Magnetic storm forecast for 2026: record geomagnetic activity expected

The year 2025 could be a record year for the number of magnetic storms in the last ten years. Increased solar activity, an increase in the number of flares and coronal mass ejections pose increased risks to the health of weather-dependent people and the stability of technical systems. Experts advise to prepare in advance and monitor forecasts in order to minimize the impact of geomagnetic disturbances. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

Forecast of solar activity in 2026

Head of the Laboratory of Solar Astronomy at the Institute of Space Research (IKI) RAS Sergey Bogachev said that the level of geomagnetic activity remains high, but is on the decline. Therefore, this year it will be weaker than that already recorded in 2024, and next year it will be weaker than this year.

"There are well-established cyclical total activities that consist of 11-year lists with a minimum between them. Based on all the data, we are currently in a phase of decline from the last peak, which was last year, to a minimum, which will be around 2030. I will not say that we are right close to the minimum, that is, we are still quite far from 2030," the expert said.

Another important factor is coronal holes (areas on the Sun with a reduced plasma density), which emit solar wind streams. These emissions can be directed towards the Earth and cause powerful geomagnetic disturbances, even without bright flashes. The combination of all these processes increases the risk of more frequent and intense magnetic storms.

Forecast of the number and strength of magnetic storms in 2026

According to the IKI RAS, in 2025, an unprecedented number of magnetic storms were registered over the past ten years, including several powerful ones of the G3, G4, and even almost G5 levels.

This trend is also indicated by forecast models based on physically justified cycles, which imply that increased solar activity may persist in the coming years.

Long-term quantitative forecasts of geomagnetic activity for 2026 remain highly uncertain. Despite the fact that the solar cycle as a whole is peaking and entering a decline stage, scientists warn of the risk of individual "abnormal" flares and that coronal holes can generate steady streams of high-speed solar wind.

Such flows cause repeated disturbances of the magnetosphere and, as they are exposed for a long time, increase the likelihood of moderate to severe G2–G3 geomagnetic storms. However, none of the major space weather centers currently provides an accurate numerical estimate of the increase in the number of storms in 2026, so the forecast remains probabilistic and will be updated as observational data becomes available.

How frequent storms can affect health and well-being

Geomagnetic storms have an impact on humans not only through technological consequences, but also through well-being. Studies also show a link between bursts of geomagnetic activity and an increase in the number of hospitalizations with cardiovascular diseases. According to some researchers, on days of powerful magnetic storms, the risk of heart attacks and exacerbations of chronic diseases increases.

At the same time, experts warn that weather dependence is a complex phenomenon, and people's reactions vary greatly. Some may experience noticeable symptoms, while others remain almost unaffected.

Nevertheless, during the period of increased solar activity, preventive measures are recommended: blood pressure control, stress elimination, regular sleep and attention to the general condition.

Geomagnetic disturbances can also disrupt biological rhythms and affect sleep quality: a revision of the routine, a reduction in exposure to artificial light in the evening and increased physical activity during the day can help mitigate the negative effects.