Painful split: Democrats put pressure on Trump over the shutdown

Democrats and Republicans failed to agree on a budget for the 11th time, which delayed the shutdown for almost three weeks. Against the background of serious problems in the work of courts, airports and cuts in funding for social programs, Republicans may make concessions to their opponents, experts interviewed by Izvestia admit. The budget split is exacerbated by the protests over Donald Trump's policies, as well as the ongoing FBI investigation. Recently, a sniper tower was discovered in the United States in direct line of sight from the president's exit from the plane at Palm Beach airport. About whether a new attempt on Trump is possible and what the shutdown risks is in the Izvestia article.

Why is the shutdown dragging on in the United States?

For the 11th time in recent weeks, the U.S. Senate has failed to approve legislation to fund the federal government. As a result, the shutdown that began on October 1 risks dragging on for almost three weeks and has a real chance of approaching the previous record in 2019, when the government stopped its work for 35 days.

This time, the document received 50 votes in favor with the required 60. At the same time, 52 senators had previously approved the bill, meaning Republicans had only moved away from trying to win over some of the Democrats. This situation indicates a deep political impasse and a split in which both parties and the White House find themselves.

On November 21, Donald Trump expressed the hope that the shutdown should end very soon. "We hope that the Democrats will become less insane, and that we will receive votes pretty soon," the US president said. Kevin Hassett, head of the White House National Economic Council, expressed the same point of view, allowing the shutdown to end this week.

At the same time, the Democrats do not plan to give up, hoping to put all the problems for the outbreak of the shutdown on Trump's shoulders, American scholar Malek Dudakov told Izvestia. In their opinion, the prolonged suspension of funding for government agencies and social programs should force the head of the White House to make concessions. The head of the Ministry of Finance, Scott Bessent, announced at the Invest in America forum on October 15: the country's economy is losing up to $15 billion daily due to the ongoing shutdown.

— A large number of federal agencies are already being deprived of funding. For example, the federal courts and the Supreme Court are already running out of money, so they won't be able to operate in full. The same applies to various social programs, as well as air transportation costs, which is why we are already experiencing disruptions in air traffic at major American transport and logistics hubs in Miami and Florida. All this will put pressure on Trump in the context of getting him to make some kind of deal on the budget issue," the political scientist believes.

Due to the shutdown, hundreds of thousands of officials have been on unpaid leave since October 1. It recently became known that the US Department of Energy has temporarily suspended employees of the National Nuclear Safety Administration. Earlier, the head of the department, Chris Wright, stated that due to the prolonged shutdown of the government, they were running out of money to maintain the safety of nuclear stocks.

At the same time, the reason for the shutdown was the disagreement between Democrats and Republicans in the field of healthcare — the parties disagreed on the issue of government spending on health insurance. Democrats are demanding $350 billion to extend subsidies for the Obamacare program, which expires at the end of this year. They also want to cancel the $1 trillion cut in spending on the federal Medicaid program, which pays for medical expenses for the poor, the disabled and other socially vulnerable people. Republicans oppose such spending.

So far, Trump has managed to extinguish internal divisions in the party and concerns about falling ratings amid the shutdown, but as tensions rise due to difficulties with military salaries and the scandal surrounding the investigation of crimes by J. P. Morgan. According to Epstein, it will become more and more difficult to do this, Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor at the MGIMO Department of Political Theory at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia.

— It is more likely that some Republican senators will be the first to falter and will more actively seek deals with Democrats. The latter, in turn, have not proposed any positive agenda and are simply trying to use their discontent against the Trump administration to the maximum. Their goal is to delay the shutdown," the expert said.

The leader of the Democrats in the Senate, Chuck Schumer, said that if the Republicans do not change their position, they will be responsible for the rapid increase in health care costs, due to which some people will have to completely abandon health insurance.

What other issues expose the split within the United States

Meanwhile, on October 18, mass protests under the slogan No Kings took place in all American states, as well as in Washington, which were attended by about 7 million people. These events have become more widespread than the anti-war protests of the early noughties against the actions in Iraq, recalls Malek Dudakov.

However, this time the Americans came out with anti-government slogans with completely different demands. Among them are pro—Palestinian activists critical of Israel, officials dismissed due to the shutdown, eco-activists, feminists, representatives of the BLM and others. At the same time, such actions will not be able to influence the policy of Trump, who will completely ignore their slogans, Dudakov is sure. Due to the fact that the protesters do not have a single alternative agenda, their voices will not be heard, Ivan Loshkarev agrees.

— Their indignation is emotional, not rational. Just words about dignity in politics, about the struggle for democracy and for all good things. While there is no clear and reasonable alternative, the Trump administration has nothing to worry about.

And although Saturday's protests against the president's policies were peaceful, the risks of political violence in the United States have not gone away. This was most acutely reflected in the recent murder of Conservative activist Charlie Kirk. However, the topic recently escalated again when the US Secret Service discovered a suspicious hunting tower in direct line of sight from Trump's exit from Air Force One at Palm Beach Airport. It could have been installed several months ago, the Fox News channel reported, citing a law enforcement source.

This happened a few weeks after shooter Ryan Routh was accused of attempting to assassinate Trump with sniper fire from a hiding place at a golf course in Palm Beach. In total, two attempts were made on the president, but the organizers managed to get away with it, Malek Dudakov recalled.

"If there is a new attempt, it will be a colossal split and discord in American society, which will further move the United States towards civil war," the American expert is sure.

Currently, the US president is guarded by the secret service, where there are enough professionals to ensure the safety of any high-ranking official, Ivan Loshkarev recalled. According to him, the systemic problems were at the level of management and the middle echelon of the service, but they have little effect on the security process itself, which is strictly regulated.