Signs of the past: an old conflict has escalated on the Afghan-Pakistani border

The confrontation has escalated on the Afghan-Pakistani border: since September 10, the sides have been exchanging rocket and artillery strikes and attacks on border outposts. The escalation began with the actions of Pakistan, which tried to destroy the leader of one of the anti-government armed groups, who was hiding in Afghanistan. In response, Kabul conducted a "retaliation operation" in which dozens of Pakistani soldiers were killed. The current surge in violence has become another round of the long-standing confrontation between the two countries over territorial disputes, but it is unlikely to escalate into a full-scale war, experts believe.

Escalation at the border

A new phase of tension has entered relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan. It began after the Pakistani military conducted an operation on the territory of a neighboring country on the night of October 10. Fighter jets of the Pakistani Air Force attacked Paktika province, and the car of the leader of the Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) movement became the target of the drone in Kabul Nur Wali Mehsud is right. However, a channel affiliated with the TTP published an audio recording in which he claims to be alive.

The Afghan authorities accused Pakistan of violating the airspace and launching strikes on the border areas. After that, heavy clashes began along the Durand Line, the border between the two countries established back in 1893.

Pakistani media, citing the country's special services, reported that the army had killed dozens of enemy soldiers and captured 19 Afghan border posts from which Pakistan was being shelled.

Later, the Afghan Ministry of Defense announced the successful completion of the "retaliation operation." A spokesman for the country's supreme leader, Zabiullah Mujahid, said 58 Pakistani soldiers were killed in the fighting and 30 others were injured. According to him, Pakistan is "turning a blind eye" to the presence in the region of Islamic State militants (a terrorist organization banned in Russia), who, according to the Afghan side, are creating new centers in the Pakistani province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan have historically been extremely complicated, Alexey Kupriyanov, head of the Indian Ocean Region Center, explained to Izvestia. The key factor is the colonial "Durand line", drawn through the Pashtun ethnic group, which Afghanistan still does not recognize as an official border.

According to Kupriyanov, disagreements on the border existed for almost the entire period of the two countries' coexistence. They were temporarily lifted after the Taliban came to power in 1996 with the support of Pakistan, but after the fall of the regime, the conflicts resumed.

— The new Taliban government, claiming to be a national government, also advocates a revision of the border. Pakistan, in turn, accuses the Afghan government of supporting the militants of the Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan movement operating in northwestern Pakistan, the expert told Izvestia.

Islamabad is also concerned about the rapprochement of Afghanistan with India, which in the future may create a threat of conflict on two fronts, the expert added.

The current conflict has become another round of confrontation, which has been going on with varying degrees of intensity since March 2024. According to Kupriyanov, it is likely to develop in the traditional format — shelling, attacks on border posts and terrorist acts.

Chain action: what is the danger of the conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan

The confrontation may escalate the situation in the region, especially against the background of the escalation of relations between Islamabad and New Delhi.

According to Vladimir Sotnikov, an Oriental political scientist and expert on South Asia, the situation on the border is actually not as serious as it might seem at first glance. Despite the clashes in several provinces and the flights of Pakistani drones, the parties are simultaneously trying to negotiate, he said in an interview with Izvestia.

Fighting on the border has been occurring regularly over the past few years, but in the end the parties usually come to an agreement on their cessation, he said. At the same time, according to Sotnikov, there is no reason to believe that the current escalation could be a prelude to a major war between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Afghan-Pakistani relations

Relations between the neighboring countries have worsened amid increased attacks by Baloch separatist TTP militants on the western provinces of Pakistan.

The representative of the Pakistani Ministry of Defense, Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, noted that Afghanistan has become a haven for Pakistani militants and separatists, and warned that Kabul must control terrorist groups on its territory. According to him, since the withdrawal of Western troops from Afghanistan and the Taliban came to power, about 900 soldiers have died in Pakistan in the fight against the insurgency.

Vladimir Sotnikov also drew attention to the social aspect of the conflict. Pakistan has been expelling Afghan refugees for a long time, which does not suit Kabul, and this generates periodic conflicts.

"The migrants sent by Pakistan often represent marginal or criminal elements, and the Taliban government is not interested in their permanent stay, as it is fighting crime and drug trafficking," the expert noted.

The political scientist added that the Afghan army is significantly inferior to the Pakistani army in terms of armament. Afghanistan has a small number of American helicopters and other equipment, as well as small arms left over even from the time when the Soviet army was in the country, but this is not enough to effectively repel the attacks of the Pakistani Armed Forces and the Air Force. Sotnikov stressed that Pakistan has not yet deployed its heavy weapons and combat aircraft, which also limits the scale of the conflict.

The Afghan side takes these restrictions into account and, most likely, in the near future the parties will reach an agreement on the cessation of active hostilities.

The border drawn at the end of the 19th century during the withdrawal of British colonial forces remains artificial, and the Pashtun factor continues to play a key role in tensions between the countries, said Georgy Asatryan, Deputy director of the Center for the Institute of Military Economics and Strategy at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council.

According to him, Islamabad is striving to maintain its influence on Kabul, while the Taliban, after defeating the United States and NATO in 2021, are trying to build an independent political system and limit the influence of the Pakistani military. Asatryan stressed that the Pakistani Taliban pose a tangible threat to Pakistan, but this is only part of a broader conflict.

— The Pakistani military itself is in close contact with other extremist groups and uses them for its own purposes. The issue is Pakistan's ambitions and desire to maintain control over Kabul. The Taliban don't want that. Therefore, a low—intensity conflict will flare up again and again," the expert said.

In the past, Pakistan hoped that the support of the Afghan Taliban would strengthen security along the 2,600-kilometer-long common border. However, since the Taliban came to power, tensions have only increased. Chaudhry also accused India of using Afghanistan to support the TTP and Baloch separatists, which, in his opinion, destabilizes Pakistan.

The Pakistani army has already stated that it has eliminated more than 1.3 thousand militants since the beginning of the year, and the number of TTP militants operating from Afghanistan is estimated at 6 thousand people. According to the Pakistani authorities, their activity is fueled by the remnants of NATO weapons and the release of hundreds of prisoners from Afghan prisons. The further development of the conflict will depend on Kabul's willingness to control terrorist groups on its territory.