Explosive war: terrorist attack in India risks aggravating the situation in the region

If the investigation reveals a Pakistani trace in the terrorist attack in India, it may provoke an exchange of blows between New Delhi and Islamabad, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. This time, the militants struck at the heart of the country — in the capital. In previous suicide attacks, the authorities of the republic often blamed terrorists from Pakistan — India has historically had tense relations with this country. At the same time, on November 11, another terrorist attack took place — this time in Pakistan itself.

The problem of terrorism in India

The terrorist attack in New Delhi claimed the lives of nine people, and 20 others were injured. On November 10, a car with a detonator exploded in a place where there are usually a lot of people. Indian police are investigating the explosion as a terrorist attack, media reported, citing sources. The explosives were allegedly planted by a suicide bomber, doctor Umar Mohammad, who was a member of a terrorist group operating in Faridabad District (Haryana State).

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered condolences to the families of the victims and promised to punish the perpetrators.

— The horrific incident that took place last night in Delhi has deeply shocked everyone. Our services will get to the bottom of this conspiracy. The conspirators will not go unpunished. All those responsible will be brought to justice," he said on November 11.

After the incident, traffic was stopped, and the Indian authorities imposed a high-alert regime on the border with Pakistan and Bangladesh. According to India Today, two of Mohammad's brothers were detained, and mobile phones were seized from his other relatives. Recently, Indian security forces prevented another terrorist attack in the state of Haryana, which was being prepared by supporters of the Pakistan-based radical extremist group Jaish-i-Mohammad (JeM), The Times of India wrote. As a result, three suspects were arrested. 350 kg of explosives, detonators and bomb assembly materials, automatic weapons and ammunition were found in their caches. The main goal of the group is the separation of Kashmir from India.

The situation with terrorism in India remains quite tense, largely due to the fact that suicide bombers are active in the country, who are being sent from Pakistan by a number of terrorist organizations, Vladimir Sotnikov, a political scientist and orientalist, told Izvestia. The militants are mainly operating in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir, however, as the latest attack showed, they were able to reach, apparently, the capital. However, while the investigation has not officially revealed a Pakistani trace, it is too early to draw final conclusions, the expert said.

— This terrorist act is aimed at intimidating the government of India, to show that if it takes active efforts to neutralize terrorists in Pakistan, then terrorists will operate everywhere in India. The Indians had already done this before: they struck deep into the territory of Pakistan in order to neutralize terrorist groups," explains Sotnikov.

The problem of terrorism in the republic has deep roots, Tatiana Shaumyan, head of the Center for Indian Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted in a conversation with Izvestia. In 1948, Indian national leader Mahatma Gandhi was assassinated, and Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi was assassinated in 1984. The early terrorist attacks were not related to tensions with Pakistan, but today we can directly talk about active underground anti-Indian activities on the part of Islamabad.

"The Indian government is taking political measures from the point of view of ensuring security, but it has not yet been possible to avoid this," the expert states.

At the same time, the Pakistani authorities, for their part, do not always manage to prevent such incidents. The day after the explosion in New Delhi, a suicide bomber staged a terrorist attack in Islamabad. At least 12 people were killed and 27 others injured, GEO TV channel reported. Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi said that the terrorist tried to enter the building of the capital's court, but having achieved success, attacked a police car in the parking lot near the building. The main problem of this country is related to Balochistan, a region divided between Iran and Pakistan. The Balochistan Liberation Army is trying to achieve political independence by regularly resorting to terror methods.

Could a terrorist attack lead to retaliatory strikes on Pakistan

India and Pakistan have been unable to resolve the territorial conflict for decades — clashes in Kashmir have been taking place regularly since 1947.

Recently, armed conflicts have regularly broken out between the countries, and India, in response to terrorist attacks on its territory, attacked places where the bases of the groups were allegedly located. Any terrorist attack like the car bombing in New Delhi could provoke a retaliatory attack by the Indian Armed Forces, Vladimir Sotnikov believes.

— Indeed, there may be another escalation. I am not saying that there may be some kind of another armed conflict, but there will be a serious escalation," the orientalist stressed.

The last time a conflict broke out between India and Pakistan was after the terrorist attack that took place on April 22 in the disputed region of Jammu and Kashmir, in the Baysaran Valley. The terrorists opened fire on civilians and a group of tourists. As a result of the attack, 27 people were killed and at least 12 injured. In early May, the Indian Armed Forces launched rocket attacks on the Pakistani zone of Kashmir during Operation Sindoor, followed by an armed response from Islamabad. On May 10, the parties announced a complete cease-fire. At that time, Pakistan officially suspended all trade with India, but the conflict itself did not escalate into a full-scale war. An important role in this was played by the fact that both India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons.

The terrorist attack in New Delhi can indeed lead to a serious escalation between the two countries, Tatiana Shaumyan agrees. At the same time, the main problem that prevents states from finally settling relations has become mutual distrust caused by the historical conflict.

— Both India and Pakistan do not trust each other so much that they rush to blame each other for all the acts. The peoples of both countries are tired of such an environment: to live forever when you go out on the street, and you don't know whether you will return home or not," the expert continued.

This situation cannot continue all the time: in the future, the leaders of the states must show the political will to restore mutual trust, Shahumyan is sure.