Bottom line: what will the shallowing of the Caspian Sea lead to?
Over the past month, two post-Soviet leaders have declared an impending environmental disaster due to the shallowing of the Caspian Sea. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev believes that the environmental factor is to blame, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev pointed to climate warming. According to experts, in some areas the world's largest lake may repeat the fate of the Aral Sea. Izvestia dealt with the causes and consequences of what was happening.
What happened to the Caspian Sea
The level of the Caspian Sea dropped to a record level in 2025. According to the data of the Caspian Scientific Research Institute of Fisheries (KaspNIRKh, Astrakhan), the water surface was at the lowest level for the entire observation period — below minus 29 m according to the Baltic elevation system. In general, shallowing has been taking place since the mid-1990s, with a drop of 0.8 m over the past five years.
Kazakhstan's Vice Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Bolat Bekniyaz, also sounded the alarm. According to him, the water level has now dropped to minus 29.21 m of the Baltic Sea system, which is an absolute minimum. "The water surface area has decreased mainly due to the shallow northeastern part," he stressed.
Residents of coastal regions also say that significant areas of the seabed have recently been exposed on the reservoir, new islands have appeared, and previously existing islands are connected to the mainland by new isthmuses. Numerous bloggers clearly show the changes that have taken place. For example, one of the Kazakhstani users posted a video showing that the sea receded by several meters in the Aktau area.
Another user posted a video comparing the situation in 2013 and 2025. In the first part, one of the bridges in Aktau is surrounded by water on all sides, now grass grows in the same place, and the sea is much further away. Finally, in another video, the hunters showed how they were driving an SUV along the former bottom of the Caspian Sea, with islands visible on the horizon that were previously impossible to see from land. "That's it, there is no sea," the author states.
On the opposite shore of the Caspian Sea, there is also talk of a significant change in terrain. The Azerbaijani island of Gum, located in the Baku Bay, has ceased to be an island — due to a decrease in water levels, an isthmus appeared that connected it to the mainland. President Ilham Aliyev also reported that the sea used to be visible from one of his offices, but now rocks have surfaced almost a meter in this place.
Why is the Caspian shallowing
There are several reasons for this. On the one hand, river levels are decreasing in the region. This includes the Volga, which accounts for 80% of the total river flow to the Caspian Sea. According to the researchers, in the last four years, the annual flow has been 210-232 cubic meters. km, which is noticeably lower than the long-term average of 250 cubic km. Similar problems are recorded on other waterways, including the Kura, Ural and Terek rivers.
The second important point concerns climate warming. Thus, Central Asia is considered one of the world's record—breaking regions in terms of average annual temperature growth. According to meteorologists, summers are getting hotter and drier here, and the desert area is gradually expanding. As a result, precipitation is decreasing, and evaporation from the surface of the Caspian Sea is increasing.
Finally, there are many problems related to economic activity. Firstly, active oil production is underway in the Caspian Sea, and during the extraction of minerals, the resulting voids are filled with seawater. Secondly, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Iran are developing seawater desalination technologies. So, only in Azerbaijan they plan to invest $400 million in the corresponding project.
I must say that the issue of the main causes of the shallowing of the Caspian Sea remains a matter of disagreement even at the presidential level. So, at the end of September, during a speech at the 80th session of the UN General Assembly, Kazakh leader Kassym-Jomart Tokayev emphasized climate change. According to him, Central Asia is heating up twice as fast as the global rate, in such conditions, the state of the Caspian Sea becomes not a regional, but a global problem.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev actually refuted his colleague, saying that the main reason for the shallowing is not warming, but the deterioration of the environmental situation, that is, apparently, human activity. He noted that three years ago he raised the issue of the state of the Caspian Sea, and since then the situation has only gotten worse.
What are the forecasts
Some scientists do not see the problem in what is happening. According to their version, the Caspian Sea is characterized by fluctuations in the water level, the sea "breathes" throughout its history. These researchers cite data according to which the reservoir was also shallow in the middle of the last century, but then — in 1978-1995 — the level increased. From this it is concluded that even now, after shallowing, a period of growth will begin.
Other researchers say that the state of the climate and human activity are seriously exacerbating the problem. So, Sergey Shipulin, deputy head of the Volga-Caspian branch of VNIRO (KaspNIRH), says that by 2030 the sea level may decrease by another meter. "Over the past five years, very little water has been flowing into the Caspian Sea. The land area has extended into the sea [in the northeastern part of the Caspian Sea] by almost 50 km," he notes.
Forecasts for the longer term are even less optimistic. Thus, the calculations of European scientists were published by the scientific journal Communications Earth & Environment. According to these data, by the end of the century, the level of the Caspian Sea may fall by 9-18 m, as a result, the sea area will decrease by a third. The North Caspian and Turkmen shelves will be exposed on the surface, and the coast in the middle and southern parts of the Caspian Sea will be exposed.
Such a development would be a major environmental disaster. The flora and fauna of the Caspian Sea is deteriorating, deserts and semi-deserts are forming on the bare shores, and dust storms are becoming more frequent. Transportation will become more complicated and more expensive — permanent dredging operations will have to be carried out in ports, large ferries will fail, they will be replaced by small vessels with low draft, which will be able to carry less cargo.
In such circumstances, it is extremely important that the riparian countries establish active cooperation and solve problems together. I must say that there is a legal and diplomatic basis for this. In 2018, five states signed the Convention on the Status of the Caspian Sea, which defined the size of the territorial waters of each participant. In addition, summits of the Caspian littoral states are regularly held, and the next event will be held next year in Iran.
What the experts say
Mikhail Bolgov, Chief Researcher and head of the Laboratory of Surface Water Modeling at the Institute of Water Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences, emphasizes that the situation is difficult, and "there are quite a lot of reasons for concern."
— The state of the Caspian Sea is influenced by several factors. Firstly, the climate is changing, and as a result, evaporation from the sea surface is increasing. Secondly, there is the influence of a person who takes water from the Caspian basin and does not return it. We can confidently say that the water level will decrease in the coming years. The Russian Academy of Sciences, including our institute, is currently engaged in a comprehensive marine research program, and we will be able to provide a more detailed analysis based on its results," he notes.
Alexander Kobrinsky, Director of the Agency for Ethnonational Strategies, believes that shallowing will have serious economic and political consequences.
— We know that there are large logistics projects around the Caspian Sea. This is, for example, the Middle Corridor, which should connect China and Europe, bypassing Russia. This is already an extremely complex and confusing initiative, which requires a lot of transshipment of goods and passage of several state borders. In the case of the drying up of the Caspian Sea, sea transportation will also become more complicated. I must say that Russia is building its North–South project in this region, which, in the event of a sharp drop in water levels, will also require some additional solutions," he says.
Political scientist Rustam Burnashev believes that the five coastal countries need to step up negotiations on the fate of the Caspian Sea.
— There are all the conditions for this. After the signing of the most important convention in 2018, an understanding of the legal status of the reservoir appeared, a division of management zones was carried out, and a mechanism for resolving emerging issues appeared. Of course, the problem of shallowing has arisen relatively recently, there are not so many points of contact here. But I think that the parties can reach an agreement in this direction," he assures.
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