The payment is difficult: the average pension in three years will exceed 30 thousand rubles.

The average insurance pension in Russia will increase by a quarter by 2028 and reach 30 thousand rubles due to indexation, follows from the conclusion of the Accounting Chamber on the draft budget of the Social Fund (Izvestia studied it). At the same time, it will still be four times lower than the salary. The fact is that the average earnings will also grow by a quarter, to 125 thousand. Because of this, the pay—to-salary ratio will be slightly reduced to 23%, which is significantly less than the recommended level of the International Labor Organization — at least 40%. Why the incomes of the elderly do not keep up with salaries and what will help reduce the gap is in the Izvestia article.

How much will pensions grow in Russia

In 2025, the average annual old-age insurance pension will amount to 23.4 thousand rubles. For non—working citizens, who predominate among the recipients of payments, this amount is higher - 24.7 thousand. In the following years, pensions will increase sequentially: in 2026, they will be indexed by 7.6%, and in 2027-2028, two increases are planned: by 4% in February and by 3.4-3.8% in April.

As a result, by 2028, the average pension amount will reach 29.4 thousand rubles, and for non—working citizens - 30.7 thousand rubles. Thus, payments will increase by about a quarter compared to the current level. This is stated in the conclusion of the Accounting Chamber (JV) on the draft budget of the Social Fund, which was reviewed by Izvestia.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Yulia Mayorova

The cost of the pension coefficient (point), which directly affects the size of the insurance pension, will gradually increase. Now it is just over 145 rubles. Over the next three years, the amount will increase to almost 157 rubles in 2026, 169 in 2027 and 182 in 2028, taking into account the double indexation in the last two years.

How will Russians' incomes increase in the coming years

The dynamics of average pensions is directly affected by the forecast for the level of salaries made by the Ministry of Energy, the press service of the Ministry of Labor explained to Izvestia. The department clarified that the amount of the wage fund is directly related to the receipts of insurance premiums, which are used to generate payments.

Photo: Global Look Press/IMAGO/Zoonar.com/Ivan Traimak

In conditions of personnel shortage, salaries, and hence insurance contributions, are growing at a rate higher than inflation, the Ministry of Labor noted. This ensures an increase in average old-age payments.

According to the auditors, based on the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, in 2025 the average salary exceeds 100 thousand rubles. In the next three years, it will grow to 108 thousand, 117 thousand and 125 thousand, respectively. Thus, by 2028, salaries will increase by about a quarter, at the same rate as pensions.

— The increase in salaries is due, among other things, to an increase in the minimum wage, which will increase by 21% from 2026 to 27 thousand rubles, as well as to the high demand for qualified specialists in certain industries. At the same time, there is already a noticeable trend of gradual saturation of the labor market compared to the acute shortage of personnel observed in 2024-2025," explained Yulia Finogenova, Professor of the Department of State and Municipal Finance at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Anna Selina

The dynamics of wages in the future will be influenced by labor productivity, which depends on the speed of modernization of production and the introduction of new technologies, as well as changes in the cost of living, minimum wage and labor market conditions, the expert noted. Pensions, in turn, will be affected by rising incomes and the number of recipients of payments.

Why pensions are four times less than salaries

Although salaries and pensions will grow at a comparable pace in the next three years, the gap between them will remain significant. According to the estimates of the Accounting Chamber, the ratio of the average insurance payment to salary will gradually decrease: in 2026 it will amount to 24.2%, in 2027 - 23.6%, and in 2028 — 23.5%. This means that salaries will be about four times higher than pensions.

Earlier, Izvestia wrote that in Russia, the average size of pensions fell below a quarter of earnings (24%) — 23 thousand rubles against almost 100 thousand. This is the minimum level for the last 17 years.

Age difference: average pension size has dropped below a quarter of salaries

What level is considered optimal by international standards and how to ensure sufficient income in old age

The ratio of the average pension and salary in the Russian Federation is below the recommended level of the International Labor Organization — at least 40%, said Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam. This indicator has a steady downward trend against the background of staff shortages and outstripping salary growth, especially in the last three years.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Sergey Lantyukhov

A payment of 30,000 rubles, despite taking into account the projected price increase, is unlikely to preserve purchasing power, the expert added. She recalled: now the budget provides for low minimum subsistence levels for pensioners — almost 18 thousand in 2028. At the same time, the so-called "inflation for the poor", reflecting an increase in the cost of essential goods and services, is ahead of the general consumer price index, which reduces the effectiveness of official inflation indexing.

"Economic growth and increased labor productivity could become the basis for reviewing the principles of pension formation in order to gradually bring them closer to higher wage ratios,— Olga Belenkaya emphasized.

At the same time, as revenues to the budget and the Social Fund grow, as well as the gradual cooling of the labor market, the ratio of pensions to wages may increase, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global.