Crisis motivation: Dodik's removal may trigger conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina
The decision of the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina to remove Milorad Dodik from the post of President of Republika Srpska could lead to a civil war in the long term, experts say. The politician himself hinted that he was capable of disobeying the decision of the Central Election Commission. The head of the RS can also challenge the decision, however, due to the bias of the courts, the outcome in his favor is unlikely. The Republika Srpska has consistently strengthened its sovereignty in recent years. It is difficult for her to count on external help: Serbia is busy with internal problems, and Russia is too far away. About what the removal of Milorad Dodik from the post of head of the Serbian entity will lead to — in the Izvestia article.
Why Milorad Dodik was removed from office
The Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina has unanimously decided to revoke the mandate of the President of Republika Srpska (entity BiH) Milorad Dodik and call early elections. The decision will enter into force after the expiration of the two-day appeal period. If the complaint is rejected, new elections for the head of Republika Srpska should be scheduled within 90 days.
However, Milorad Dodik stated that he does not intend to give up. He hinted that he might not comply with this decision. "What if I refuse?" — the politician asked himself.
The Bosnian authorities decided to revoke the mandate after the decision of the Court of Appeal, which upheld the February verdict of Milorad Dodik. Then the politician was sentenced to a year in prison and deprived of his right to hold public office for six years. The President of Republika Srpska was found guilty of disobeying the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt. Recall that the head of the Serbian entity ignored the orders of the representative.
The political crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina has worsened largely due to Schmidt's appointment. This post was created to resolve contradictions in accordance with the Dayton Agreement, and it is appointed by the steering committee after the approval of the candidate by the UN Security Council. In May 2021, the ambassadors of the committee of the countries of the Council for the Implementation of the Dayton Agreement appointed German politician Christian Schmidt as the new high representative in BiH without the approval procedure in the UN Security Council, therefore, the leadership of Republika Srpska, as well as Russia and China, do not recognize his legitimacy.
In April, Bosnian security forces from the Investigation and Protection Agency even tried to arrest Milorad Dodik in Eastern Sarajevo. The arrests were prevented by police and special forces of the Republika Srpska guarding the Bosnian Serb leader, who threatened to use weapons. Sarajevo's attempt to put Milorad Dodik on the international wanted list through Interpol, whose central office did not issue an arrest warrant for the politician, also ended in failure.
The President of Republika Srpska himself emphasized in an interview with Izvestia that the main purpose of the trial against him was to be removed from the elections. He already served as the head of the entity from 2010 to 2018, then was elected in 2022. By the way, then the electoral commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina refused to recognize his victory. In 2024, Dodik announced his intention to be re-elected to this post again in the next elections in 2026.
The politician has also repeatedly said that the prosecutor's office and the court, which conduct criminal prosecution, are unconstitutional and linked to various criminal structures and international groups. Back in December, the National Assembly (Parliament) of Republika Srpska issued a conclusion that the unconstitutional prosecutor's office and the Court of BiH are conducting a politically motivated trial against the President of the RS, who acted in accordance with his constitutional and legitimate powers and duties. The government of the Serbian entity is also on the side of the ousted president.
The main reason for Milorad Dodik's criminal prosecution is his active pro—Russian position, which is manifested in the fact that he not only maintains close ties with Moscow, but also prevents Bosnia and Herzegovina from joining NATO. Banja Luka also prevents the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions and the abolition of visa-free travel for Russian citizens. Pressure on Milorad Dodik increased dramatically in 2022: sanctions were imposed on him in the UK, and then in the United States.
Dodik and his supporters will continue to fight, challenging the decision of the Central Election Commission of BiH. This probably won't have an effect due to the biased nature of the authorities in Sarajevo, INF program manager Milan Lazovich told Izvestia.
— Dodik and the Republika Srpska authorities may probably resort to the help of their neighbors (Serbia and Hungary), as well as friendly major influential countries, primarily Russia and China. For example, to raise a question at the UN regarding the illegitimacy of High Representative Schmidt," the expert said.
Neighboring Serbia has already condemned the verdict, and President Aleksandar Vucic met with Milorad Dodik and held telephone talks with French President Emmanuel Macron. However, apparently, this call had no results. A lot depends on Serbia's position on this issue, but drastic steps on the part of Belgrade are unlikely — the country continues to have an internal political crisis, and it is surrounded by NATO states on almost all sides.
Russia is deeply disappointed by the unjustified and anti-democratic decision of the appeals chamber of the BiH court, which confirmed the conviction of Milorad Dodik, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said.
Is there a risk of conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina
Dodik's removal from the post of President of the RS will lead to an increase in tension in BiH (already high), serious political instability and possibly even to a civil war in the longer term, Lazovich believes.
— The Serbian people of Bosnia intend to fight for their positions and do not accept external pressure. The decision of the Central Election Commission of Bosnia to suspend Dodik is playing with fire, literally pouring gasoline over the campfire. The case against Dodik is clearly political in nature," emphasized the INF program manager.
It is worth noting that Milorad Dodik himself has repeatedly spoken about the possibility of a referendum on the formation of an independent Serbian state. Since 2023, the leadership of the Republika Srpska has been systematically working to protect its sovereignty. So, in June of that year, Dodik signed the law adopted by the Parliament of Republika Srpska on the inapplicability of the decisions of the Constitutional Court of BiH in the RS. In February 2025, the deputies of the entity approved laws prohibiting the activities of the federal prosecutor's office, investigative bodies and special services on the territory of the republic.
In March, the procedure for adopting a new constitution was launched. Her draft, according to a number of Balkan media, will include provisions on the right of the RS to secede and create its own army, which will turn the entity into a "state of the Serbian people."
Recall that Bosnia and Herzegovina has already experienced a bloody armed conflict in 1992-1995. It was stopped thanks to the Dayton Agreements, according to which Bosnia and Herzegovina was divided into two entities: the Republika Srpska and the Muslim-Croat Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The internationally administered Brcko district was also created.
The removal of the legitimately elected president of one of the entities and the conflict between the guarantor countries of the Dayton Agreement is a serious test for the fragile peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina. So far, the West is doing everything to ensure that the armed confrontation flares up with renewed vigor.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
