Translate the shootout: Thailand and Cambodia question Trump's peacekeeping efforts

The renewed military escalation between long-time enemies Thailand and Cambodia has interrupted the peace agreement brokered by the American president. As a result of the shooting, there is already at least one dead and three injured, Cambodia is evacuating its citizens from border villages. Experts note that the peace agreement was concluded in a hurry, it does not solve the causes of the conflict, and hatred of the neighbor is growing in both countries. Whether it will be possible to stop the escalation on the border of Cambodia and Thailand is in the Izvestia article.

A new round of escalation between Thailand and Cambodia

The peace agreement between Thailand and Cambodia was presented by Donald Trump as his next victory – another resolved international conflict. However, the peace turned out to be short-lived. Two weeks later, tensions on the border of the two countries resumed.

On November 10, the Thai Royal Air Force called for the termination of all agreements, citing a violation of the agreements. On the same day, Prime Minister Anuthin Chanvirakun ordered the suspension of the provisions of the Kuala Lumpur Peace Agreements. They envisage disarmament as part of efforts to normalize relations between the two countries.

The prerequisite for this escalation was the explosion of a Thai soldier patrolling the border on a mine, he lost his leg. Cambodia was blamed for the incident. Thai authorities claim that the mine was installed recently. A few days later, there were reports of a shootout at the border, as well as one dead Cambodian civilian and three injured. On November 13, Cambodia ordered the evacuation of several hundred people from a village on the border.

Thailand's actions are contrary to the humanitarian spirit and recent agreements on the peaceful resolution of border issues, according to Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet. The country insists: She continues to remain committed to the peace agreement, and also rejects accusations of laying new mines. According to the Cambodian authorities, they have remained there since the civil war of the 1970s and 1980s.

The border between Thailand and Cambodia is 817 km long, and the neighboring countries have been in conflict over territorial claims for many years. The last clashes took place in July. At least 48 people died and about 300,000 were temporarily displaced from their homes. The talks took place on July 28 in Kuala Lumpur with the mediation of the United States and China. The official truce was already concluded with the participation of the American president at the ASEAN summit in Malaysia.

The possibility of returning to a peace agreement

Even at the time of the agreement, experts noted that the agreement was nothing more than a prolonged cease—fire. The countries still do not trust each other, and the causes of the conflict have not been resolved (in particular, the ownership of the temples of Preahvikhea and Ta Moan Thom). Foreign analysts note that the Kuala Lumpur agreement seems hasty, the parties only agreed to take confidence-building measures, but did not reach a consensus on how to resolve the conflict in the long term.

As for mediation on the part of Donald Trump, according to the expert community, he most likely had a greater interest in getting benefits for his country, rather than in achieving long-term peace. In particular, as a result of the agreement, the United States gained access to Thailand's rare earth metals.

— The American leader continues to play the role of a diplomatic mediator, but not a geographical ruler of the boundaries of the world map. The politically ambivalent but rhetorically advantageous position of Donald Trump, who, upon returning to power, immediately abandoned the bright electoral ambition of resolving all world conflicts overnight, opens up endless spaces for him to interpret his own peacekeeping efforts in the eyes of Americans," American scientist and HSE analyst Egor Toropov told Izvestia.

If the current escalation takes the path of greater escalation, Trump may again resort to the threat of higher tariffs (after reaching agreements, both conflicting parties received a reduced rate), but this is unlikely to have an effect, the media writes. In Thailand, they are generally unhappy with such pressure and consider it a threat to national sovereignty.

It is unlikely that we will be able to return to the truce in the near future, Elena Polltsina, senior researcher at the Center for the Study of Vietnam and ASEAN at the ICSA RAS, told Izvestia.

— It is necessary to establish the root causes of the crisis. Now it will look like a sluggish conflict. The border will continue to remain closed. There are extreme nationalist sentiments on both sides of it — anti-Cambodian in Thailand and anti-Chinese in Cambodia. It is difficult to come to some kind of constructive friendly dialogue, even at the business level," the expert notes.

Multinational companies, such as Honda and Mitsubishi, can contribute to at least a minimal freeze. They have the potential to lobby for a cooling down of the situation, since conflict, interrupting supply chains, incurs financial costs and leads to risks of further production, Pyltsina noted.

The crisis requires a more balanced and thorough resolution, says Pavel Shaternikov, a junior researcher at IMEMO RAS.

— The situation with the explosion of Thai soldiers on mines is a reason to resolve the issue around the temples. This is a fundamental issue for both Thailand and Cambodia. And the battle for the temples is a question of whose nationalist project, whose vision of history will win," Shaternikov said.

Thailand is currently testing the ground, the expert continues, to understand how much the international community supports Cambodia. And if this support is low, a military solution to the issue is possible, given the superiority of the Thai army over the Cambodian, he concluded.