Cut down the Lecture hall: the resignation of the next government leads France into a dead end

France cannot get out of the political crisis: Prime Minister Sebastian Lecorny has resigned after less than a month in office. Since the beginning of the presidency of Emmanuel Macron, this is the seventh head of government to lose his post. A few days earlier, the "heavyweight" Bruno Le Maire was appointed head of the country's defense ministry, and former Industry Minister Roland Lescure was appointed head of the Finance Ministry. It was assumed that their appointment would allow a conflicting draft budget to be passed through parliament, where social spending would be cut in favor of preserving the military. Now those plans have gone to waste. At the same time, Macron tightened his foreign policy rhetoric, in particular, he announced a course to block ships with Russian oil. Whether there is a way out of the political impasse and whether the resignation of the Prime Minister will affect the politics of Paris is in the Izvestia article.

Why did Lecorgne resign

Sebastien Lecornu submitted his resignation from the post of Prime Minister less than a month after his appointment. He stated that the parliament does not create the necessary conditions for the work of the head of government.

Lecorny was trying to complete the work of his predecessor in this post, Francois Bayrou. He wanted to pass through parliament a draft budget for 2026, in which social spending was cut in order to reduce the deficit. Bayrou tried to reduce pension indexation and cancel a number of public holidays, but at the same time keep spending on the army at the same level. The Parliament did not appreciate this approach to solving the problem. Bayrou initiated a vote of confidence in the government, successfully lost it and resigned.

The appointment of Lecorny, as one of the people closest to Macron, was seen as an attempt to solve the problem with the draft budget. He has been a member of the government since 2017, and has served as Minister of Defense since 2022. In 2023, he even managed to convince parliament to increase spending on the army to 68.7 billion euros by 2030.

Lecorny has traditionally been closer to the right-wing forces, so it was expected that he would be able to reach an agreement with them during the discussion of the bill. However, it didn't work out.

The resignation 27 days after the appointment is an unprecedented event for France, political analyst Maria Frolova said in a conversation with Izvestia. According to her, the main reason was the acute political crisis surrounding the formation of a stable parliamentary majority.

Lecorny failed to gain parliamentary support. The most controversial issue was the composition of his government, which has not undergone significant changes, which was seen as a rejection of real reforms.

— As for the ill-fated draft budget, it was under serious threat. He did not receive support in parliament, given the heated debate about reducing social spending and raising taxes for the rich," the expert noted.

According to Sergey Fedorov, a leading researcher at the Department of Social and Political Research at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the resignation is due to the fact that Lekorn failed to get the approval of the first government, which began to be announced yesterday.

— The new prime minister had no choice but to ask for his resignation. The reasons for the crisis are the configuration of the lower house of the French parliament, where extremely polar political forces are represented. Basically, these are the extreme right and the extreme left, which make up the majority, and between them is a relatively small centrist bloc of Macron," the expert explained.

Who was supposed to join the Lecorny government

Bruno Le Maire was supposed to head the defense department for a reason. He is a key figure in the economic bloc under Macron, and held this post from 2017 to 2024. With this appointment, the French leader tried to combine budget policy and defense procurement in the hands of an experienced person. Le Maire had to accelerate the implementation of weapons programs, synchronize the military-industrial complex with industrial policy and keep the budget deficit within certain limits.

At the same time, former Minister Delegate for Industry and Energy Roland Lescure was appointed Head of Economics and Finance. According to media reports, he is a "friend" for Macronists and an acceptable interlocutor for leftists in parliament. His task was to solve the main problem — the same budget for 2026.

Thus, Le Maire should optimize military spending, and Lescure adjust the budget so as not to disrupt the acceleration of the military-industrial complex. However, now this structure is in the past, as this government will have to resign.

— I do not know how Macron will get out of this situation. Because whoever he appoints [as the next prime minister] will have his fate hanging in the balance. The opposition demands a revision of the pension reform and other compromises that the president does not want to make," Fedorov said.

According to him, the Fifth Republic has reached a dead end. In the last week, the first appointments of ministers to the largest posts began and only half of the government was announced, but before it was born, this government had already ceased to exist, the political scientist emphasized.

Financial losses for the eurozone

At the same time, Paris' position in Europe may be shaken. Instability in domestic politics is causing the OAT-Bund spread to grow, which is the difference between the value of French and German government bonds. This will bring additional revenue to France's creditors, and Paris' debt servicing costs will increase accordingly.

Due to rising yields on new French bonds, prices for the rest may go down. Banks that have a lot of these securities will record drawdowns in their portfolios and, as a result, a possible drop in the value of their own shares. As a result, some investors may withdraw from euro assets altogether.

The problems may spread to the eurozone: the rising cost of borrowing in such a large economy as France can affect the value of the euro. It will become more expensive for banks to attract resources, and loan rates for businesses and individuals will increase accordingly. Thus, until Paris deals with the draft budget, the eurozone may be threatened by a cooling economy.

The country's budget deficit in 2024 amounted to 5.8% of GDP, and in 2025 it will be only slightly less. This is almost twice the 3% allowed in the EU. The delay in the adoption of the budget, where the current figure will decrease to a more acceptable level, will complicate the dialogue with the European Commission on excessive deficit procedures.

Paris' actions in the international arena

In the context of the domestic political crisis, Macron is trying to demonstrate a tougher foreign policy. The tanker Boracay, which was sailing from Primorsk, was recently detained in neutral waters. The French security forces were allegedly looking for drones that could be launched from it, but after checking the vessel was allowed to continue its course.

Later, the French president publicly linked the detention of the vessel to a new European strategy to put pressure on Russia's "shadow fleet" in order to reduce Moscow's oil revenues.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the detention of the vessel was piracy and an attempt to divert the attention of French citizens from solving real internal problems. The Russian Foreign Ministry has repeatedly accused Paris of provocations and increasing defense spending under the pretext of an imaginary threat from Russia.

The detention of ships may continue, French political analyst Nicholas Mirkovich said in an interview with Izvestia. According to him, by fighting Russia, Macron is trying to shift the focus from domestic to foreign policy issues.

— The French reproach him that the purchasing power is falling. The key topics — migration, pensions, social sphere, education, healthcare — are not managed or poorly managed. People are waiting for answers," the expert noted.

According to the political scientist, instead of admitting that he failed to cope with the mission of the president, muster the courage and resign, Macron remains in his chair. And in order not to discuss his own failed domestic policy, he prefers to find a convenient "scapegoat" in Russia. Hence the talk about drones and the waste of French time and money on meaningless meetings in search of a "coalition against Russia."

— That's why he sees Russians everywhere - on computer networks, at sea, in the air. These "Russians" are not really there — they are in his head, and he clings to this topic only so as not to talk about his own disastrous policies," Mirkovich said.

Sergei Fedorov also believes that Macron's focus on foreign policy is related to domestic problems. At the same time, it is unknown what strategy the French leader will have in relation to Ukraine.: The activity of the "coalition of the willing" is gradually fading, and it is not known how France, taking into account its financial problems, plans to finance its military-industrial complex.