Division in broad daylight: in Ireland, they fear the consequences of the seizure of assets of the Russian Federation

Ireland sees financial, legal and reputational risks in the forced confiscation of Russian assets, Russian Ambassador to the country Yuri Filatov told Izvestia. Dublin also fears that the "reparation loan" will hit the EU economy, experts say. At the same time, Ireland alone is not able to deploy the Brussels line. Meanwhile, the losses of Irish airline lessors from the severance of ties with Russia are estimated at about $300 million in irrevocable write-offs, Izvestia estimates. About why Dublin is so dependent on pan—European decisions and whether normalization of relations with Russia is possible - in the Izvestia article.

Will Ireland stand against it

There are ongoing discussions in the European Union about the use of frozen Russian assets. On November 7, Reuters reported that the United States supported the EU plan. At the same time, the negotiations in Brussels on this issue did not end on the same day. Belgium is still afraid of such a measure against Moscow and demands that the European Union distribute legal responsibility among all members of the association. Earlier, the media reported that Italy and France are also skeptical about the idea.

In addition, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said in an interview with SRTV that Bratislava would not participate in legal or financial agreements on the seizure of frozen assets if they were aimed at military support for Ukraine.

The fact is that the European Union wants to borrow 140 billion euros against 200 billion euros of Russian assets frozen in the Belgian Euroclear depository. Formally, this is not a confiscation, however, according to the Brussels plan, this debt will be covered either by reparations from Russia, or by the same percentage of assets that Europe is already actively using to support Kiev.

Russian assets have long aroused greed among unfriendly countries that would like to appropriate them from February 2022, Oleg Karpovich, vice rector of the Diplomatic Academy, told Izvestia.

— In the "rules-based world", these rules allow you to rob anyone at any time, but there are a number of countries that do not want to follow this vicious experience. We believe that the number of these prudent States will only grow. There is a growing demand for justice in the world. This is a kind of trend that has to be reckoned with," he added.

One of these countries could be Ireland. It also contains frozen Russian assets. We are talking about €1.9 billion, which was held by Irish credit and investment institutions in the form of accounts, deposits and securities. They do not fall under the general collateral for the reparations loan to Ukraine, as these are targeted freezes of private and corporate assets. At the same time, Ireland is still taking risks if the EU plan is implemented.

"Official Dublin has indeed signed up to the plan of the European Commission's leadership, in fact, to confiscate Russian assets and use them to finance the Ukrainian military, no matter how they arrange it with the usual reservations that Ireland allegedly participates exclusively in "non—lethal" assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine," said Russian Ambassador to Ireland Yuri Filatov. — This was done by the government of Michol Martin for reasons of quasi-solidarity with anti-Russian forces in Europe. At the same time, the Irish leadership is well aware that this is an adventure that inevitably creates specific financial, legal, reputational and political risks.

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The confiscation of assets by the European Union may lead to an outflow of investors from the eurozone, including from Ireland. China is one of the investors in the country's economy. According to data for 2023, his investments amounted to approximately €21 billion. If Dublin, along with the rest, takes a risky step towards Moscow, Beijing may withdraw its funds.

Meanwhile, the Russian ambassador recalled that the Russian diplomatic mission in Ireland recently issued a warning to local authorities that the confiscation of Russian assets would be considered robbery and a violation of international norms.

— We have already approved a mechanism for the confiscation of American property in the event of the confiscation of Russian property in the United States. Both sides did not use these mechanisms. Therefore, if the EU decides to take such actions, it is highly likely that retaliatory measures will be taken in Russia," added international affairs expert Polina Chupriyanova.

What else influences Ireland's position

Ireland's position is influenced by concern about the pan-European state of the economy, Sergei Shein, senior researcher at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, said in a conversation with Izvestia.

— Ireland, as a small country that has probably made the most of its membership in the European integration association, depends on the pan-European economic situation. Dublin sees that there is a certain real recession in the German economy as the locomotive of the entire EU economy, and small countries look at such suspicious steps from the point of view of possible impact on the European economy with doubt," he said.

At the same time, Ireland will not be able to openly oppose EU decisions. It will adapt to the regulations of the all-Union institutions. In this regard, everything depends on the EU, which must understand all the risks of a reparative loan, Shein added.

Nevertheless, active actions from Dublin should not be expected, given the weight of the country within the union, Polina Chupriyanova is sure. Meanwhile, the European Union takes the institution of private property seriously, so any actions regarding Russian assets will be carried out very carefully.

— An appropriate legal mechanism is needed to make any decisions regarding the confiscation of frozen assets of Russian individuals. The process of adopting such a mechanism can take a long time. Currently, the EU has only a mechanism for transferring income from Russian sovereign assets to Ukraine. But this is a completely different story," the expert noted.

Aviation sanctions against Russia

At the same time, it is worth noting that retaliatory measures have already been applied to Ireland by the Russian Federation. We are talking about leased aircraft that were owned by Russian airlines. In total, about 400 foreign aircraft remained on the territory of Russia, about 165 of which belonged to Irish companies.

Then, in March 2022, the skies of the European Union, the United States and the United Kingdom were closed to Russian aircraft. The EU also ordered lessors to terminate contracts with Russian airlines for aircraft operation by March 28. Under these conditions, the Russian government allowed its airlines to register foreign leased aircraft in its registry.

Ireland suffered the most from Russia's retaliatory measures. This country is a world leader in aviation. It accounts for about 65% of the global fleet of leased aircraft. The industry's giants are based in Dublin due to the low corporate tax rate, the legal system, and other factors. It was these giants that suffered as a result of EU sanctions in 2022.

— I would not like to get into legal details, but the problem with leased planes definitely did not arise through the fault of Russian airlines, which faithfully fulfilled and were ready to continue to fulfill the terms of existing leasing contracts with the Irish, — said Russian Ambassador to Dublin Yuri Filatov.

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The Europeans can copy the measures of the Americans, but more and more countries are opposed to harming national interests.

In 2022, Irish leasing companies lost about $4.6–4.7 billion. To get the money back, they had to go to the courts, and as a result, everything escalated into years of litigation with the Russian government, insurers, and airlines. For example, AerCap, SMBC Aviation Capital and Avolon received insurance payments only in 2025.

According to Izvestia's calculations, these three companies have irretrievably lost from $320 million to $370 million. The amounts are small by the standards of primary losses, but they could have been avoided altogether. As a result, the implementation of the Brussels standards for many industry players resulted only in losses and courts.

"Private European companies, in most cases, against their will and commercial interests, adapted to this line, although they themselves eventually suffered enormous losses as a result of severing business relations with Russian partners," Filatov stressed.

Is it worth waiting for the resumption of cooperation

Nevertheless, according to the Russian diplomat, there is reason to believe that the line of cooperation with Dublin in this matter has not been completely lost. But it's not that simple.

"As you understand, the aviation industry is completely dependent on government policies, so there is no prospect of resuming cooperation with EU countries in civil aviation in the foreseeable future," the ambassador concluded.

If the local authorities had not followed the path of freezing trade and humanitarian relations with Russia, then the demand for air transportation, including passenger transportation, could have quickly recovered, the Russian ambassador continued. Until 2022, Aeroflot's direct flight from Moscow to Dublin was very popular. There were also plans to open a direct air service from Ireland to St. Petersburg.

— Here we meet Irish aviators who well remember how our planes made transatlantic flights with a stop at the Irish Shannon airport, where the same Aeroflot had a full-fledged representative office. There is reason to believe that this "baggage" is not irretrievably lost. If Irish airlines can remain competitive, then why not cooperate with them again in the future, when the period of political turbulence in Europe is overcome? — summarized by Yuri Filatov.

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Ireland understands that it is better now not to go beyond the pan-European line on the issue of Russia, Shein pointed out. Ireland is a fairly loyal member of the anti-Russian coalition, so it's worth waiting for some progress from it.

Aviation sanctions primarily affected passengers and airlines, European Parliament deputy Milan Mazurek told Izvestia. Without the exchange of information, technology and expertise, both sides face a slowdown in progress.

"The path to resuming cooperation is relatively simple: it is necessary to review or remove restrictive measures that turn out to be counterproductive and harmful to both sides," the MEP stressed.

Such steps would create the basis for restoring trust between Russia and the European Union, the politician believes.