It won't be greasy: business announced a decrease in sunflower oil production

The business is reducing the production of sunflower oil, Izvestia has learned. The reasons are a decrease in sunflower harvest and low profitability of processing. This may lead to changes in oil prices for consumers, processors say. Over the year, according to Rosstat, it has already risen in price by 15%. The Ministry of Agriculture claims that the production volumes will make it possible to fully supply the domestic market with these products, as well as realize the export potential. What to expect for the market and consumers is in the Izvestia article.

Why is oil production declining?

The production of sunflower oil in this agricultural year (from September 2025 to August 2026) will amount to 7.6 million tons. This assessment is contained in the quarterly consensus forecast of the Center for Price Indices (CIC), which was reviewed by Izvestia. This is 3% less than in the previous survey of analysts. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, a year earlier, production amounted to 8 million tons. Thus, its output may decrease by 5% this year.

The decrease in oil production is due to the poor harvest of sunflowers this season, said Andrey Kurnosov, CEO of the agro-enterprise Leon. The gross harvest of this crop on November 21 amounted to 16.5 million tons, 3.5% lower than in the same period a year earlier, according to data from the Rosselkhoznadzor's Center for Industry Expertise. Rosstat indicates that at the beginning of November, the sunflower harvest decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, to 14 million tons.

The production and processing of this crop is concentrated in the south of Russia, said Andrey Kurnosov. In the Steppe agricultural holding, the harvest this year has fallen by 15% compared to last season, said its CEO Andrey Neduzhko. Efko Group (Sloboda, Altero, and DeOlio brands) plans to harvest 17.5 million tons— which is 5% less, its representative said.

The main reason for the decline in the harvest was difficult weather conditions, noted Andrey Neduzhko. In the spring, farmers in the southern regions faced frosts, which affected the development of seedlings, and then a prolonged drought in the summer months, he said. In the Rostov region, the harvest decreased by 37%, to 1.01 t/ha, according to Rosstat data. In different regions of the region, the indicator ranges from 3.5 c/ha to 15 c/ha, with a norm of 20-30 c/ha, Andrey Kurnosov emphasized.

In addition, processors record a decrease in the oil content of sunflower seeds, said the marketing Director of the Blago Group of Companies (Almador, Gifts of Kuban brand of the same name). Kirill Melnikov. Production from raw materials this year is worse than expected, as the seed does not meet the requirements of processors, Andrey Kurnosov confirmed. The raw materials came with an oil content of 41-45% at a rate of 46%, he explained.

Against this background, the cost of production is growing — it has increased by 20% since 2024, said Andrey Kurnosov. With a general shortage of raw materials, followed by an increase in their cost, enterprises are losing profitability in oil production, he complained. Combined with the export duty and the low dollar exchange rate, this results in a "negative economy," Efko's representative added.

This situation has led to the temporary shutdown of some factories in the country, said Ilya Bereznyuk, Managing Partner of Agro and Food Communications. Thus, Rusagro (brands Benefitto, Generous Summer, and I Love Cooking), owned by businessman Vadim Moshkovich, produced 193 thousand tons of vegetable oil in July – September 2025, 23% less than in the same period a year earlier, according to its operating statements. The Group attributed the decrease to the shutdown of the Atkara Oil Extraction Plant (MEZ) due to reconstruction. A representative of Rusagro did not respond to a request from Izvestia.

According to the forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture, this year the harvest of all oilseeds (sunflower, soybeans, rapeseed) will amount to about 31 million tons, of which the share of sunflower is about 17 million tons, a representative of the department told Izvestia. According to him, the production volumes will make it possible to fully supply the domestic market with vegetable oils, as well as realize the export potential, the representative of the department assures. Self-sufficiency in vegetable oils in our country exceeds 250%, while the threshold value of the Food Security Doctrine is 90%, he added.

Representatives of the Fat and Oil Union of Russia and the GAP "Resource" (brands "Pure gold", Evolia, "Good price", "Stanichnoe sun") They declined to comment. NMZHK Group (Astoria), Aston (the oil brand of the same name, Zateya, Svetlitsa) and the Russian representative office of Cargill did not respond to Izvestia's request.

Breeding on the topic: in the Russian Federation, hop production is projected to increase by a quarter

The Ministry of Agriculture is talking about gradual import substitution, but farmers are ready to increase volumes today.

How reduction of production affects the cost

A decrease in oil production has a moderate effect on rising commodity prices, Ilya Bereznyuk believes. This is due to the price damper mechanism, which involves an increase in export duties with an increase in export prices for the processed product, Kirill Melnikov recalled. The validity period of this mechanism was extended until August 31, 2028, he added.

According to Rosstat, the average retail price of sunflower oil in January – October 2025 was 151 rubles per liter, which is 15% more than in the same period of 2024. Annual inflation, according to the Central Bank, was 7.71% in October.

In the third quarter, the weighted average retail price of this type of oil increased by 13% year-on-year, to 125 rubles per liter, according to data from the analytical company NTech. For the analysis, aggregated anonymized information was used on sales received by the company with more than 100 million monthly receipts.

Against the background of reduced production, export prices for sunflower oil are also rising. In early November, they reached their peak in the fall of 2022, said Ekaterina Zakharova, senior analyst at the Center for Price Indices (CIC). According to her, the export index of these products in early November 2025 is based on FOB ("with loading on a ship") Novorossiysk amounted to $1,245/ton, which is 3% higher than a month earlier. In annual terms, the price increased by 15%, or by $158, according to the Central Data Center.

In the future, certain adjustments to the cost of sunflower oil are possible, Kirill Melnikov admitted. Manufacturers are forced to factor into the selling price the growing cost of scarce raw materials, energy costs and transportation, packaging and labeling, he explained. At the same time, maintaining the level of export volume will ensure the harvest of other popular oilseeds, he noted. Efko's soybean harvest this year will amount to 9.2 million tons (+30% YoY), rapeseed — 5.7 million tons (an increase of 21%), its representative said.

The volume of the retail sunflower oil market in July – September in physical terms amounted to 304 thousand tons, which is 5% more than in the same period last year. At the same time, the market grew in money by 18.5% year-on-year, to 38 billion rubles, according to NTech data.