Invaluable contribution: gold may rise in price by 10% to $4,300 per ounce

By the end of 2025, the price of gold could jump by about 10%, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. On October 7, it cost about $3,957 per ounce. At the same time, precious metal futures have updated the historical record, exceeding $ 4,000. Demand growth is observed against the background of difficulties in geopolitics and the suspension of the work of the US government for the first time in almost seven years due to the fact that Congress could not pass a budget for the new fiscal year. What will happen to gold next and investments in which assets may be the most profitable — in the material of Izvestia.

Gold prices in 2025: forecast

December gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) updated their historical record on October 7, reaching $4000.1 per ounce. Then they decreased slightly and at 2:30 p.m. they were already worth $3,984, while the cost of the precious metal itself was $3,957.

However, by the end of the year, the price of precious metals can rise significantly. On average, gold may cost about $4,300 per ounce in December 2025, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. This is almost 10% more than on October 7.

Due to the volatility of the market, it is now difficult to accurately predict the price, says Mikhail Gordienko, Associate Professor of Finance for Sustainable Development at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. In the medium term, it may rise to $4,500, but a decline to $3,500 is possible, as the current levels are higher than the fundamental ones, the expert added.

Why is gold getting more expensive

Gold prices are influenced by both the geopolitical situation and the situation within individual states. In particular, in the United States, on October 1, the government was suspended (shutdown) due to the fact that Congress was unable to adopt a budget for the new fiscal year.

As Alexander Schneiderman, head of Alfa-Forex's customer support and sales department, noted, the longer the contradictions in the highest echelons of power are not resolved, the more the American economy loses. In turn, the head of the White House National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, warned on October 5 that if the government shutdown continues, massive cuts and losses to GDP of $15 billion per week are possible.

The shutdown in the United States has become only an addition to those factors that affect the growth of gold prices, says Vitaly Manzhos, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments. This is demand from central banks and private investors, as well as an increase in the share of key precious metals in the gold and foreign exchange reserves of a number of countries, he believes.

In addition, precious metal prices are rising in anticipation of further easing of the Fed's policy. About 97% of market participants admit a scenario in which the rate will be lowered to the levels of 3.75-4.00%, Alexander Schneiderman recalled. At the last meeting on September 17, the American regulator lowered the discount rate by 25 bps to 4-4.25% per annum. The next decision is scheduled for October 29.

— Global investors traditionally consider gold to be a "safe haven" in times of instability. If the U.S. economy is in doubt, people quickly switch to gold to protect their funds," said Olga Gogaladze, an expert on financial markets.

However, not only is the United States not quite stable right now, certain crises are also occurring in other countries, said Kirill Seleznev, an expert on the Garda Capital stock market. The government changed in France, which caused a wave of protests and concern in European markets, recalled Alexey Lossan, an analyst at the financial marketplace Compare. In Japan, the prime minister also resigned amid falling cabinet ratings and a slowing economy. In this case, gold fulfills the traditional role of a safe haven, Kirill Seleznev added.

What to invest in in 2025

Gold is considered a means of preserving capital and protecting against inflation, notes Vitaly Manzhos from BCS World of Investments. But this advantage shows up in the long run. For example, since the beginning of the year, gold futures have increased by 50%, while bitcoin has increased by only 27%, and the government bond index has increased by about 17%. At the same time, the Moscow Exchange index decreased by almost 2%, and the dollar — by 26%.

Nevertheless, it is most profitable now to buy bonds from high-quality Russian issuers, including replacement Eurobonds, independent expert Andrey Barkhota believes. According to the economist, they can show a yield of 20-26% in annual terms. In terms of three incomplete months until the end of the year, this amounts to about 5%, Vitaly Manzhos added.

The cash currency may show growth of 12-18% by the end of the year. The profitability of ruble deposits will not exceed 16%, and in quarterly terms — 4%, Andrei Barkhota believes.

— Buying gold, as well as buying real estate, is a long—term and strategic investment. As a rule, such investments do not bring a quick and guaranteed income. Moreover, over the horizon of three to nine months, investments in gold may turn out to be less profitable than investments in risk-free assets: deposits and OFZs," he added.

It is not safe to purchase precious metals for a period of less than a year, said Vitaly Manzhos. This asset has risen in price over the past couple of years, and it looks overheated in the medium term. Therefore, from a technical point of view, gold prices are not protected from a rather deep corrective decline in the region of $ 3,600 and below.