There is no export: the authorities plan to extend the ban on gasoline exports until February

The government intends to extend the ban on gasoline exports until February to support the market, Izvestia has learned. This issue was discussed at a meeting of the petroleum products market headquarters led by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. The previous ban is valid until December 31, 2025 — it was introduced in the summer and has been extended several times since then. According to experts, such a measure will ensure stability in the fuel market during the winter period. What other steps can support the industry can be found in the Izvestia article.

What measures have the government prepared for the fuel market?

The government plans to extend the ban on gasoline exports until February to support the domestic market. This was reported to Izvestia by a source familiar with the results of the meeting of the headquarters on the situation on the oil products market led by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, which took place on December 15.

In October, the authorities extended a complete ban on the export of gasoline and diesel fuel for non-producers (traders) until December 31, 2025. These restrictions were introduced in the summer and have been extended several times since then.

— The measure being considered by the government is generally understandable and effective over a short time horizon. The export ban quickly returns some of the volumes to the domestic market and reduces nervousness in the wholesale trade, especially during refinery repairs and winter logistics. Therefore, the extension until the end of February 2026 looks like insurance against a repeat of summer price spikes and local distortions," Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global, told Izvestia.

In 2025, stock exchange fuel prices repeatedly updated historical highs. So, on October 20, AI-92 gasoline quotes set a record for the 15th time since the beginning of the year, rising to 74.3 thousand rubles per 1 ton, according to data from the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange. Gasoline AI-95 reached peak values at the end of August — its cost exceeded 82.2 thousand rubles per 1 ton. Another record was recorded on October 22: the price of winter diesel fuel increased to 77.8 thousand rubles per 1 ton. By mid—December, the situation on the stock exchange had stabilized - as of December 15, AI-92 was trading at 53.5 thousand rubles per 1 ton, AI—95 - 63.4 thousand, and winter diesel — 69.5 thousand rubles.

— Since November, wholesale gasoline prices have been declining quite actively and, in general, are already close to normal. This was facilitated by the low demand season, the current export ban, increased imports and the gradual withdrawal of affected refineries from unscheduled repairs," said Sergey Kaufman, analyst at Finam.

At the same time, the balance in the domestic market, according to the expert, remains unstable, so the government's desire to hedge itself seems logical. The extension of the export ban will help consolidate the trend towards normalization of wholesale prices and reduce the risks of fuel shortages in the domestic market, he added.

What difficulties does the fuel market face?

As Izvestia wrote, in late summer and early September, gasoline shortages were observed in several regions of the country, which led to the forced suspension of some independent gas stations. Initially, problems were noted in the Far East, but later the situation with fuel availability worsened in Central Russia and in the south of the country. Market participants then cited a seasonal increase in fuel demand and an increase in tourism activity, as well as forced refinery repairs.

— The measure adopted by the government is primarily aimed at urgently saturating the domestic market and will really help to temporarily contain prices and reduce the risks of shortages. However, the ban does not guarantee a halt to the rise in wholesale prices, which are formed under the pressure of more powerful factors, such as reduced processing, as well as rising costs for logistics and repairs," said Dmitry Tortev, a member of the expert council of the State Duma Committee for the Protection of Competition.

In his opinion, the measure will help stabilize supplies to the most vulnerable regions from a logistical point of view, but it does not guarantee the complete absence of local disruptions.

— The market needs solutions that go beyond export restrictions. One of the possible options is to create an interventional fuel fund, that is, a state reserve of gasoline and diesel at key transport hubs. This would make it possible to smooth out peaks in demand and quickly reanimate problem regions," Dmitry Tortev believes.

By the end of winter and the beginning of spring, with an increase in economic activity, pressure on the market may resume, he believes. The moderate increase in retail prices is likely to continue within or slightly above the inflation rate, as they are under pressure from both objective cost factors and administrative regulation.

As Izvestia wrote, the authorities are trying to prevent the price of gasoline in retail from rising above the annual inflation rate, or to keep these figures close. The mechanism is implemented through the pressure of regulators, primarily the Federal Antimonopoly Service, on oil companies. Such a system forces retail chains to hedge the risks of losses from the inevitable discrepancies. Therefore, prices do not decrease even when there are all the prerequisites for this, the Independent Fuel Union (NTS) explained.

— We consider the extension of the ban on gasoline exports to be quite reasonable in the current conditions. Although the crisis situation of autumn 2025 has been overcome, certain risks and difficulties still remain. Now the market has entered the low—demand season, repairs at refineries, both planned and emergency, have been completed for the most part, and the refining process is currently operating normally, which leads to an increase in supply on the market and contributes to the normalization of profitability of retail fuel sales," said Pavel Bazhenov, President of the NTS.

Building a predictable schedule for refinery repairs and monitoring minimum fuel reserves in the regions could be useful measures for the fuel market, Vladimir Chernov believes. The final stabilization of the fuel market will depend not on the duration of export restrictions, but on the speed of implementation of deeper structural reforms, Dmitry Tortev concluded.