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Drain Cossack: leakage of negotiations between Russia and the United States will complicate the peace process
US President's Special Envoy Steve Witkoff will arrive in Moscow next week to discuss a plan to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. Donald Trump said that only a few controversial points remained in the document. Prior to that, in Geneva, the United States and Ukraine agreed on an updated version of the plan, removing from it the issues of recognition of Russian territories, Kiev's accession to NATO and the lifting of sanctions. Against this background, the details of Witkoff's conversation with Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov got online. Such leaks complicate the negotiation process and increase the risk of disruption, Konstantin Kosachev, Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council, told Izvestia. Experts believe that American intelligence officers may be behind this.
Witkoff will come to Moscow
US President's special envoy Steve Witkoff will arrive in Moscow next week to discuss a peace agreement with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. The head of the White House, Donald Trump, did not rule out that his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, could go with Witkoff. This information was also confirmed in Moscow. According to Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov, Russia and the United States have reached a preliminary agreement on Witkoff's visit. At the same time, he noted that the Russian side had not discussed the details of the peace plan in any way.
At the same time, the media reports that it may have been discussed in the UAE. On November 25, an informal meeting of the Russian and US delegations was allegedly held in Abu Dhabi. The American side was led by Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll, who had previously met with Vladimir Zelensky in Kiev. The Western press wrote that Driscoll had given the Russian side Trump's plan, edited at the last talks in Geneva.
The Kremlin has not officially commented on this information. Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he had nothing to say about the matter and that Moscow had different channels of communication with Washington. Ushakov shed some light on what was happening on November 26. He said that representatives of the special services of Ukraine and the Russian Federation sometimes discuss various issues in the UAE, including prisoner of war exchanges, and Driscoll appeared at one of the last meetings.
"During this meeting, there was also a "piano in the bushes" — this is the new US representative who is currently dealing with the Ukrainian dossier. He also showed up there and had a meeting, as I understand it, with Ukrainian representatives, and it was probably discussed in advance. And I also met with our representatives quite unexpectedly," Ushakov said.
The most important question remains why so many details about the negotiations, which should formally remain secret, are becoming known at all. The answer to this question is partly provided by recent European and American leaks.
On November 26, Bloomberg published a transcript of a telephone conversation that Witkoff had with Ushakov, discussing the peace plan for Ukraine. The American special representative advised how to present Moscow's proposals to Trump, including options for securing Russia's control over the territories liberated by the Russian army and creating a demilitarized zone around them.
Of course, any negotiations have a chance of success only when they are conducted behind closed doors, Konstantin Kosachev, Vice Speaker of the Federation Council, told Izvestia.
— Any leaks of uncoordinated documents, the content of these negotiations, especially the interception of phone calls or any other communication channels - all these are phenomena of the same order. All this dramatically complicates the negotiation process, complicates it and, of course, carries the risk of its disruption," he said.
The senator noted that the situation undoubtedly requires analysis, but expressed the hope that this would not affect the further course of negotiations.
Representatives of the US intelligence services are involved in the leaks
The conversations between Witkoff and Yushakov are causing a stir for a reason. According to Bloomberg, it was their contacts in mid-October that caused the Tomahawk missiles to never be transferred to Kiev. After that, a plan allegedly appeared, which included territorial concessions from Kiev and Ukraine's refusal to join NATO.
Ushakov, in an interview with Russian journalists, confirmed that the conversation had indeed taken place, and complained that someone was leaking or intercepting details of closed contacts. The leaks show the agony of the "deep state" in the United States, Andrei Klintsevich, head of the Center for the Study of Political and Military Conflicts, told Izvestia.
— Technically, only Americans could have access to such materials. This suggests that the drain is playing against Trump. Through the leak, they are trying to discredit both Witkoff and Ushakov," the expert said.
Klintsevich suggested that individual representatives of the American and British special services, together with politicians of the US Democratic Party, could be behind this drain.
The leak could hit the positions of Witkoff, who has long been trying to discredit in the United States, according to political analyst Yuri Svetov. He was even called a "Russian agent."
— If Witkoff arrives in Moscow accompanied by Jared Kushner, it will mean that President Trump fully trusts them. Therefore, there will be pressure on Witkoff from all sides," the political scientist noted.
At the same time, those who got the transcript were unlikely to be able to put pressure on Trump. The head of the White House told reporters that there was nothing unusual in the negotiations, and Witkoff's concessions on Ukraine were "a common negotiating tactic."
— He [Witkoff] has to sell it to Ukraine, and then sell [offers] Ukraine and Russia. That's what someone who knows how to make deals does. You need to say, "Look, they want this, you need to convince them," he said.
Trump's new Plan
It is still not known for certain what the document looks like and what it includes. Ushakov stated that Moscow had received several options. At the same time, the number of points of the plan in media publications is constantly changing. At first there were 28 of them. Then the first Deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine, Sergey Kyslytsa, told the FT that after many hours of discussions in Geneva, the parties were able to agree on the basis of a new draft of 19 points. At the same time, the "most controversial issues" were put out of brackets, that is, as points that are not considered to be an agreed text and are left for further discussion by the leaders.
According to him, these include primarily territorial issues, Ukraine's status in NATO and the size of the Armed Forces. Zelensky wanted to discuss these issues with Trump, but the head of the White House made it clear that he did not intend to meet with the Ukrainian leader until these points were agreed with Moscow.
Interestingly, the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Ermak, who, according to journalist Tucker Carlson, has corruption-related dirt on the WSJ, was very upset when he learned about Trump's decision. After seeing the post of president of the United States during an interview with The New York Post, Ermak wilted, "apparently devastated by the news."
There are other controversial aspects of the plan, such as clauses providing for a cease-fire, which Moscow does not agree to until the conclusion of the main agreement. In addition, the document mentions enhanced American security guarantees for Ukraine, an expanded package for reconstruction and long-term financing, which involves the use of frozen Russian assets.
However, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that there could be no question of any concessions from Russia. The most important points for Moscow are those that were identified at the beginning of the special operation in Ukraine, Svetov stressed. These are issues of demilitarization and denazification, that is, limitations of the Ukrainian army in terms of numbers and protection of the Russian language. In general, the issue of the number of armies causes great resonance — in the American and European terms, the figures even differed. And recently, the head of the European Diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, said that Russia should also limit its armed forces.
"We can say that if we limit the size of the Ukrainian army, then some restrictions will be imposed in certain areas of the western part of Russia," Pekka Tovery, head of the Ukraine—EU parliamentary cooperation committee in the European Parliament, told Izvestia. — But in any case, they (the Russian armed forces. — Izvestia) should not be bigger than the Ukrainian forces.
According to Tovery, this could be done on the basis of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE Treaty). At the same time, on November 7, 2023, Russia finally withdrew from the treaty. And it is unlikely that Moscow would make such concessions, especially considering the size of the Russian territory and the length of the border.
— In its current form, this plan is an attempt to be "both ours and yours," but more, of course, "yours" than ours. And since we are a winning country, we should be talking about Ukraine's surrender," Yuri Svetov said.
The political scientist admitted that following the results of Witkoff's visit to Moscow, a Russian version of the peace agreement may also appear.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
