End of ties: how the political split in the United States is delaying the shutdown

Budget battles in the United States continue to flare up: Republicans and Democrats have been unable to agree on financing the government for a week. The prolonged shutdown led to flight disruptions at a number of airports and made life difficult for millions of Americans who lost their salaries. Many will have to look for temporary work or ask for a mortgage deferral. Experts emphasize that the "budget wars", at the same time hitting Donald Trump's rating, have become just one manifestation of the political split in the United States. Amid budget problems, the state of Illinois, where Trump deployed National Guard troops to combat illegal migration, sued the White House. The consequences of the shutdown and why the parties cannot come to an agreement are described in the Izvestia article.

Why Republicans and Democrats can't find a compromise

On October 6, the US Senate again failed to pass the budget for the coming year, which is why the shutdown risks dragging on for more than a week. The government suspended its work on October 1 at 0:01 a.m. Eastern time. The Democrats, being in the opposition minority, blocked the temporary financing project for the fifth time. Even during the preliminary voting, the Republicans failed to get the necessary 60 votes: 52 in favor and 42 against. At the same time, three Democratic senators did not support the party's position, and Republican Rand Paul spoke out against the budget.

"After five unsuccessful votes, Republicans must understand that they will not be able to move on until we reach a bipartisan agreement to address the health crisis," Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said after another vote.

Donald Trump announced new negotiations with the Democrats, which, in his opinion, can lead to good results. It should be recalled that this time the healthcare sector turned out to be a stumbling block when discussing the budget — the parties disagreed on the issue of government spending on health insurance. Democrats are demanding $350 billion to extend subsidies for the Obamacare program, which expires at the end of this year. They also want to cancel the $1 trillion cut in spending on the federal Medicaid program, which pays for medical expenses for the poor, the disabled and other socially vulnerable people.

At the same time, Chuck Schumer denied information about negotiations with Trump, and the leader of the Democrats in the House of Representatives, Hakim Jeffries, said that the White House "remains silent" after meeting with the president last week. Now it seems that the Democrats' positions are weaker because they do not control any of the chambers of Congress and the White House, American scholar Malek Dudakov told Izvestia.

— The Trump administration believes that they [the Democrats] do not have any mandate from the population to continue to block the adoption of the new budget. Another thing is that the Democrats are not responsible for anything, so the situation with the shutdown does not affect their ratings. Rather, it is a risk for the current government and the Republicans," the expert believes.

All the economic costs of the current government shutdown are hitting Donald Trump's ratings, agrees Lev Sokolshchik, a researcher at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.

— The negative economic dynamics primarily affects the ruling party. This is especially important ahead of the midterm congressional elections next year. I don't think this can have an impact, but for sure, if there are any serious consequences, the Democrats will not fail to take advantage of this and accuse the Republicans of delaying and not compromising on time," he told Izvestia.

Indeed, according to the latest Ipsos poll, Donald Trump's rating has dropped to 40%. The Harvard CAPS-Harris poll also showed that 53% of Americans hold Republicans responsible for the government shutdown, while 47% blame Democrats. In 2019, the strike of air traffic controllers that began due to the shutdown forced Trump to make concessions and still accept the budget that the Democrats imposed on him, recalls Malek Dudakov. However, this time the head of the White House will try to avoid this scenario and insist on his own, the American expert believes.

The situation of political division and polarization of society makes it very difficult for both parties to reach a compromise. Republicans and Democrats are very far from each other on key issues of the political agenda, Lev Sokolshchik notes. "Taking a step towards an opponent, who is often called an enemy, turns out to be very risky, and in this situation it is difficult for the parties to come to some kind of mutual solutions," the expert says.

The US political divide is taking place on all the most important topics and, above all, on the issue of illegal migration. Budget battles are unfolding against the backdrop of a clash between the federal center and democratic states. In particular, on October 6, Illinois and the city of Chicago sued the Trump administration after its decision to send 300 National Guard soldiers to the state. The White House made this decision "against the background of ongoing violent riots and lawlessness, which the local authorities refuse to stop."

"Our research, which we published last year, clearly shows that the issue of immigration policy and especially illegal emigration is one of the most polarizing socio—political issues in the United States," says Sokolshchik.

Such a policy by Trump, who is expanding military police operations in the United States to combat illegal immigrants and crime, further hardens the position of the Democrats. "Both sides are stuck in a clinch, the split of America is getting worse, and so far there is no compromise," believes Malek Dudakov. Therefore, if a compromise on the budget cannot be reached before the beginning of next week, then everything may take a long time. It is possible that in terms of duration, it may beat the previous record of 2019, when the government stopped its work for 35 days.

How much damage is the shutdown doing to Americans and the economy

The suspension of government work, as a rule, has a number of negative consequences. First of all, millions of officials go on unpaid leave and lose their salaries. From October 1, up to 4 million civil servants may be left without pay, ABC News previously reported. For example, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services will send 41% of its employees on forced leave. The worst of all are air traffic controllers, law enforcement officers and 2 million military personnel who will have to work for free. However, according to the law passed in 2019, civil servants are retroactively paid for all the days of the shutdown. In other words, full—time employees of federal government agencies will receive their salaries, but contract, freelance, and outsourced employees will not.

Thus, millions of Americans found themselves in a difficult situation. Some workers who live paycheck to paycheck may be looking for temporary work or asking for a delay in mortgage payments, Jim Jatras, an ex-adviser to the Republican Party, told Izvestia. "Employees who have money in bank accounts are less worried because they know that sooner or later they will get into debt," he adds.

Due to the lack of staff, small businesses and individuals will not be able to obtain loans, which exacerbates the already difficult economic situation. In addition, the issuance of federal loans for housing construction will stop. Another unpleasant consequence of the shutdown is the closure of national parks or the unavailability of basic services on their territory.

The US government shutdown will cost GDP $15 billion per week, Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, warned. According to the EY-Parthenon analysis, the decline in GDP will be caused by lower salaries for federal employees who have been sent on unpaid leave, delays in government purchases of goods and services, and, as a result, lower final demand.

"If the president decides that the negotiations are not going anywhere, then the cuts [of officials] will begin, but everyone hopes that from Monday we will have a new beginning, the Democrats will see that common sense is to avoid cuts, losses to GDP of $ 15 billion a week if the government stops," Kevin Hassett said..

Trump has publicly stated that the White House intends to take advantage of the situation by launching a mass dismissal of officials. He called the shutdown an "unprecedented opportunity" to reduce agency staffing and said he intended to discuss with Russell Vaught, director of the White House Office of Administrative and Budgetary Policy, "which of the many Democratic agencies" should be cut.

On the other hand, with the government shutdown, the Democrats also found themselves in a convenient situation where they can impose their interests on opponents and lower their ratings, Lev Sokolshchik is sure. At the same time, neither side is interested in the shutdown continuing "indefinitely," because it hits the economy quite hard.

The United States will have to reduce air traffic in the country due to a shortage of 2,000 air traffic controllers, said the Minister of Transportation, acting director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Sean Duffy.

— If we don't have [enough] controllers, we will have to take care of the safety of the airspace. We will slow down or stop the [air] service," he said.

Disruptions have already affected airports in the Los Angeles, Newark and Denver areas. It is possible that the aggravation of negative effects in various sectors of the economy and pressure from dismissed and furloughed Americans will force Republicans and Democrats to find a compromise. The current situation is well characterized by the so—called chicken game model from game theory, political analyst Alexei Chernyaev told Izvestia. It describes a conflict where two players move towards each other, risking a collision — while neither of them wants to give in.