Military inaction: Israel and Hamas have taken the first step towards a settlement

On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip in Sharm el-Sheikh, which was the first step towards implementing Donald Trump's peace plan. The mediators are optimistic: the Egyptian president, who attended the signing ceremony, noted that the agreement on Gas "will give the peoples of the Middle East hope for a stable future." However, according to experts, it is too early to celebrate the triumph. In their opinion, radical individuals in the Israeli government may try to disrupt the further negotiation process. At the same time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may lose the momentum to maintain a constructive dialogue with the Palestinian side after the hostages are returned.

Cessation of hostilities

US President Donald Trump was the first to officially share the news about reaching a compromise. He said that the Palestinian movement and Israeli negotiators had reached a deal. "This means that all hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw its troops to the agreed line as the first steps towards a strong, lasting and eternal peace," Trump wrote on the Truth Social network.

At noon on October 9, the parties agreed on the first phase of the conflict settlement plan. The agreement was based on the "48 for 2000" formula proposed by Trump. The Palestinian side has pledged to release 48 hostages in exchange for 250 Palestinians sentenced to life. The exchange fund also includes about 1,700 residents of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank of the Jordan River who have been arrested since October 2023.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that over the next 24 hours, the IDF will cease military activity in Gaza and withdraw forces to a pre-agreed line (outside residential areas), and then (within the next 72 hours) hostages and prisoners will be exchanged. A member of the Hamas politburo confirmed that the movement had received assurances from mediators, including the United States, that the Israelis would not use the truce to regroup and then resume hostilities.

"This document will give hope for a just and stable future to all the peoples of the region," said Abdel Fattah el—Sisi, President of Egypt, where the negotiation process began earlier this week.

Russia welcomed the progress in the negotiations. As Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted the other day, the US president's plan to resolve the situation in the Gaza Strip is the best thing on the table right now. Moreover, it looks realistic if it is accepted by the Palestinians. Later, Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, continued this idea, saying that the Kremlin supports the agreement of the parties regarding the first phase of the deal. In addition, it is worth noting that Maxim Kharkin, a native of Donbass, remains in captivity. According to available information, he is listed as alive. And making a deal paves the way for his speedy release.

The ratio of "1 to 48" imposed by the White House on West Jerusalem, at first glance, looks like a losing one. However, if we compare it with the January exchange (87 Palestinians for every Israeli) or with the "Shalit Deal" of 2011 (when the Israeli side released more than a thousand people for the return of IDF Sergeant Gilad Shalit), the situation was favorable for the Israelis. Moreover, all the symbolic demands of the Palestinians – including the release of influential warlords (for example, Marwan Barghouti) and the transfer of fighters from the elite Nuhba unit – were rejected by them.

The request for the transfer of the bodies of the former leaders of the movement in Gaza, the brothers Mohammed and Yahya Sinwar, to Hamas was also ignored. However, there is a high probability that behind-the-scenes bidding continues, and Israel will decide to return the remains of the leaders by reducing the number of released prisoners. Now we can talk about the extremely high degree of interest of all parties involved in concluding an agreement as soon as possible, albeit in a truncated form, Grigory Lukyanov, an employee of the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, tells Izvestia.

— Each of the parties, including the mediators, hopes to reduce the impact of turbulence, which makes the conflict a poorly predictable factor in destabilizing not only the Middle East region, but also a significant segment of the global economy and global security. In addition, all the participants and sponsors of the agreement, without exception, intend to present it in the most advantageous light as a fateful historical event, even if it is not in reality, and use the resulting effect to achieve their own, mainly domestic political goals," the orientalist emphasized.

When to expect the second stage of the transaction

The hostage exchange is only the first stage of the settlement plan. And the simplest one. After the procedure is completed, the parties will have to discuss the post-war structure of the exclave.

And here the mutual "red lines" begin. The Palestinian movement is not ready for disarmament, but is determined to maintain its influence on the political life of the post-war Gaza Strip. For Israelis, this is unacceptable: the Jewish state is convinced that the continued influence of Hamas (even if residual) in the Gaza Strip will increase the chances of a repeat of the crisis.

As the INF program manager Ivan Bocharov notes in this context, the negotiating framework created by the parties does not inspire optimism.

— Even the first phase of the peace plan can be disrupted. Not to mention that fundamental issues have not been resolved, including the question of who will govern the Gaza Strip after the end of hostilities. The risk of a breakdown of the agreements is possible due to both unintended and controlled escalation," he points out.

Iraqi expert Safaa al-Assam holds a similar position.

"Even if the parties come to temporary agreements on the exchange of hostages or a partial withdrawal of troops, the lack of a clear mechanism for arms control and guarantees of non—resumption of hostilities may lead to a breakdown of the agreements at an early stage," the expert told Izvestia.

According to him, Washington is extremely interested in the successful completion of the deal between Israel and Hamas. In his opinion, the US position was significantly influenced by the activation of regional players — Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, which have intensified mediation efforts in recent weeks.

However, the continued stability of the peace plan does not give rise to a sense of confidence, since the request for the continuation of the military campaign in Gaza remains from part of the Israeli establishment.

— Given that there are conflicting reports from Hamas about the extent to which it is ready to agree to the implementation of Trump's "20 points," it is likely that with the permission of the White House, Netanyahu, after the release of the hostages — the main demand that the opposition made to him — will lose the incentive to continue negotiations, while the position is to wage war until complete The goal of destroying Hamas may be to raise the bayonet again," Alexei Yurk, a researcher at the Department of Foreign Policy Studies at the Arbatov Institute of the USA and Canada, told Izvestia.

According to Grigory Lukyanov, the main source of short- and medium-term risks to the ceasefire regime will be the ability or inability of the contracting parties to keep the radicals and irreconcilable supporters of the war under control until the victorious end in their camp. In the case of Hamas, whose most notorious military and political leaders were previously physically eliminated, and the new radicals have not yet gained weight and strength, the situation now seems even more understandable and predictable.

On the contrary, the situation in Israel remains uncertain. Netanyahu's dependence on coalition partners in the person of extreme supporters of the war and opponents of any agreements not only with Hamas, but also with the Palestinians as such, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, remains significant. Previously, it has repeatedly caused the Israeli side to disrupt agreements reached even with the highest level of mediation and guarantees. The settlement movement behind them, unlike the supporters of the war in the ranks of Hamas, has increased its influence on Israeli politics, and therefore has become a systemic factor that cannot be ignored, the expert concluded.