Island task: Russia is ready for a dialogue on a peace treaty with the new Japanese authorities

Moscow is ready for dialogue with the new Japanese authorities on a peace treaty, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko told Izvestia. But the diplomat clarified: for this, Tokyo must demonstrate a real attitude and interest in restoring good-neighborly relations. The newly formed government of the country immediately started talking about the need to conclude a peace treaty with Russia. However, experts are sure that the authorities are only trying to convince their citizens that the Cabinet of Ministers is not ignoring the Kuril issue, the resolution of which will lead to a peace treaty. Japan is also forced to maintain relations with the Russian Federation by the difficult economic situation. The prospects for contacts between Moscow and Tokyo after the change of prime minister are described in the Izvestia article.

Will it be possible to conclude a peace treaty with Japan

The governments of Japan are changing, but the Kuril issue remains. This week, Sanae Takaichi became the new Prime Minister of the country, the fifth in just over five years, and she formed a new cabinet.

Emperor Naruhito of Japan and Sanae Takaichi

Photo: REUTERS/Kyodo

First, Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, who returned to this post four years later, spoke about the most controversial moment in relations between Russia and Japan. In a restrained manner typical of almost all Japanese politicians, he elaborately stated that his country intends to continue to adhere to the position on the need to sign a peace treaty with the Russian Federation after resolving the territorial issue.

Moscow is ready to discuss all pressing issues with Tokyo, but subject to a change in the approach of Japanese counterparts to bilateral relations, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko told Izvestia.

"As soon as our Japanese colleagues demonstrate a real attitude and interest in resuming good—neighborly relations with Russia, as soon as official Tokyo shows signs of moving away from the destructive line it is pursuing now, we are ready to discuss all the issues that we previously had on the agenda with Japan," he said. The diplomat.

They have a premiere: will Takaichi change relations between Russia and Japan

The elected head of government wants to become the new Thatcher and already intends to revise the pacifist article of the constitution.

Speaking in parliament with a keynote speech, Sanae Takaichi later also confirmed that her government's policy is aimed at resolving the issue of the "northern territories" (as Japan calls the southern part of the Kuril Islands) and, accordingly, at concluding a peace treaty.

Sanae Takaichi speaks in Parliament

Photo: Global Look Press/Yoshio Tsunoda/AFLO

The Kremlin positively assessed the aspirations of the new Japanese government.

— Rather, such statements can be welcomed. We are also supporters of concluding a peace treaty with Japan," said Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation.

At the same time, Moscow points to Japan's very unfriendly position towards Russia, which has joined Western sanctions. That is why in recent years the bilateral dialogue has been reduced to almost zero.

"We have repeatedly said that we were not the initiators of what happened in our relations, this sharp decline in cooperation in all areas, which resulted in the freezing of negotiations on a peace treaty,— Andrei Rudenko told Izvestia.

The Kuril Islands. Iturup Island. View of the Yankito lava plateau

Photo: TASS/Yuri Smithyuk

Any progress in this direction is possible only if Japan eases the sanctions regime, but this is not yet discussed, and the desire to improve relations with the Russian Federation is not visible, draws the attention of Olga Dobrinskaya, Candidate of Historical Sciences, senior researcher at the Institute of China and Modern Asia. Meanwhile, Takaichi confirmed that Japan does not intend to change its position on the Ukrainian conflict and will continue to criticize the actions of the Russian Federation.

How the dialogue between Russia and Japan on the peace treaty developed

It is possible that the Japanese Prime Minister and Foreign Minister simply confirmed the traditional political course towards Russia regarding the conclusion of a peace treaty and the "return of the northern territories." The statements of the Japanese government are nothing more than a repetition of the software installation and a reminder to the Japanese public that the Cabinet of Ministers does not ignore the issue of the "return" of the four islands, Olga Dobrinskaya believes.

Indeed, the authorities have something to answer for in front of their citizens. The territorial issue is a problem for the Japanese not only from a reputational point of view, but also from a practical point of view. In particular, now they can't just come to the graves of relatives. In 2022, Moscow terminated the agreement with Tokyo on facilitated visits to the Kuril Islands by Japanese citizens who previously lived in Kunashir, Iturup and the islands of the Lesser Kuril Ridge. It was signed in 1999, which was the result of negotiations to reach a peace agreement. The Russian side also cancelled the 1991 agreement on visa-free exchange between the Kuril Islands of the Russian Federation and Japan.

Representatives of the Japanese visa-free delegation at the old Japanese cemetery in Yuzhno-Kurilsk on Kunashir Island

Photo: RIA Novosti/Stringer

Motegi called the resumption of trips to the southern Kuril Islands to visit the graves of relatives a top priority. And he really hopes for success on this issue, while acknowledging that there is currently no progress in negotiations on a peace agreement with Russia.

And this, however, is not surprising, since even Shinzo Abe, who pursued a fairly balanced policy and was on very friendly terms with Vladimir Putin, could not achieve significant results in this matter. In May 2025, at a meeting with Abe Akie's widow, the Russian president again spoke warmly about the late leader, saying that he had done a lot to restore relations between Moscow and Tokyo.

— Takaichi, Shinzo Abe's main protege, wants to follow in his footsteps — a peace treaty with Russia and a solution to the issue of the "northern territories" were among his main ambitions. But it didn't work. Therefore, it is natural that Takaichi and her supporters want this goal to be finally achieved," Saori Katada, director of the Center for International Studies at the University of Southern California, told Izvestia.

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Sanae Takaichi, chairman of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, took over the post.

However, there is no reason to think that Takaichi will use Abe's experience in order to restore and build exclusive mutually beneficial Japanese-Russian relations, said Oleg Kazakov, senior researcher at the Center for Japanese Studies at the Institute of China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Masked Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe talks with Interior Minister Sanae Takaichi

Photo: Global Look Press/Yoshio Tsunoda/AFLO

Any compromise that Japan may make with regard to Russia will create a conflict with the United States and Europe, Qatada emphasizes. Washington is Tokyo's main ally in the region, and, in fact, Japan owes its entire defense capability to the United States, so it is difficult to imagine a drastic change in its foreign policy towards the Russian Federation. However, Tokyo still adheres to a balanced line, for example, in the field of economy and tourism.

— There are some positive sentiments about the possible improvement of Japanese-Russian relations due to the difficult economic situation in Japan itself. This forces her to maintain relations with neighbors who may be interested in joint projects," Oleg Kazakov told Izvestia.

Japan maintains economic ties with Russia, primarily in the energy sector. For example, she is still involved in the Sakhalin-2 project, which is important for both countries. Tourism is also developing rapidly. The number of Russians who visited the country last September increased by 108.1% compared to the same period in 2024, setting a record for one month.