Keep the plan: deputies proposed to finalize the budget for 2026-2028

The new draft budget is balanced and focused on the interests of the country's citizens. This assessment of the main financial plan was given by the Accounting Chamber. The budget for the next three years was supported by the majority of deputies in the first reading. By the second one, scheduled for November 18, the parliamentarians proposed a number of amendments. In particular, it is planned to increase payments for mortgage repayment at the birth of the third and subsequent children in the Far East, allocate additional funds for the overhaul of schools and ensure a softer transition of small businesses to the new tax rules. What else was discussed at the plenary session and why the Ministry of Finance is against raising taxes for banks is in the Izvestia article.

Budget priorities for 2026-2028

The State Duma approved in the first reading the draft law on the federal budget for 2026-2028. The document was supported by 323 deputies, 79 abstained, and no one voted against. The next review may take place on November 18, said Andrei Makarov, head of the State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes.

Treasury revenues in 2026 are planned at 40.3 trillion, in 2027 - 42.9 trillion, in 2028 - 45.9 trillion. The expenses will amount to 44.1 trillion, 46.1 trillion and 49.4 trillion, respectively. Thus, the treasury deficit in the next three years is projected at 3.8 trillion, 3.2 trillion and 3.5 trillion.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stressed at the plenary session that the main priorities of the budget for the coming years will remain fulfilling social obligations to citizens, financing defense and security, supporting the families of ITS participants, as well as achieving national development goals until 2030.

— We have tried to do everything to ensure that the budget solves all the issues facing the country, protects the interests of our citizens, because social standards are high. Despite the sanctions and threats from the European Union, the budget solves this task," said Vyacheslav Volodin, Chairman of the lower house of Parliament.

So, next year the living wage will increase to 18.9 thousand, and then to 19.7 thousand and 20.5 thousand by 2028. This will increase the amount of benefits and social benefits, said the head of the Ministry of Finance. The accelerated growth of the minimum wage will continue — in 2026 it will exceed 27 thousand. And by the end of the decade, it is planned to increase this figure to 35 thousand, Anton Siluanov said.

According to the minister, more than 10 trillion rubles have been allocated for measures to improve the demographic situation over three years. In particular, the funds will be used to pay a single allowance, a family mortgage and personal income tax deductions for parents with two or more children.

The development of education and healthcare will also continue. 3.6 trillion is provided for these purposes in 2026, 120 billion more than in 2025, the head of the department noted.

Anton Siluanov stressed that technological leadership and infrastructure development will also be one of the priorities. About $1.9 trillion has been allocated for national projects in this area. Overall, spending on the national economy will grow by 360 billion and reach 4.8 trillion in 2026, the minister added.

"The Accounts Chamber confirms the budget's balance, its full compliance with the budget rule and its overall focus on strengthening the country's financial sovereignty," said Boris Kovalchuk, head of the control body, at the plenary session.

The head of the Accounts Chamber also noted that the budget deficit is planned to be covered mainly by internal borrowing. The national debt will grow at a higher rate than previously expected. In 2026, it will amount to 43.7 trillion and reach 53.8 trillion by 2028. This indicator will increase from 17.7% of GDP this year to 19.5% by the end of three years. Debt servicing will require 3.9 trillion in 2026 and 4.6 trillion in 2028. At the same time, despite the growth in absolute numbers, its ratio to GDP will remain at a relatively low level compared to a number of countries and will not exceed 20%, Boris Kovalchuk emphasized.

What issues were raised during the first reading of the budget

During the plenary session, the deputies asked the Finance Minister a number of questions, including about a possible tax increase for banks. Anton Siluanov said that the Ministry of Finance would not support such a proposal.

— In conditions of high interest rates, we understand that they need to be reduced in order to make loans more affordable. The budget that we are considering today allows the Central Bank to give more opportunities to shift monetary policy. Therefore, we do not support the proposal to increase taxes on banks, as this may harm our economy," the minister said.

He also noted that the introduction of additional taxes on luxury is possible, but it will not give a significant increase in budget revenues. According to the head of the department, the Ministry of Finance has already considered the option of increasing the corporate fee for banks, but this idea was abandoned, since such a decision could reduce dividends from state-owned credit institutions.

A representative of the New People faction raised the issue of improving the effectiveness of tax incentives and clarified whether the government plans to initiate a review of them. In response, Anton Siluanov stressed that this topic is in the center of the Cabinet's attention.

He explained that a significant part of the benefits is of a social nature, and another large proportion concerns mining. Without such easing, projects become unprofitable, and production volumes may decrease. Therefore, according to the minister, it is important to evaluate each benefit in a targeted and balanced manner. He proposed, together with the deputies, to conduct an audit of the existing support measures and develop proposals for their optimization.

Sardana Avksentieva, a member of the same faction, also recalled that the replacement of commercial loans with budget loans made it possible to reduce the share of regional market borrowings from 22% in 2015 to 3% in 2024, but the total debt of the subjects is still high — about 3 trillion. She asked what measures are planned to be taken to stabilize the situation.

Anton Siluanov noted that the Ministry of Finance monitors the debt sustainability of entities: financial assistance agreements stipulate an obligation to maintain commercial debt no higher than 25% of their own income. If the region exceeds this level, stabilization measures are applied or support is allocated from the federal budget. According to the minister, there are few such cases, and they are constantly monitored.

The deputies' ideas on finalizing the financial plan

Andrei Makarov, Chairman of the Budget Committee, said that 21 relevant committees had submitted their proposals for finalizing the draft basic financial plan. Among the factions, the main package of amendments came from United Russia, as well as initiatives from the Liberal Democratic Party, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and New People.

The deputies recommended providing additional funds for the expansion of prosthetic and orthopedic care, subsidies to beneficiaries for the installation of gas equipment and social gasification, as well as for the overhaul of schools and the support of the Defenders of the Fatherland Foundation. In addition, it is proposed to increase payments for mortgage repayment at the birth of the third and subsequent children in families living in the Far East.

In addition, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation proposes to direct the tax on excess incomes of citizens (above 50 million per year) to import substitution and set a personal income tax rate of 40% for them. The New People insist on supporting youth entrepreneurship and technology companies. The SRP, in turn, advocates maintaining the current tax rates for developers of domestic software.

The Budget Committee also prepared proposals to finalize the amendments to the Tax Code, which were introduced as part of the budget package.

— In the opinion of the committee, the period of time provided for the entry into force of the measures proposed by the draft law may not be sufficient to prepare and adapt businesses to the new tax rules, these concerns were expressed in the numerous appeals received by the committee, — said Andrey Makarov.

The Committee proposes to provide for a smoother transition to new income thresholds by the second reading, at which taxpayers on the simplified taxation system (STS) become VAT payers (from 10 million per year), as well as a soft phased withdrawal of VAT benefits for Russian programs and databases. In addition, it is proposed to maintain the current reduced insurance rates for socially significant areas (for example, education, housing and communal services).

The deputies also recommend expanding the list of expenses taken into account in the tax system, taking into account the increase in the threshold to 450 million, and relaxing the rule prohibiting changing the VAT rate (5 or 7%) for three years to give businesses more flexibility.

What risks threaten budget execution?

The new financial plan for 2026-2028 differs markedly from the previous one in revenue structure and prioritization, said Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets. According to him, the key restructuring is related to the future increase in the base VAT rate to 22%, lowering the threshold for VAT from 60 to 10 million and changing the conditions for insurance premiums for SMEs, which will bring an additional 2.3 trillion to the budget next year. At the same time, socially important goods will retain a preferential rate of 10%, and pensions will be indexed by 7.6%, which combines the two indexations and confirms the fulfillment of social obligations.

— The main difference of the three—year period is the emphasis on technological sovereignty: almost 2.5 trillion has been allocated for the development of microelectronics, robotics and machine tool industry, which is higher than previous plans. The government is betting on long—term growth," Igor Rastorguev emphasized.

At the same time, a number of risks remain in budget execution, said Andrei Glushkin, a member of the Council of the MRO Delovaya Rossiya. Forecasts are based on a scenario of sustained GDP growth, however, if the economy slows down, income shortfalls may occur. Additional pressure may be created by inflation and currency fluctuations, which increase the cost of purchases and the indexation of payments. The risks are also reinforced by the pressure of external factors such as sanctions, global market conditions and logistics.

— However, these risks are under control: relevant departments are developing measures to minimize them, and key social obligations are protected, — Andrey Glushkin is sure.

According to him, a number of provisions should be adjusted by the second reading. In particular, it is necessary to provide additional mechanisms for adapting the budget to different economic scenarios. The system of control over transfers to regions and their execution should also be improved in order to avoid cash gaps and increase the effectiveness of expenditures, the expert believes.

By the second reading, according to Vladimir Klimanov, Director of the IPEI Center for Regional Policy at the Presidential Academy, it is worth discussing mechanisms to support business investment activity that could compensate for the restrictions caused by high key.