"The response will be very strong. If not to say stunning"
The new US sanctions, which affect Russian oil companies, will not affect the Russian economy. Nevertheless, this is an unfriendly step that will definitely not contribute to the normalization of relations between Moscow and Washington, Russian President Vladimir Putin said. The country reserves the right to retaliate, Leonid Slutsky, chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, told Izvestia. At the same time, Washington did not cross the red lines, deciding not to transfer Tomahawk missiles to Kiev, so the prospect of a dialogue between the Russian Federation and the United States remains, experts say. Whether both sides will be able to find a way out of the current situation and how the new sanctions will affect trade between the Russian Federation and other states is in the Izvestia article.
How will the sanctions affect further relations between Russia and the United States?
On the night of October 23, Donald Trump imposed major sanctions against Russia for the first time during his presidency. The restrictions affected the main Russian oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, as well as their 34 subsidiaries. Moscow took this step quite calmly.
Vladimir Putin had events scheduled for October 23 that dealt with the domestic agenda, and there was no place for world politics in them. But the journalists nevertheless asked the head of state questions on this topic. However, even when talking to the press, the head of the Russian Federation dispensed with harsh statements about the decisions of his American counterpart, with whom he had recently met in Alaska. Although such a step by the United States, of course, damages Russian-American relations.
Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump during a meeting in Alaska
— Of course, this is an act unfriendly towards Russia. This is an obvious thing, and it does not strengthen Russian-American relations, which have just begun to recover," Russian President Vladimir Putin said.
Nevertheless, the new sanctions will not significantly affect the economic well-being of the country, he added. At the same time, as for the meeting in Budapest, which was supposed to take place in the near future (at least that's what all the world's media wrote about it after the telephone conversation between Putin and Trump on October 16), it is necessary to prepare for it, so we are not talking about canceling, but about postponing it.
Meanwhile, all the talk about the possibility of supplying Tomahawk missiles to Kiev (so far, the United States has not decided on such a step) The Kremlin considers it an attempt at escalation.
"If such weapons are used to attack Russian territory, the response will be very strong. If not stunning," Putin stressed.
The United States is trying to put pressure on Russia with new sanctions, but no self-respecting country ever does anything under pressure. Therefore, the most favorable way out is to move on to a serious dialogue for the future, the president stressed.
However, it is not easy to establish a dialogue between Russia and the United States so far. But at least it's there, unlike the Joe Biden era. The current White House administration justifies the imposition of sanctions by "Russia's lack of serious interest in the peace process."
"President Putin did not enter into negotiations [on Ukraine] honestly and frankly, as we had hoped," said US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant.
But such pressure against Moscow will not change its course and may lead to retaliatory measures, Leonid Slutsky, chairman of the State Duma's International Affairs Committee, tells Izvestia.
— The United States imposed anti-Russian sanctions, which included Rosneft and Lukoil and their subsidiaries, in order, allegedly, to achieve progress in resolving the Ukrainian conflict. This is an absolutely counterproductive step that will not force Russia to change its course. Our country reserves the right to retaliate. But all this, of course, does not contribute either to the success of the negotiations or to the process of normalization of bilateral relations," he said.
Slutsky added: Trump is getting closer to the fact that the events in Ukraine have turned into more than just a "Biden war."
Among the possible retaliatory measures are sanctions against American enterprises, including the sale of rare metals to them, Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor of the MGIMO Department of Political Theory at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia. Secondly, cooperation in the field of peaceful space exploration may be frozen. In particular, the refusal of Roscosmos to service the remaining RD-180 rocket engines and supply new RD-181s was previously the most sensitive for the United States. Thirdly, the Russian Federation may expand restrictions on individuals from the United States, including high-ranking officials, the expert said.
Along with the imposition of sanctions, Donald Trump announced the cancellation of a meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest, which they agreed on during a telephone conversation on October 16. "There was a feeling that it was wrong. It seemed to me that we would not achieve the desired goal," Trump said at a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
Why is Trump's position changing
At the same time, the US leadership seemed to have left itself room for maneuver in advance. The United States is not abandoning plans to hold a meeting, said White House spokeswoman Caroline Levitt. Trump expressed the hope that the sanctions imposed would not last long, but the Ukrainian conflict would still be resolved. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also expressed a desire to meet with the Russian side: "I had a good telephone conversation with [Russian] Foreign Minister Sergey] Lavrov. And we will continue [work] based on this," he stressed.
Trump was furious that he could not reach an agreement in Anchorage, and repeating the meeting in Budapest would be a humiliation, says Jim Jatras, an ex-adviser to the leadership of the Republican Party. At the same time, the new sanctions and the cancellation of the meeting in Hungary cannot be called actions that can return Russian-American relations to the level of severe escalation, as it was before, Dmitry Novikov, associate professor and head of the HSE Laboratory of Political Geography and Modern Geopolitics, said in a conversation with Izvestia.
— The main red line has not been crossed. American officials, including the president himself, have said that this does not mean a reversal of U.S. policy in terms of support for Ukraine. As before, Washington does not seem to intend to carry out any arms supplies, in particular missile systems. Such a step rather indicates a certain tactical move, rather than a change of strategy in general," the expert explained.
Despite the fact that the Trumpists have toughened their position, catastrophic failures in the negotiations have not yet happened, agrees Georgy Asatryan, deputy director of the HSE IMVES Center, Associate Professor at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
— There is a complex process of lapping up the positions of the parties. An escalation of the conflict is quite possible. In some cases, even it can be beneficial to convince the opposite side," he believes.
Indeed, Trump has repeatedly stated before about the possible imposition of sanctions against Russia as the only way to put pressure on Moscow to resolve the Ukrainian conflict.
"This will be a severe blow with sanctions on banks, on the oil sector and in terms of duties," he said in early September. In February 2025, US Special Representative Keith Kellogg also threatened to deprive Russia of oil revenues. Thus, the introduction of restrictions has become part of the strategy that was previously developed in the White House.
At the same time, Trump's similar steps only confirm that the positions of the Russian Federation and the United States on Ukraine differ. "We would like them [Russia and Ukraine] to just stay on the front line, which has been formed for quite a long time, and go home," the head of the White House said. At the same time, Moscow opposes such a freezing of the conflict, because it will not eliminate its root causes, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on October 21.
— Trump is not confident in his ability to negotiate a peaceful settlement and therefore does not want to look weak in front of Putin. He seems to be in favor of an immediate cease—fire, while Putin firmly believes that such actions are pointless if the main causes and problems of the conflict are not recognized, considered and agreed upon," Said Khan, a professor at Wayne University in Detroit, told Izvestia.
At the same time, without a fundamental solution to the Ukrainian issue, the Russian Federation and the United States will not be able to move along other tracks of bilateral relations, Dmitry Novikov is confident. It is enough to recall the pause in the negotiations between Moscow and Washington on Ukraine, which lasted from the meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska in mid-August to their telephone conversation on October 16. During this period, the parties have not held a single meeting on the remaining tracks of bilateral relations.
But the closed contacts between Moscow and Washington will continue, because at the moment the United States has not crossed the mentioned red lines. "Perhaps some kind of complex of non-public proposals will be developed, which we will see after some time," the expert explained.
What could be affected by the US sanctions
The official document of the US Treasury Department states that the inclusion of Rosneft and Lukoil in the sanctions list entails the freezing of their assets in the country, as well as a complete ban on any transactions with these structures for American citizens and legal entities.
The replacement of Russian oil on the world market takes time, Vladimir Putin said. Unlike the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia sell more oil than they consume, and therefore make a significant contribution to the global energy mix.
— Now this balance, in general, is in the interests of both the consumer and the producer, it has been created. Breaking this balance is a very thankless task, including for those who are trying to do it," he said.
The White House is confident that the imposition of sanctions on oil companies will reduce Russia's revenues from the sale of energy resources, which will cause difficulties in financing military operations, said Khan. Trump's plan is that the main importing countries of Russian oil will abandon it due to the threat of secondary sanctions. China, India and Turkey buy the most "black gold" from the Russian Federation.
According to the law in force in the United States, the whole world must comply with the sanctions imposed by Washington, Ekaterina Arapova, Deputy Dean of the MGIMO Faculty of International Relations at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, reminded Izvestia. If some countries do not do this, the United States will impose secondary restrictions on them. In this case, the already mentioned China, India and Turkey may fall under them. However, over the past three and a half years, the Russian Federation and its trading partners have learned how to work with this.
— To offset this risk [of secondary sanctions], a payment scheme in national currencies is used. Therefore, every time new counterparties are sanctioned, the first reaction of the market is expectant," the expert noted.
In practice, such a reaction may result in delays in the transfer of payments under previously concluded contracts. "Again, these are temporary delays, not cancellations or cancellations of previously concluded foreign trade agreements," explains Arapova.
In fact, the summer situation may repeat, when the United States imposed secondary tariffs against India for the purchase of Russian oil. At first, there was a short-term failure, after which the business managed to adapt by reviewing its procurement schemes. Just like last time, Russia may give its partners a discount due to rising oil prices. Immediately after the sanctions were imposed, global quotations rose by 0.8%, and the cost of a barrel of Brent rose above $64 for the first time since October 10.
If the discount on Russian oil expands and foreign exchange earnings decrease, then the low ruble exchange rate may help, Tamara Safonova, CEO of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector, told Izvestia.
— The weakening of the exchange rate partially compensates for the shortfall in dollar revenues, since the budget is calculated in rubles. The share of oil and gas revenues in the budget is decreasing. Previously, it was close to 50%, now it is 30%, and by 2027 it is expected to be below 25%," she recalled.
It is no secret that the United States has previously imposed sanctions against the Russian oil and gas sector. In January 2025, two leading oil companies, Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, as well as more than 180 tankers, fell under the restrictions of the Biden administration. Therefore, the inclusion of two more large corporations in the lists will not be able to radically change the situation, Ekaterina Arapova is sure. After some time, the business adapts to the new realities, and no contract breaks should be expected.
Earlier, Reuters reported that Indian refineries had begun reviewing contracts for the supply of Russian oil, but there was no official reaction from New Delhi. If India does decide to abandon it, Moscow will look for other markets and counterparties that are willing to take on the risks, Dmitry Scriabin, portfolio manager at Alfa Capital Management Company, told Izvestia. However, in general, such a scenario seems unlikely.
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