Income reserve: investors are actively buying up OFZs before reducing the key
Russian investors increased investments in government bonds in the third quarter, according to the Central Bank's data, which was studied by Izvestia. Their contributions to brokerage accounts have increased more than one and a half times in three months. The market is preparing for a further decrease in the key rate — if it drops to 12-13% by the end of 2026, OFZs with a fixed coupon may show a yield of about 30% per annum. What to invest in by the end of 2025 is in the Izvestia article.
Why are investors actively investing in the stock market
Contributions from individuals to brokerage accounts for the third quarter of 2025 increased one and a half times to 872 billion rubles, according to the Central Bank's "Review of Key Broker Indicators for the third quarter of 2025." Investors are now actively buying government and corporate bonds, spending a total of 482 billion on them over the past months.
The demand was for long-term federal loan bonds (OFZ) with a fixed coupon, which will not change with a reduction in the key rate, according to the Central Bank. This allowed investors to record high returns in rubles at the beginning of the monetary policy easing cycle.
Bonds are a debt instrument: an investor gives money to the government or a company, and they pay interest and repay the debt in full at the end of its term. The yield on bonds depends on the key rate: for fixed-coupon securities, the percentage does not change, while for variable-coupon bonds, payments decrease or increase depending on the Central Bank's policy. At the same time, the cost of bonds usually increases as the key one decreases.
During the third quarter, the Central Bank's key rate dropped from 20% to 17%. At the same time, at the last meeting on October 24, the regulator continued the reduction cycle, additionally lowering it by 0.5 percentage points. Experts expect further easing of the Bank of Russia's policy. For example, VTB CEO Andrey Kostin assumed that by the end of the year the key rate would reach 16%, and during 2026 it would decrease to 12-13%.
The share of bonds in investors' portfolios increased to 38% (after 35% in the second quarter). Long-term OFZs, quasi-currency and ruble corporate bonds were in demand, the Central Bank noted.
How much can you earn on bonds
Brokers have confirmed that investors are now actively investing in OFZ. Annual inflation is gradually slowing down — in October it was 7.7% after 10% at the beginning of the year. Investors expect the Central Bank to reduce the key rate more actively in 2026.
— The Russian stock market is currently experiencing a unique situation where real product yields (the rate minus inflation) are reaching historical records. Many investors are in a hurry to fix it," said Dmitry Lesnov, Deputy General Director for Brokerage Business at Finam.
OFZ yields are approximately 14-14.2% for short–term loans and 14.3-14.7% for medium and long-term loans, explained Egor Zinoviev, an analyst at Digit Broker. Usually such bonds are issued for a long time — for three, five or even 10 years.
At the same time, investors expect to earn not only on coupon payments on bonds, but also on an increase in their value, which they will receive by the time they close.
— By the end of 2026, the key rate may decrease to 12% per annum. In total, investors will be able to earn up to 29-30% yield on government bonds — not only through coupons, but also through rising prices of the bonds themselves," Lyudmila Rokotianskaya, an expert on the stock market at BCS World Investments, confirmed.
Moreover, reducing the rate to 8-9% by the end of 2027 may give investors a return of 60-65%, said Nikolai Leonenkov, Director of Corporate Finance at the Rikom-Trust investment company. The lower the key value drops in the future, the more benefits fixed coupon bonds will bring.
In 2025, OFZs have already increased by about 22% since the beginning of the year, and corporate bonds of reliable issuers have added almost 25%, Nikolai Leonenkov recalled.
What other assets can bring income
The maximum yield on OFZs with a fixed income reaches almost 15% per annum, while deposit rates have now dropped below this level, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. Interest on deposits will continue to decrease, so it makes sense for investors to shift money into instruments with higher returns and a comparable level of risk.
Fixed-coupon bonds can now take up more than half of investors' portfolios, said Dmitry Lesnov from Finam. In addition to OFZs, corporate bonds with a rating of at least "ruBBB-" from companies with moderate debt loads and from stable sectors, such as oil and gas and retail, will be in demand, added Egor Zinoviev from Digital Broker.
At the same time, it still makes sense to keep a significant share of funds on deposits — as long as the rates on them remain at a high level, said Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Finance Global. It is also worth paying attention to gold, which has risen in price by one and a half times since the beginning of the year, to $ 4,200 per ounce. Of course, bonds should not be overlooked, as they promise high returns. The remaining funds can be invested in shares of issuers that consistently pay dividends.
In addition, investors are increasingly replenishing brokerage accounts as the foreign policy situation improves, Finam concluded. The potential settlement of the Ukrainian conflict will lead to a fairly serious increase in most asset classes on the stock market. According to various estimates, they are currently undervalued by 30-40%. As the situation resolves, investments in Russian assets will become more attractive.
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