Chicken stories: wholesale prices for broiler carcass increased by a third

Broiler carcasses in wholesale have risen in price by a third. From September 15 to September 21, the average price was 190 rubles per 1 kg, which is 34% more than in the same week a year earlier. This is the maximum since the beginning of the year, according to data from the National Union of Poultry Farmers. Manufacturers attribute the increase in wholesale prices to an increase in demand and the consumer's desire to save money. Whether wholesale prices will affect retail is in the Izvestia article.

How much has the price of the broiler increased?

The average wholesale price of a broiler chicken carcass at week 38 (from September 15 to September 21) was 190 rubles per 1 kg, which is 34% more than in the same period a year earlier. This is stated in the materials of the National Union of Poultry Farmers (NSP), which unites companies that produce more than 60% of Russian poultry. Izvestia has reviewed the document.

The cost of a carcass has reached its maximum since the beginning of the year, according to the NSP data. However, broiler butchering has also increased in price: the average price of chicken fillet over the same period was 320 rubles per 1 kg (+10% year—on-year), chicken wing rose in price by 5%, to 180 rubles per 1 kg, ham - by 12%, to 162 rubles per 1 kg, drumstick and thigh — by 8% and 2%, to 168 and 138 rubles per 1 kg, respectively, follows from the data of the union. Annual inflation as of September 15 (the latest available data) was 8.02%, according to a review by the Ministry of Economic Development.

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The representative of the NSP declined to comment. The Rospticesoyuz did not respond to Izvestia's request.

In mid-July, wholesale prices for chicken meat were already rising, the media reported. So, at the 29th week, the average cost of a broiler carcass was 185 rubles per 1 kg (+18% year-on-year). Mechanical deboning minced meat rose the most — by 40%, to 98 rubles per 1 kg, NTech estimated.

Why is the bird getting more expensive

The rise in prices for broiler meat arose against the background of problems with shipments from large poultry producers, says a source of Izvestia in a large poultry enterprise. The difficulties may be related to epizootics — the spread of diseases among birds, he believes. This is confirmed by two top managers in large agricultural holdings.

At the same time, the Rosselkhoznadzor does not record a surge in the incidence of poultry farms, says its representative. The epizootic situation in the country, according to him, is stable. No cases of avian influenza have been registered at the enterprises of the Ministry of Agriculture this year, its representative confirmed.

The increase in prices for carcass and its parts was the result of a decrease in the rate of livestock increase among producers, said Albert Davleev, president of Agrifood Strategies. This is due to the fact that in the first half of the year, the price of poultry decreased and approached its cost price, he states.

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At the same time, in January – July, the country produced 3.96 million tons of poultry in live weight, which is 3.3% more than in the same period a year earlier, a representative of the Ministry of Agriculture told Izvestia. According to the agency, on September 17, producer prices for chicken meat decreased by 1.4% over the month and averaged 164.5 rubles per 1 kg.

Interruptions in shipments may occur due to the desire of producers to partially compensate for the decline in profits due to low prices for chicken in the first half of the year, a top manager of a large retail chain believes.

Cherkizovo Group is the only public company in this market. In January – June, its revenue amounted to 136.9 billion rubles, which is 9.8% more than in the same period a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA (reflects the company's profit before taxes, interest and depreciation) decreased by 10.8% to 19.8 billion rubles over the same period, while net profit fell by 57% to 6.9 billion rubles, according to the financial statements. The financial results were negatively affected by lower prices for poultry products, rising costs, as well as the high cost of borrowed capital, the group explained in the report.

Representatives of Cherkizovo, Prodo and GAP Resource declined to comment. Miratorg, Agrocomplex named after N.I. Tkachev and Agrosil did not respond to Izvestia's request.

How will rising prices for raw materials affect sausage production

A significant part of the broiler carcass is sold in the wholesale market, it is bought for further cutting or processing at meat processing plants, Albert Davleev draws attention. Minced chicken is used as an alternative to pork for the production of sausages, he points out. According to him, poultry meat is now offsetting the increase in the price of pork half carcasses and ham, which has been observed since the end of July.

Pork ham at the end of August, according to NTech, rose in price by a third compared to the same period a year earlier, Izvestia reported in early September.

The wholesale cost of a broiler carcass at week 38 for meat processors was 186 rubles per 1 kg, which is 24% more than in the same period a year earlier, according to data from the National Union of Meat Processors (NSM). The price of chicken fillet for them increased by 13% over the same period, to 320 rubles per 1 kg.

Rising prices for raw materials are a concern for sausage producers, says a major meat processor. According to him, such a situation can lead to a decrease in the profitability of production and increase the increase in selling prices for products.

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In the first half of the year, the volume of supplies increased by one and a half times.

What does this mean for the consumer

So far, the rise in wholesale prices has not seriously affected retail. According to the NSP, the carcass at the 38th week cost 228.5 rubles per 1 kg (+4.8% year-on-year). The weekly expenses of Russian families on chicken meat increased by 5% over the same period, to 1,097 rubles, according to the union.

Producers and retailers have signed long-term contracts that allow stores to purchase poultry at "old prices," says a top manager at a large agricultural holding.

By mid-September, minimum purchase prices for a broiler carcass increased by 4.4% compared to September 2024, while retail prices decreased by 0.94% over the same period, adds the chairman of the Presidium of the Association of Retail Trade Companies (ACORT) Stanislav Bogdanov. Retail prices remain below purchase prices, he stressed.

But this does not mean that retailers are operating at a loss, says a top manager of a large retail chain. Stores often resort to the "anchor product" strategy, which is placed next to each other for comparison, so that another product looks more profitable. For example, if you put an organic chicken for 399 rubles next to a regular chicken for 179 rubles, then a farm chicken for 239 rubles will seem like the best compromise for the buyer and will sell better, he explains.

Magnit and X5 (Pyaterochka, Chizhik) declined to comment. Representatives of Metro, Globus and Auchan did not respond to the request.

In Lenta, the volume of sales of broiler carcasses in physical terms increased by 6% from January to August, its representative noted. According to him, the purchase prices "have not changed much." At the same time, the average price of poultry meat on the shelf decreased by 2% over the same period, he said.