Below zero: November brought a decline in consumption in Russia
Real consumer spending began to decline in November. During the three weeks of the month, consumption decreased by 0.2%. This is reported in the next issue of Sberindex. Economists interviewed by Izvestia believe that it is too early to draw conclusions, although the decrease in expenses may be explained by both a decline in real incomes and tightening credit conditions. About why Russians have stopped spending and how this will affect the country's GDP is in the Izvestia article.
Less food, more dishes
According to the index, expenses continued to grow in nominal terms, at the level of 7% last week. But this is without taking into account inflation. The increase was due to non-food spending, which accelerated from 8.3% to 9.5% compared to the same period last year, amid a slowdown in annual growth in food products (from 4.3% to 3.6%), catering (5.9% and 3.8%) and services (from 9.4% to 8.2%).
We see the same thing when estimating expenses in November relative to last month — the process is observed only in food expenses. The growth leaders compared to October are beauty and health products (10.7%), hobbies and hobbies (10.7%), household appliances (8.9%), furniture and interior items (7.6%). However, compared to the same period last year, there is a decrease in consumption in these categories due to fewer purchases.
In general, if we look at the dynamics of household spending, since the beginning of 2024, there has been a clear trend towards a reduction in both nominal and real terms. For example, in January 2024, real spending grew by an average of 8% compared to the same month of the previous year. At the beginning of 2025, this figure dropped to 5%. In the summer, it stabilized at 2% and finally went into negative territory by November. In October, growth still continued at 2%, so we can say that a turning point has occurred.
It's too early to draw conclusions
Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam, believes that the weekly data is too short a period to draw a conclusion about a steady downward trend in consumer spending, especially since there was an increase in October. What can be said for sure is that consumer activity growth will slow down this year compared to 2024.
— According to Rosstat, retail turnover growth in real terms for the first nine months of 2025 was only 2.1% compared to 8.6% for the first nine months of 2024, growth in the food segment slowed to 2.3% compared to 6.7% for the first nine months of 2024, and in the non—food sector, the slowdown in growth is even more obvious - to 2.1% against 10.5% a year earlier. The slowdown in growth is also visible in paid services to the public, although it is happening more smoothly here: in the first nine months of 2025, growth was 2.4% compared to 4.5% in the same period last year. But catering continues to show very impressive dynamics this year, with an increase of 8.4% in the first nine months of 2025 compared to 11.8% in the first nine months of 2024. However, according to media reports, restaurants in Moscow are closing more actively this year than last year, including a shift in favor of a cheaper price segment," Belenkaya said.
As noted by Andrey Melashchenko, chief economist of Renaissance Capital, looking at the weekly data, it is difficult to talk about sustainability.
— In recent months, we have seen a slowdown in retail trade growth (growth of 1.8% in September and 2.1% in the first nine months of 2025). In October, taking into account the dynamics of last year, we are likely to see a short–term acceleration of this indicator, and in November-December, growth will continue to slow down. At the same time, such an indicator of consumer activity as paid services for the population is growing slightly faster — 2.9% in September and 2.4% in nine months, while growth remains high in the catering sector — 10.3% in September and 8.4% in January–September," the source told Izvestia.
According to Melashchenko, in addition to the high base of 2024, the slowdown in consumer activity is caused by a severe reduction in fiscal and monetary policy stimulus.
— The growth rate of wages is gradually slowing down, while "real" rates (adjusted for inflation and inflation expectations) remain high, which determines the preservation of savings sentiment. Potential buyers are postponing some of the major purchases," the expert emphasized.
Olga Belenkaya, in turn, noted that the slowdown in consumer activity this year can be attributed to increased competition for workers in the labor market, slower wage growth, more restrained consumer expectations (according to the Bank of Russia, the value of the consumer sentiment index in October was at its lowest since December 2024), lower mortgage availability (especially in the first half of the year, against the background of a record high key interest rate with reduced concessional lending) and a reduction in consumer unsecured lending.
— As a result, consumers switch to "economy mode". Increased savings activity is also a factor in the restrained growth of consumption this year, but in the third quarter of 2025, the growth rate of household funds in banks slowed significantly," she stated.
Evgeny Goryunov, head of the Monetary Policy Laboratory at the Gaidar Institute, also emphasizes that the data really indicate a gradual and steady decline in the growth rate of consumption expenditures.
— Expenses continue to grow in nominal volume, but more and more slowly. This is accompanied by a slowdown in inflation (it is currently at 4-5%, if we look at estimates of current inflation, adjusted for seasonality) and a slowdown in the growth of the money supply. The main factor is the slowdown in income growth following the slowdown in the economy, which is mainly caused by the high Central Bank rate," the analyst noted.
The end of the year is in the red
Household consumption is a key part of GDP (more than 50%). If this driver stops working, we can expect a recession in the economy as a whole. But there are some nuances here, experts say.
— In the fourth quarter, we expect a decline in GDP of about 0.5% compared to the same period last year. In terms of demand, this will be due, among other things, to a slowdown in final consumption expenditures on the part of households. At the same time, we do not expect a decrease in this indicator for the whole year," said Andrey Melashchenko.
Belenkaya, in turn, highlighted the increase in non-food spending, while other types of consumption show a slowdown.
— This can be attributed to purchases ahead of the expected price increase after the change in the methodology for calculating scrap for imported cars (from December 1) and the increase in VAT from 20% to 22% (from January 1). In the second half of 2025, the growth of car loans and mortgages accelerated. Such consumer demand may support GDP growth in the fourth quarter. Although, according to our expectations, this growth will be near zero or slightly negative due to the high base of the fourth quarter of 2024. However, the temporary recovery in consumption in non-food products may be replaced by a pause in early 2026, due to the expected increase in VAT and the continued slowdown in income growth. In the second half of 2026, as the Bank of Russia's PREP eases, consumption may begin to gradually intensify," the expert said.
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