Prague's auction: will the Czech Republic stop supplying weapons to Ukraine
Parliamentary elections will start in the Czech Republic on October 3. According to polls, the ANO party, led by billionaire and former Prime Minister Andrei Babish, is in the lead. However, he will not get an absolute majority, which means that Prague will face long coalition negotiations. Experts believe that if Babis wins, the Czech Republic may curtail the "shell initiative" and abandon hostile rhetoric against Russia. However, the restoration of relations with Moscow should not be expected, as well as the creation of an alliance of Prague, Budapest and Bratislava. About the electoral situation in the Czech Republic — in the material of Izvestia.
Who will win the elections in the Czech Republic
Voting in the parliamentary elections starts in the Czech Republic on October 3. Over 8 million citizens will be determined by 200 deputies of the lower house. According to opinion polls, the ANO party led by billionaire and former Prime Minister Andrei Babish (he served in 2017-2021) became the leader of the election race. Journalists call him the Czech Trump: Babis came to power under the slogan of overthrowing the old elites, lost the election and can now return to the post of prime minister. The ANO's rating is about 30%, and the party can get 68-70 seats, but a majority requires at least 101 seats.
The government coalition "Together", led by Prime Minister Petr Fiala, is supported by about 20% of respondents. It includes the Civic Democratic Party (ODS), the Christian Democratic Union — Czechoslovak People's Party (KDU-CSL) and the TOP09 party. The ruling coalition has made Russophobic rhetoric its main weapon.
On the eve of the elections, the current authorities escalated: since September 30, the Czech Republic has closed visa centers in the Russian Federation, while Prague has not issued a tourist Schengen to Russians since 2022. On the same day, the Czech Republic banned Russian diplomats and holders of official passports from entering the country without accreditation. Fiala's coalition attracts artists and other celebrities to its anti-Russian agitation, stating that no one will protect the country better than the current government. And Czech President Petr Pavel, who sympathizes with the Cabinet of Ministers, addressed the citizens before the parliamentary elections and called for the election of a government that "will not leave us at the mercy of Russia." This is how he hints that Babish's party is not suitable for this role.
However, neither the ruling coalition nor the ANO is likely to get an absolute majority in parliament. Therefore, the outcome of the elections depends on third parties. The third place is currently occupied by the Freedom and Direct Democracy Movement (SPD) with 13% support. This is a Eurosceptic party that advocates negotiations with Russia. Right behind her are the "Elders and Independents" with 11% of the voters — they, on the contrary, are pro-European. The Pirate Party of the Czech Republic, "Motorists for Themselves" and the left-wing "Enough is Enough!" bloc may also enter parliament.
Andrei Babish's most likely coalition partners are Freedom and Direct Democracy or Enough!, but the second movement is on the verge of entering parliament, Mikhail Vedernikov, a leading researcher at the Central and Eastern Europe Research Department at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia. However, the EU and NATO, as well as President Petr Pavel, probably will not allow the ANO alliance with the SPD because of the latter's tough Eurosceptic position, political analyst Vadim Trukhachev told Izvestia.
— The option of the ANO — "Motorists for Themselves" coalition with the support of the Enough! party without its direct entry into the government is also possible. Or President Pavel, with the support of the European Union and NATO, will impose on Babis such an option that the more moderate Euro-Atlantic movements "Elders and Independents" and the Pirate Party or one of them will join the ANO coalition. For example, the post of foreign Minister may go to representatives of these forces," the expert emphasized.
At the same time, the leadership of the Pirate Party, Starost and Independents, as well as the parties of the ruling coalition Together, have so far rejected the possibility of cooperation with Andrei Babish. "Motorists for themselves" are not ready to work with the communists from "Enough is enough!". Therefore, the leader of the ANO faces difficult negotiations to agree on the composition of the future coalition. By the way, after the elections in 2017, Babish was able to form a stable cabinet only by June 2018.
In its criticism of the current government, ANO is closer to all anti-government parties and groups such as Freedom and Direct Democracy, Enough is Enough! and Motorists. The coalition illegibility of the party scene is very high. The ruling coalition "Together", "Elders and Independents", as well as "Pirates" will not be able to unite. However, everything depends primarily on the results of the smallest opposition parties, which will overcome the five percent barrier. Stanislav Novotny, chairman of the Association of Independent Media and former head of the Czech police, told Izvestia about this.
— Let's not forget about the falsification of the voting results. In this sense, the digital system and mail voting represent a space of significant opportunities," the expert said.
How will relations between Moscow and Prague change
The main difference between this election campaign was the importance of foreign policy, Vadim Trukhachev emphasizes. The opposition said that instead of solving the internal problems in the country, the Fiala government is dealing with Russia and Ukraine. Prague has been actively supporting Kiev since its launch in February 2022. The Czech Republic's total military support to Ukraine amounted to over €1.2 billion, which is much less than other EU members.
However, Prague has not only accepted a large number of Ukrainian refugees, but also supplies Ukraine with ammunition. About 20 countries have joined the Czech initiative, and purchases are carried out, among other things, outside the EU and NATO. In 2024 alone, the Czech initiative helped Ukraine receive 1.5 million shells. Prague regularly supports anti-Russian sanctions, and in April the country also stopped buying oil from Russia via the Druzhba oil pipeline.
This policy is causing growing discontent among Czech citizens. For example, in 2023, major strikes took place in the country against the economic policy of the government, which preferred to spend money on Ukraine rather than on improving the economic situation. In 2024, a survey showed that 59% of Czechs believe that there are too many Ukrainian refugees in their country.
Andrei Babis criticizes the Czech initiative to supply artillery shells to Ukraine, considering them "profitable only for arms dealers." At the same time, the opposition leader did not declare a complete halt to military aid to Kiev. However, in contrast to the irreconcilable position of the Fiala government, the ANO considers it necessary to conduct a dialogue with Russia.
Vadim Trukhachev believes that if Babish wins, he can really cut supplies to Ukraine.
— Probably, the well-known projectile initiative of the Czech Republic is being transformed. Relatively speaking, the Czechs will not directly supply Kiev with shells, but will, relatively speaking, sell them to Denmark and Sweden, and they, in turn, will start supplying Kiev," Mikhail Vedernikov said.
At the same time, Prague's anti-Russian rhetoric will also become more restrained if the ANO wins, and there will be no offensive Russophobic attacks. However, it is not worth waiting for a warming up of political contacts, since Babish was not particularly disposed towards Moscow during his first premiership, Vedernikov stressed. For example, in 2018, in connection with the Skripal case, the Czech authorities expelled three Russian diplomats in solidarity with Britain, and Moscow responded in kind.
At the same time, the Czech Republic will continue to work to strengthen the influence of the West in Serbia and Belarus.
— Prague will actively work both in Belarus and Serbia under any government. This also happened under Presidents Vaclav Klaus and Milos Zeman, who seemed quite loyal to us. Unless the eurosceptics from Freedom and Direct Democracy would not work in this direction," Trukhachev believes.
We can expect a certain change in tone in foreign policy. Andrei Babish would certainly be less confrontational towards Moscow than Peter Fiala. It looks like he could weaken Kiev's financial and military support, Stanislav Novotny said.
At the same time, Andrei Babish, despite the fact that he supports membership in the European Union and NATO, does not intend to blindly follow their instructions. He has a complicated history of relations with the EU. In 2017, the European Anti-Fraud Office accused him of illegally receiving €2 million in union subsidies intended for small businesses. The politician was stripped of parliamentary immunity, but in 2023 the court acquitted him.
With the start of the election campaign in June, the Supreme Court of the Czech Republic sent the case for reconsideration. Andrei Babish himself believes that the investigation is political in nature. However, he cannot be counted among the cohort of Eurosceptic leaders like Robert Fico in Slovakia and Viktor Orban in Hungary. The billionaire is too embedded in Euro-Atlantic structures to become one of the frontrunners.
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