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- Fuel consumption: authorities have abandoned plans to return full payments on the damper
Fuel consumption: authorities have abandoned plans to return full payments on the damper
The authorities do not plan to return the full payments on the fuel damper. The extension of the reduction coefficient in the calculation formula may bring an additional almost 1 trillion rubles to the budget in 2027-2028. The Ministry of Finance has sent a corresponding proposal to the government of the Russian Federation, sources told Izvestia. In addition, the agency proposes to introduce the payment of a reverse excise tax on oil refining at foreign refineries and the return of petroleum products to Russia. Experts believe that these proposals are aimed at protecting the interests of all participants in the Russian oil and gas market, which have been most affected by sanctions, and these initiatives also hedge the risks of gasoline shortages in the country. Whether the proposed measures will compensate for the shortfall in oil workers' incomes and whether they will help maintain market stability is in the Izvestia article.
About the changes in the damping mechanism
The Ministry of Finance has sent to the government a draft amendment to the second reading of the draft law on amendments to the Tax Code of the Russian Federation. This was reported by a source of Izvestia in the industry. According to the reference to the draft tax amendments (available to the editorial staff), the main proposals number eight points and mostly relate to the activities of the country's oil refining industry.
In particular, the Ministry of Finance does not plan to return full payments on the damper. The Agency called for the extension of the special "Vspr" coefficient in the fuel damper calculation formula for 2027-2028. This coefficient takes into account the discount on Russian oil products when determining an export alternative. As noted in the document, "the measure reduces future potential payments for the damper."
According to Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of VMT Consult, the coefficient that takes into account the discount of Russian Urals oil to the Brent brand when calculating the indicative export price for fuel was introduced in September 2022. According to her, it was supposed to be in effect until the end of 2026. Later, in 2023 and 2025, the parameters of the "Vspr" were clarified, however, it was proposed to cancel the mechanism of adjusting the damper from 2027.
The estimated additional budget revenues in 2027 from the extension of the mechanism will amount to 422.8 billion rubles, and in 2028 - 493.1 billion, follows from the financial and economic justification of the bill. Thus, the total revenues from the proposed measure may amount to 1 trillion rubles over a specified period of time.
Recall that by the end of 2024, oil companies received 1.815 trillion rubles each. From January to October 2025, payments totaled 759.3 billion. This is evidenced by the data of the Ministry of Finance.
In addition, this fall, despite an unprecedented increase in stock prices for motor fuel (only gasoline prices have risen by 30-40% on the stock exchange since the beginning of the year), the government granted the request of the oil industry and imposed a moratorium on zeroing the fuel damper until May 2026, which occurs when wholesale prices exceed indicative prices.
The damping mechanism was created in 2018 and introduced in January 2019 to curb domestic fuel prices. If the export price of gasoline and diesel fuel is higher than the nominal domestic price, the government compensates companies for part of this difference so that they do not raise prices in the Russian Federation and vice versa. The damper is paid only if the average wholesale fuel price for the month has not increased more than the indicative (conditional domestic) 10% for gasoline and 20% for diesel fuel. The indicative price in 2025 is 60,450 rubles per ton for gasoline and 57,200 rubles for diesel fuel.
Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Finance and all major oil and gas companies in the country.
Reverse excise tax for imports
At the same time, experts believe that the extension of the coefficient is unlikely to actually bring almost 1 trillion rubles to the budget.
The fact is that, among other things, the Ministry of Finance proposes to introduce amendments to the Tax Code, involving the payment of a reverse excise tax on oil refining on toll-free terms outside the Russian Federation. At the same time, only a company authorized by the government will be able to process Russian oil outside the country and receive a reverse excise tax upon the return of petroleum products back to the Russian Federation.
"For organizations authorized by the government, the scope of application is expanded to include crude oil processed outside the Russian Federation under international agreements, in cases where the produced petroleum products are imported back into the Russian Federation," the amendment notes.
Thus, on the one hand, the extension for 2027-2028 of the coefficient reflecting the discount on Russian petroleum products reduces future payments on the damper, on the other hand, the state intends to pay a reverse excise tax to those who will refine their oil abroad, said Dmitry Kasatkin, Managing partner of Kasatkin Consulting.
However, Olga Orlova, head of the Industry department at the Institute of Oil and Gas Technologies, stressed that, in fact, regulators allow such a possibility by hedging the risks of a shortage of refining capacity, but this does not mean that these will be significant volumes. According to her, currently the oil refining capacities in Russia are designed not only to supply the domestic market, but also to export fuel. However, due to the fuel crisis related to unscheduled repairs, there is currently an export ban until the end of 2025 in order to increase stocks and eliminate the appearance of gasoline shortages in the country.
— During the crisis this year, we already bought motor fuel from Belarus, as local refineries are not operating at full capacity, including due to Western sanctions. In fact, Russia can send its oil for processing to Belarus and receive finished oil products back, if necessary. However, there is no certainty that such a need will arise in 2027-2028, the expert believes.
Therefore, according to her, it is difficult to calculate what effect the initiative to introduce a reverse excise tax on imports of petroleum products will have on the budget.
According to Dmitry Kasatkin, in general, the above-mentioned initiatives of the Ministry of Finance are aimed at protecting the interests of all participants in the fuel market, both manufacturers and the retail segment, and are aimed at eliminating the occurrence of gasoline shortages in the country.
What else did the Ministry of Finance suggest?
In addition, the Ministry of Finance proposes to set a zero excise tax rate on denatured ethyl alcohol used to make gasoline. The exemption from excise duty will apply if alcohol is supplied to an oil refinery that has an official certificate of oil refining.
At the same time, the ministry proposes to establish the right of manufacturers of automobile gasoline (Ai-92 and higher) to obtain a certificate for its production from denatured ethyl alcohol.
Earlier, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak suggested that the Ministry of Finance consider the possibility of creating incentives for the use of ethyl alcohol in gasoline production by abolishing the excise tax. It is expected that this initiative can increase fuel supplies by another 100,000 tons per month and make it economically profitable to produce gasoline with added alcohol. It is planned to increase the permissible share of ethanol in gasoline to 10% (instead of the current 1.5%).
Ethanol is able to increase the octane number of fuel and improve its environmental characteristics, since alcohol emits less carbon monoxide and solid particles during combustion. However, the use of ethanol requires the adaptation of technological processes at refineries and may cause corrosion risks in fuel systems of vehicles not designed for such mixtures.
According to Dmitry Kasatkin, we are talking about simplifying the admission of ethanol mixtures in gasoline AI-92 and higher, through a separate permit, which, on the one hand, expands opportunities in case of shortage, on the other hand, requires strict control by regulators.
In addition, the Ministry of Finance proposes to introduce a tax deduction from the mineral extraction tax for Gazprom from November 1, 2026 to July 31, 2027 by 2.44 billion rubles per month, from August 1, 2027 to July 31, 2028 by 3.5 billion rubles per month, from August 1, 2028 by 5.5 billion rubles per month.
As Yuri Stankevich, chairman of the State Duma Committee on Energy, noted in a conversation with Izvestia, different approaches to tax collection from independent gas producers and Gazprom raise questions.
— Providing the latter with a MET tax deduction is another measure of support in the context of a federal budget deficit. Apparently, the government assumes that the saved funds will be used by Gazprom to develop infrastructure projects, including a regional gasification program. But the additional revenue of independent producers, due to the indexation of gas prices in the domestic market, is withdrawn by the state, on the contrary. In my opinion, this approach once again calls into question the basic principle of equal taxation, demotivates market participants to increase their own efficiency in conditions of open competition," the deputy believes.
In addition, he draws attention to the fact that the package of amendments prepared by the Ministry of Finance does not include previously actively discussed measures to maintain oil production levels. The deputy recalls: according to the instruction of Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin dated May 24, 2025 (No. MM-P51-18596), following the results of the strategic session "Development of the oil Industry until 2050", the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Economic Development had to work out the possibility of adjusting tax regimes, including expanding the application of the tax code. Izvestia wrote about it.
— The implementation of such proposals will increase the efficiency and investment attractiveness of projects, primarily in Western Siberia. Judging by the lack of government decisions, the issue is postponed to 2026," the source said.
In general, according to him, the amendments to the Tax Code prepared by the government for the second reading are designed to solve two tasks: to create conditions for the appearance of additional volumes of petroleum products on the domestic market and to prevent a decrease in fiscal payments from the oil and gas industry.
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