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Threshold of passage: how Lithuania is threatened by attempts to block transit to Kaliningrad
Lithuania closed its border with Belarus for a month on October 29. Earlier, President Gitanas Nauseda proposed to consider limiting transit to Kaliningrad, and the Foreign Ministry confirmed its readiness for such a scenario. The implementation of such a scenario may lead to a decrease in the level of diplomatic relations with Vilnius, Konstantin Kosachev, Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia. And Senator Grigory Karasin is confident that such actions by Lithuania will entail a response from Russia. Experts emphasize that it is unlikely that Vilnius will be able to arrange a real blockade of the western region of Russia, since this will conflict with the international obligations of the Baltic republic and will not find support even in the EU.
Possible blockade of transit to Kaliningrad
On October 29, the Lithuanian government formalized the closure of the border with Belarus for one month. Until November 30, it will be possible to cross it only at one checkpoint and only for certain categories of persons.
— Through it (Myadininkai checkpoint. Diplomats, transit persons to Kaliningrad, citizens returning to Lithuania, citizens of the European Union and NATO countries, as well as their family members, and persons with a residence permit in Lithuania will be allowed through. It is also possible to issue humanitarian passes," said Lithuanian Interior Minister Vladislav Kondratovicius.
The decision of the Lithuanian authorities did not affect the transit of people and goods to the Kaliningrad region, but it is possible that this issue is still on the agenda. Earlier, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda suggested considering the possibility of transit restrictions. Later, the country's Foreign Minister Kastutis Budris confirmed that Vilnius "reserves the opportunity" to close transit to the Russian region "to ensure security."
Nauseda made his statement against the background of ongoing incidents involving unknown balloons in the country's sky. According to Vilnius, they are being launched by cigarette smugglers from Belarus. At the same time, they interfere with the operation of Vilnius Airport. The country's Prime Minister Inga Ruginene called this a hybrid attack by Minsk on Lithuania and promised to take "tough measures."
Blocking transit to Kaliningrad may lead to a decrease in the level of diplomatic relations between Moscow and Vilnius, said Konstantin Kosachev, Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation.
— Exactly such a step can lead to a decrease in diplomatic relations. This will be an openly hostile step, moreover, it is a step that will violate Lithuania's international obligations to ensure Kaliningrad transit, which were worked out in coordination between Russia and the European Union, " he told Izvestia.
According to Kosachev, it would be inappropriate to maintain high-level diplomatic relations with Lithuania in such a situation. They were downgraded in 2022 to the level of temporary attorneys. Ilya Shcherbakov, an employee of the Department of International Relations and Integration Processes at the Faculty of Political Science at Moscow State University, believes that their further decline is possible.
"Lowering the level of relations is possible, but not actually, but rather through lowering the level of representation of some organizations, or working in some projects that previously, for example, operated on a joint basis," the expert told Izvestia.
However, according to Nikolai Mezhevich, president of the Russian Association of Baltic Studies, a further decline in the level of relations would be tantamount to a breakup. He emphasizes that the number of representative offices in both countries is already at a minimum.
"The Consulate General in St. Petersburg has been closed for a long time, there are only a few people left in the embassies," the expert told Izvestia.
Lithuania's actions will lead to a response from Russia
Alexey Bezprovannykh, Governor of the Kaliningrad Region, called Vilnius' statements about a possible blockade of transit to the region a provocation and a violation of the conditions of Lithuania's accession to the EU in 2004.
The blockade of Kaliningrad will be considered by Moscow as a violation of international law and the international agreements reached, Grigory Karasin, Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, confirmed to Izvestia.
In his opinion, the implementation of such a scenario would be "an absolutely clear, malicious action in order to aggravate relations with our country," and Russia's reaction in this case "will be very acute."
— If the Lithuanian authorities move from shaking the air to practical actions, of course, from the Russian side, as well as, I am sure, from the Belarusian side, no less harsh retaliatory actions will follow. They will also be of an applied, practical nature, which the Lithuanian authorities and NATO as a whole will definitely feel," Konstantin Kosachev said.
He stressed that the situation with balloons is being used by Lithuania for political purposes. Vilnius seeks to create additional resonance around itself in order to position itself as a member of NATO, which is at the forefront of the opposition of the Russian Federation and Belarus.
Russia has the political, diplomatic and military capabilities to respond to such a move by Vilnius, said Andrey Koshkin, head of the Department of Political Analysis and Socio-Psychological Processes at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
He noted that the recent tests of the Burevestnik intercontinental cruise missile with a nuclear power plant can be considered as a signal to Lithuania. In his opinion, Russia also needs to show the development of its civilian industry, which should play a role in the event of a blockade of the region.
At the same time, logistics routes to Kaliningrad have long been using the territories of Lithuania on a residual basis, explained political analyst Alexander Nosovich.
— The main passenger transportation is by air, the main cargo transportation is by sea. So now the supply of the Kaliningrad region and access to it is a matter of relations less with Lithuania, and more with Estonia and Finland," the expert told Izvestia.
Nosovich stressed that Tallinn and Helsinki have repeatedly raised the issue of blocking the exit of Russian ships to the Baltic Sea. According to the expert, this is also a form of blackmail against Russia.
The Governor of the Kaliningrad Region, Alexei Bezprozvannykh, also assured that an operational headquarters was operating in the region, which ensured transport accessibility in the face of sanctions restrictions. He added that the government is taking many measures in case of traffic restrictions in the Suwalki corridor.
This is not the first time the threat to transit has been voiced
It is worth noting that this is not the first time Lithuania has threatened to restrict cargo transit. Back in June 2022, Vilnius began applying EU sanctions to the transit of goods to Kaliningrad, which effectively prevented their free movement to the region. This marked the beginning of a crisis that lasted about three weeks.
Moscow then called Vilnius' actions a blockade and promised a response if the situation did not resolve. In July 2022, the European Commission issued a corresponding clarification stating that rail transit of sanctioned goods is possible, but added their limits.
The current statements of the Lithuanian president can only be interpreted as incompetence, political analyst Alexander Nosovich said in a conversation with Izvestia.
— In 2022, Mr. Nauseda, as head of state, constantly repeated that Lithuania had nothing to do with it at all: transit to the Kaliningrad region is provided by EU law, EU agreements, agreements between Russia and the EU, and so on. That is, this is the level of Brussels. And the fact that Lithuania temporarily restricted transit at that time was because the next package of sanctions against Russia did not include the traditional reservation about transit to the Kaliningrad region," the expert recalled.
Currently, Nauseda does not even refer to European law to substantiate his claims to restrict the transit of goods to Kaliningrad. This means one thing: if such a decision is made, it will be the political will of Vilnius alone, the political scientist believes.
"If Lithuania does this, then Russia will always be able to raise this statement of Aggression and say that in this case there is no Brussels, no European Union, this is Lithuanian arbitrariness," Nosovich stressed.
Mezhevich spoke in a similar vein. He recalled that Lithuania is not a party to the agreement between the EU and the Russian Federation regulating transit to the Kaliningrad region.
— The agreement was signed not by the government or the President of Lithuania, but by the European Union itself. So, theoretically, only Brussels or Moscow can cancel these agreements," the expert stressed.
At the same time, Lithuania will have no real allies in its decision, Nosovich is sure. Despite the demand for anti-Russian initiatives in the Baltic States, the escalation ladder that Vilnius may follow may lead to an armed conflict with Russia.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
