangerous process of shallowing. What you need to know about the prospects of the Caspian Sea is in the Izvestia article.

Minerals

The Caspian Sea has long been known for its oil and gas reserves. Their development near Baku began at the end of the 19th century. For a long time, only Azerbaijani deposits were of industrial importance, but since the end of the 20th century, the development of the northern and central parts of the Caspian Sea began, which after the collapse of the USSR became part of Russia and Kazakhstan. The exploration of Azerbaijani fields has already been completed, and their reserves have allowed the country to increase oil production from 10 million to 30 million tons barrels. In addition, a large gas field discovered in 1999 allowed Azerbaijan to supply gas to Europe.

• Geological exploration has shown that the oil reserves of the Caspian Sea shelf may occupy the third place in the world in terms of volume, after the Persian Gulf and Western Siberia. At the same time, it is easier and cheaper to develop the Caspian shelf than offshore fields.

• Several oil and gas fields have been discovered on the eastern side of the southern Caspian Sea on the shelf of Turkmenistan, which hopes one day to start supplying gas to Europe through Azerbaijan. In the Iranian part of the Caspian Sea, hydrocarbon reserves are located deep enough and the development of oil and gas fields is ineffective in the current economic conditions. However, exploration continues, and in 2021, the Islamic Republic discovered a large gas field in its part of the Caspian Sea.

• Kazakhstan started oil production in Tengiz on the shore of the Caspian Sea back in 1979, and later developed the Kashagan field on the adjacent shelf, in which recoverable reserves amount to about 9-13 billion barrels (1-2 billion tons). Kashagan is the central core of the North Caspian Project, which also includes the offshore fields of Kalamkas Sea, Kairan, Aktoty and Southwest Kashagan.

• In 2024, oil production at Tengiz amounted to 27.8 million tons of oil, and in the future it is planned to increase production to 35 million tons. Russia's Lukoil owns a 5 percent stake in this project. Production at Kashagan is maintained at the level of 18 million tons per year, with the possibility of increasing to 30 million tons after the launch of all planned production facilities. The Kurmangazy field, adjacent to Kashagan, is also being developed with recoverable reserves of up to 1.8 billion tons of oil, but production is not underway there yet.

• In the Russian sector of the Caspian Sea, several deposits are located from Dagestan, the largest is the Filanovsky deposit. It has reserves of 129 million tons of oil, and it produces about 6 million tons per year. Lukoil is the operator of this project. He also owns the Korchagin and Gaifer fields, which are capable of producing another 1 million tons of oil per year.

• Lukoil is also developing the Kuvykin field, where gas production in the amount of 4 billion cubic meters is possible. Gazprom is also engaged in gas production in the Caspian basin, developing the Astrakhan gas condensate field in the Caspian lowland. Production there is maintained at the level of 18 billion cubic meters, and the period of profitable production is set until 2222.

• A large gas field has been discovered in the lower reaches of the Volga River, in the southwestern part of the Caspian basin in the Russian Federation, it is considered the largest in Europe in terms of gas and condensate reserves.

• The Caspian Sea plays an extremely important role for the economies of at least four of the five bordering countries. Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan are actively developing its shelf, using the extracted oil and gas both for the domestic market and for export. This applies to Iran to a lesser extent, as it is more economically profitable for it to develop the reserves of the Persian Gulf. The Caspian countries aim to develop cooperation for more efficient development and logistics of hydrocarbons.

Shipping lane

• The Caspian Sea has a certain perspective as a waterway connecting all five countries located on its shores. Already, the reservoir is riddled with several routes through which goods are delivered. In 2025, the Makhachkala Commercial Seaport plans to handle 3.3 million tons of cargo from Aktau, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenbashi, Turkmenistan.

• One of the variants of the North–South transport corridor, connecting the European part of Russia with India via Iran, also passes through the Caspian Sea. Although both the eastern and western shores of the Caspian Sea have their own railway lines connecting Russia with Iran, it is through the waterway that goods can be transported directly, bypassing Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

• On the Russian side, there are already large ports in Makhachkala and Astrakhan, and in recent years the port of Olya has been actively operated, to which a railway line has been built. The ports of Bandar Anzali, Amirabad and Noushehr are available for cargo transshipment in Iran. Sea transportation is also planned to be carried out between Iran and Aktau, Kazakhstan, for which a joint shipping consortium will be established.

Shallowing

• At the same time, the economic development of the Caspian Sea is limited by the environmental component. Firstly, this reservoir has a rich biodiversity and is a prey site for up to 90% of the world's sturgeon. Because of this, mining in the region is conducted with particularly strict emission and pollution requirements. Secondly, the threat of shallowing looms over the Caspian Sea, which has huge consequences for the lake.

Bottom line: what will the shallowing of the Caspian Sea lead to?

Coastal countries are talking about the disaster and sounding the alarm

• The shallowing process has accelerated since the early 2000s. It has already led to noticeable changes in the coastline, a reduction in the area of the water surface and the exposure of the bottom. Taking into account the flatness of the Caspian shelf, shallowing leads to the emergence of entire new land areas. This has a negative impact on the state of fish resources and the coastal environment, including the port infrastructure.

• The main reason for shallowing is the reduction of water flow from the Volga and the Urals. However, climate change is also important. Since 2006, precipitation has been decreasing and evaporation has been intensified. Atlantic cyclones stopped reaching the Volga basin and the Caspian Sea itself, which provided the necessary balance between the arrival of water and its evaporation, which is why the water level in the lake is decreasing.

• Without solving the problem of shallowing, further development of the Caspian Sea will face restrictions. In this regard, on December 12, President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev warned that the shallowing could become irreversible. He called for international coordination to jointly restore the water level of the Caspian Sea.

When writing the material, Izvestia communicated with:

• Candidate of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences, Senior Researcher at the Geological Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vitaly Bykadorov.