To sue trust: will the "Mindich case" bring Zelensky's resignation closer
The corruption scandal — the so—called "Mindich case" - undermines the trust of Ukrainians and Western countries in official Kiev, Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs Grigory Karasin told Izvestia. According to him, what is happening in the country now indicates that Zelensky's regime has gone bankrupt. The Verkhovna Rada published the NABU's conclusion on the corruption case, which mentions the names of both the President of Ukraine and the head of the National Security and Defense Council, former Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. Together with dismissals in the cabinet and the possible resignation of the head of the office of the President, Andriy Ermak, this could undermine the entire vertical of Ukrainian power, experts say. How the scandal is developing and whether it will lead to a change of power in Ukraine is described in the Izvestia article.
The names of Zelensky and Umerov appeared in the "Mindich case".
The growing corruption scandal surrounding businessman Timur Mindich, a close associate of Vladimir Zelensky, is leading to a loss of confidence in the Kiev leadership from both Ukrainians and Western countries, Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs Grigory Karasin told Izvestia.
— The corruption scandal has undermined confidence in the current Ukrainian leadership, primarily within the country. I am convinced that Ukrainians, sitting in their kitchens, have a very unflattering assessment of the situation in the upper echelons of power in Kiev. The Zelensky regime is facing difficult times. Perhaps there is unrest in the Ukrainian regions, who understand that, against the background of appeals and slogans, there is simply a theft of the very billions that Western curators transfer," the senator believes.
The day before, the Verkhovna Rada published the conclusion of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) in the case of Timur Mindych, who is accused of creating and leading a criminal organization, legalizing proceeds from crime, and illegally influencing members of the Cabinet of Ministers. The documents for the first time mention the names of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky and the head of the National Defense and Security Council (NSDC), former Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.
In particular, it is reported that the businessman, taking advantage of "the presence of friendly relations with President of Ukraine Zelensky V.A., connections with current and former senior officials <...> decided to illegally enrich himself by organizing crimes in various sectors of the Ukrainian economy."
Umerov's name is mentioned in connection with the episode when Mindich persuaded the Minister of Defense to purchase low-quality bulletproof vests from one of the companies. Meanwhile, Umerov is abroad these days — he went to Turkey to discuss, according to the Ukrainian side, prisoner of war exchanges between Russia and Ukraine. However, the version that the official left the country because of possible criminal prosecution looks very convincing in the current situation.
In Europe, the news about corruption in Ukraine was met with hostility. So, in Poland, they said that the European Union would not accept Ukraine into its ranks with such a high level of corruption in the country. "This is one of the first conditions for negotiations on EU membership — a corrupt country cannot join the EU," said Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysh.
"Even the Western curators, in my opinion, have lost confidence that they are helping the very government that was initially targeted in the capitals of NATO and the European Union," Grigory Karasin added.
The Kremlin also noted that European countries are "experiencing serious discomfort" because of everything that is happening in Kiev. An important role is played by the fact that, against the background of the scandal, confidence in Zelensky is rapidly falling. Over the past week, due to a corruption scandal, the rating of the president of Ukraine has fallen by 40% and now stands at less than 20%, said Verkhovna Rada deputy Yaroslav Zheleznyak, citing the results of closed sociological research. Earlier, the Parliament also called for Zelensky to be checked for treason.
Ukrainians feel "betrayed" and "demotivated" due to the protracted conflict and the "Timur Mindich corruption case," the press service of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) reported, citing data from European foreign policy agencies and intelligence agencies.
Will the scandal lead to elections in Ukraine
Amid the acute crisis, Volodymyr Zelensky had to undergo layoffs and government reshuffles: he announced the resignation of Energy Minister Svetlana Grinchuk and Justice Minister German Galushchenko.
"It's a shameful situation. No one knows how Zelensky and his team will get out of it," Grigory Karasin believes. — All this suggests that the regime has gone bankrupt. And the military actions they are conducting under the leadership of the NATO bloc are doomed to failure.
The Parliament has already demanded the resignation of the entire cabinet. The leader of the opposition European Solidarity party, Petro Poroshenko, said that 51 signatures of deputies had already been collected under the resignation of the government, which, however, was not enough for success. The story of the possible resignation of the head of the president's office, Andrei Ermak, who may be directly involved in Mindich's corruption schemes, looks much more interesting.
According to media reports, members of the ruling Servant of the People party have formed their own "coalition of the resolute." Its participants threaten to leave the parliamentary faction if Yermak is not removed from office. According to People's Deputy Alexei Goncharenko, Zelensky is going to dismiss his assistant on Thursday, November 20, and appoint ex-ambassador to the United States Oksana Markarova as the new head of the presidential office.
At the same time, Ermak's resignation could undermine the entire vertical of Ukrainian statehood, so Western countries are unlikely to support such a step by Zelensky, political analyst Denis Denisov told Izvestia.
— It is these people [Andrey Ermak] who are responsible for the architecture and governance of the country. Western partners understand that if this system is broken, then there is a possibility that the state will not be able to stand it," the political scientist noted.
According to him, the current corruption scandal is unlikely to bring the elections in Ukraine closer with the possible replacement of Zelensky.
"Any election is an overstrain of the political system, and in today's conditions, holding presidential or parliamentary elections is political suicide for the system," he believes.
Earlier, the United States insisted on holding presidential elections in Ukraine. In February 2025, after the inauguration, Trump accused Zelensky of "dictatorship" precisely because of the lack of elections. Now, by publicizing corruption scandals, the United States is preparing the ground for a change of the head of state, said Verkhovna Rada deputy Artem Dmitruk.
Nevertheless, we should not expect a vote in the near future, as haste is not beneficial for the United States. "They are not interested in real elections until the scenario of regime change is clear. They want a controlled transition of power, not a spontaneous political explosion," the deputy said.
On May 20, 2024, Vladimir Zelensky's presidential term ended. Scheduled elections scheduled for March 31 were canceled due to martial law, which prohibits voting under Ukrainian law.
So far, no practical actions have been taken as a result of the investigation, with the exception of dismissals in the government, so it's premature to talk about early elections to replace Zelensky, says Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation.
— So far, all this is at the level of conversations and statements. Even the parliament did not accept an official appeal to the government on the resignation of the Cabinet of Ministers and Ermak. It is possible that a judicial investigation may begin against the defendants in the case, but at the moment it is too early to talk about this," he added in an interview with Izvestia.
However, if Zelensky does decide to dismiss Ermak, then in the future it is possible that the same fate will befall the leader of Ukraine himself, Alexander Dudchak, a leading researcher at the Institute of CIS Countries, told Izvestia. In the near future, the situation around the corruption case will continue to escalate, directly affecting the internal balance of power in Ukraine, the expert concluded.
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