Non-union position: The EU may slow down Serbia's European integration
Belgrade's reaction to the ongoing unrest may complicate its path to the EU, the European Parliament told Izvestia. Some EP factions are already demanding to put pressure on Serbia to force President Aleksandar Vucic to hold early elections. Earlier, the European Parliament had already adopted resolutions demanding that the country join the sanctions against Russia and establish relations with the self-proclaimed Kosovo. The authorities of the republic announced that they would restore order in the streets where protest actions are continuing. Experts state the same: Belgrade most likely has no chance of joining the EU, since European integration is a tool of Brussels to control the candidate countries.
How the protests affect Serbia's European integration
The actions of the Serbian authorities regarding the protests may slow down the country's accession to the EU, Tomasz Zdechowski, an MEP and member of the European People's Party, told Izvestia. According to him, the European Parliament plans to discuss the political crisis in the republic at its next session, as many deputies are concerned about the current situation.
— The actions of the Serbian authorities during the protests will certainly be taken into account in the context of negotiations on Serbia's accession to the EU. Respect for democracy, freedom of assembly and the rule of law are fundamental values of the European Union, and any violations could slow down or complicate Serbia's path to membership, he said.
Some EU politicians are already openly siding with the protesters in Serbia. For example, the European Green Party, which has 53 seats in the European Parliament, demands to put pressure on Belgrade to hold "new fair elections and an end to police violence." And in the British media — The Guardian and The Financial Times — there are calls to impose sanctions against Alexander Vucic and his entourage.
At the same time, there is another point of view in the European Parliament. Slovakia's MEP Milan Mazurek told Izvestia that if this issue is considered, he will side with the legitimate government of Serbia.
— I strongly reject the so-called color revolutions and any interference in the sovereignty of other countries. We have seen the destabilizing effects of such interference in countries such as the Arab world, Ukraine, and Georgia. Serbia's future should be determined by its own citizens, exclusively through democratic elections, and not through violent riots," the politician said.
Recall that in mid-August, the protests in Serbia became sharply radicalized. The opposition has begun attacking the headquarters of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party, and clashes with police are intensifying. The mass riots and attacks on buildings in Belgrade are an attempt to organize a "color revolution" paid for from outside, Alexander Vucic said.
Recall that this wave of protests in the country began after the tragedy in the city of Novi Sad in November 2024. Then a 50-meter canopy made of concrete, metal and glass collapsed, killing 15 people, including three children. It was after this incident that Serbia plunged, in fact, into a political crisis.
The protests in the republic can really affect the process of its European integration, as they are designed to change Belgrade's foreign policy. Serbia's multi—vector course is now the main obstacle to its accession to the EU, INF program manager Milan Lazovich noted in an interview with Izvestia.
— It is unlikely that the protests will lead to a change in the government of Aleksandar Vucic and Prime Minister Juro Matsuta. This means that an obstacle to Serbia's accession to the EU will remain," the expert said.
The European Parliament has already threatened Serbia to slow down its path to the EU. So, in 2022, the European Parliament adopted a resolution in which it called on Belgrade to immediately join the sanctions against Russia, calling it one of the main conditions for advancing the process of European integration. As you know, Belgrade continues to maintain close ties with Russia, including visa-free travel, direct flights and energy imports.
Serbia will maintain its neutrality in the future, Alexander Vucic said at a meeting with Vladimir Putin in Beijing. The Russian leader noted that Moscow respects the independent foreign policy pursued by Belgrade.
— High-level cooperation with Russia in all areas is very important for Serbia. I hope that there will be an opportunity not only to maintain, but also to strengthen our cooperation," Vucic said.
And in February 2024, MEPs voted in favor of a resolution in which they considered that the parliamentary and local elections in Serbia on December 17, 2023, were "below the expected standards for an EU candidate country." The document says that negotiations on joining the union should move forward only if the country "makes significant progress in its reforms, including full implementation of the recommendations of the OSCE/ODIHR and the Venice Commission."
Brussels interfered in the affairs of other candidates for unification. For example, Tbilisi postponed negotiations on joining the EU until 2028 and refused European budget grants due to the fact that Brussels was against the Georgian law on foreign agents. And after the parliamentary elections in October 2024, the European Parliament adopted a resolution calling for a new vote to be held in the country under international control. The real reason is that Tbilisi defies pressure and is interested in maintaining economic ties with Moscow.
By order of the EU, undesirable political forces are being persecuted in other countries. Thus, in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Milorad Dodik, the President of Republika Srpska (BiH entity), was dismissed from office, who does not support BiH's accession to the European Union. The formal reason was Dodik's non-recognition of the powers of the High Representative for BiH, Christian Schmidt, who, however, was appointed to his post without the approval of the UN Security Council. And in Moldova, the head of Gagauzia, Evgenia Gutsul, was sentenced to a seven-year term. Her region opposes Chisinau's European integration and supports maintaining relations with Russia.
Will Serbia join the EU
Belgrade applied to join the European Union back in 2009, and the country received candidate status in 2012. At the same time, there are no specific dates for the accession of the Balkan republic. Serbia itself hopes that all necessary reforms will be completed by 2026, the country's Foreign Minister Marko Djuric said in February. By the way, five years ago Vucic stated that by 2026 Serbia would become a full member of the EU. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani earlier admitted that Belgrade would join the EU no earlier than 2029.
Economically, Belgrade is already closely linked to the EU: Serbia's main trading partners are Germany and Italy, about 20% of the country's population work in the EU, and in 2023 alone, these people transferred €5 billion to Serbia, more than the amount of foreign direct investment. The Balkan Republic also receives funding from Brussels. For example, in 2020, the EU transferred almost €3 billion from the pre-accession assistance instrument to it.
However, the main obstacles on Serbia's path to the EU are political in nature. In addition to joining the anti-Russian sanctions, Brussels demands to actually recognize the self-proclaimed Kosovo. Belgrade officially considers the region to be its territory within the autonomous province of Kosovo and Metohija.
In July, Serbia completely suspended the ongoing EU-sponsored dialogue with Pristina on normalization of relations after the arrest of Igor Popovich, Deputy head of the Serbian Government's Department for Kosovo Affairs, by the Kosovo authorities. Before that, several crises had already broken out in the region. For example, in 2021, the ban on Serbian license plates in northern Kosovo led to the blocking of roads by the local population. And in 2022, a new conflict arose over Pristina's application to the EU.
Without a break with Russia and recognition of Kosovo, Belgrade's chances of becoming a new member of the European Union tend to zero. But for Brussels, it is not the result that is important, but the process of European integration itself, which makes it possible to keep disputed territories in the field of its geopolitical influence, Daria Moiseeva, candidate of political Sciences, chief analyst at ANO Kolaboratoria, told Izvestia.
— Serbia is one of the countries where the EU's enlargement and Eastern neighborhood policy has been "broken". After a decade of negotiations, Serbia finally received the status of a candidate country for membership in 2012, but it has not approached the Copenhagen criteria since then, and in general, its relations with the EU clearly illustrate the revision of the entire methodology of European integration, the expert noted.
Moiseeva noted that Serbia participates in the EU's conditional instruments (democratic reforms in exchange for money). The newest of them is the Reform and Growth Facility for the Western Balkans. It is in many ways similar to the Ukraine Facility, through which Ukraine's integration into the EU is unfolding.
At the same time, public sentiment is changing in Serbia itself: in 2013, according to the NSPM research group, more than 53% of respondents supported EU membership, while in 2025 39% supported European integration and 43.2% opposed it. MEP Milan Mazurek also believes that Serbia needs to think about whether it benefits from joining the EU in its current course.
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