Dodik's associate has been elected President of Republika Srpska. What does this mean?

Presidential elections have been held in Republika Srpska. The victory was won by Sinisha Karan, who is an associate of Milorad Dodik, who was previously dismissed from office. It is expected that under his leadership, the formation of Bosnia and Herzegovina will continue to pursue a policy aimed at rapprochement with Russia and confrontation with NATO. What is the importance of the elections in Republika Srpska — in the material of Izvestia.

Why are early elections being held?

• Early presidential elections were held in Republika Srpska, one of the three federal entities of Bosnia and Herzegovina, on November 23. According to the plan, they were supposed to take place in 2026, but they were held ahead of schedule after the dismissal of Milorad Dodik, who held this position. Back in February, the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina found the 65-year-old politician guilty of violating the country's constitution by signing laws that do not recognize the decisions of the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Constitutional Court.

• Dodik was then sentenced to one year in prison and banned from holding public office in Republika Srpska for six years. The politician himself claimed that he was being persecuted for defending the rights of Bosnian Serbs to self-determination, close ties with Russia and resistance to Bosnia and Herzegovina's accession to NATO. He had previously been sanctioned by the United States for his "separatist policies."

• Later, Dodik's prison sentence was commuted to a fine of 36.5 thousand Bosnian marks (1.7 million rubles), but the ban on performing duties remained in force, and he was supported by the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina. She called early elections in Republika Srpska to determine who will lead the education during the year before the next scheduled elections.

What is known about the leading candidates

• Dodik initially announced that his Alliance of Independent Social Democrats, the largest party in Republika Srpska, would boycott the presidential election. However, he changed his position and allowed the party to nominate its candidate. He became 63-year-old Sinisha Karan. Previously, he served as the Ministers of Internal Affairs and Scientific and Technical Development and Higher Education in Republika Srpska, and for ten years was the General Secretary of the President. Before entering politics, Karan served in the police for a long time.

• Branko Blanusha, nominated by the Serbian Democratic Party, became Karan's main rival. He holds a PhD in Electrical Engineering and holds the title of Professor at the University of Banja Luka. Bush was supported by some opposition politicians, including Dodik's main rival in the previous elections, Elena Trivic.

Crisis motivation: Dodik's removal may trigger conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina

The head of the Serbian entity was stripped of his position under pressure from the West

• As a result, Karan won the first round. He won 50.3% of the votes, while Blanche got 48.37% of the votes. The gap between them was 8,369 votes. After Karan's victory, Dodik declared that the attempt to overthrow him had failed, and now there will be "two Dodiks" in Republika Srpska, with whom his opponents will have to deal.

Republika Srpska in international relations

• The victory of Dodik's ally in the elections means that the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina will remain unchanged for at least another year. Karan has already promised to strengthen the Republika Srpska's ties with Russia, to maintain them on a warm and friendly level, as his estranged predecessor did.

• Under Karan, one should not expect a change of position on the issue of joining NATO. Now Republika Srpska rejects the very possibility of joining the alliance, and without its position, the federal Government of Bosnia and Herzegovina will not be able to achieve this. Dodik previously claimed that this path has no prospects, as Bosnian Serbs remember the bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999.

• The opinion of the Serbian community in Bosnia and Herzegovina is also important in the political life of Serbia, where the issue of joining NATO also splits society in two. If forces come to power in Belgrade that try to integrate with the alliance, they will have to deal with the resistance of Bosnian Serbs, many of whom have Serbian citizenship.

• Although the Republika Srpska is not an independent State, it is able to play a role in international relations, as it has an equal share in shaping the foreign policy of Bosnia and Herzegovina. It plays the role of an anti-Western island in the Balkans, striving for an informal Eurosceptic union that also includes Hungary and Slovakia. Under Karan, this status, which is a deterrent to the spread of Brussels' policy in southeastern Europe, will remain.