Key rate 2025: forecast in September, expert opinion

The Bank of Russia will hold a regular meeting on the key interest rate on September 12. In 2025, an important economic indicator decreased twice: in June by 1 percentage point, to 20%, and in July — by 2 percentage points, to 18%. At the end of August, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the high key rate would not last forever. According to him, inflation is decreasing, which means that the country's financial authorities will respond to this "appropriately." Forecasts of what the rate will be by the end of 2025 are in the Izvestia material.

What is the key rate now?

The last meeting of the Central Bank (CBR) was held on July 25, following which the key rate was reduced from 20% to 18%. This was the second decrease in a year: earlier in June, the indicator was reduced from a record 21% by 1 percentage point.

By the end of the year, the Central Bank will hold three more key rate meetings: on September 12, October 24, and December 19.

Commenting on the July decision, the Bank of Russia stated that the main arguments in favor of a 200 bps reduction were the slowdown in annual and monthly inflation in June.

"The Central Bank's forecast for the key rate allows for the possibility of lowering it by 100, 150 and 200 basis points at separate meetings, but pauses are also possible. The decision will depend on the incoming data. There may be a uniform downward trajectory with a more convincing picture of inflation stabilization," said Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Central Bank of Russia, at the time.

Key rate forecasts for September

Ahead of the next meeting of the Central Bank, experts are making predictions about what the bank's decision might be. There is no question of raising the rate, experts say. The main dispute is over how much and how quickly the indicator will be reduced. On September 12, economists mostly forecast a rate cut of 1-2 percentage points.

Anatoly Popov, Deputy Chairman of the Board of Sberbank, said that the Central Bank could reduce the rate to 16% at the next meeting.

"According to analysts at SberCIB Investment Research, at the September 12 meeting, the Central Bank may reduce the key rate by another 200 basis points, to 16 percent, and by the end of the year it may reach 15 percent," he said in an interview with RIA Novosti.

According to Anatoly Popov, Sberbank sees signs of a continued cooling of the economy. And the 18% rate is still quite a high figure, close to historical highs.

VTB allows the option of reducing the rate by 100 bps. First Deputy Chairman of the board Dmitry Pyanov said that on September 12, the Bank of Russia will choose between two options to reduce the key rate — minus 100 or 200 basis points.

Egor Susin, Managing Director of Gazprombank Private, noted that the scenario for a rate cut of 1-2 percentage points remains. According to him, the option that the rate will remain at the current level of 18% or will be reduced by more than 2 percentage points looks less likely.

"The main point is that the planning/budgeting cycle for next year begins in the fall. Overly optimistic hopes for a rate cut in 2026 may create “false” expectations and excessive easing of the monetary policy. At the same time, the current rigidity is high, especially in the main segment of floating—rate debt, which carries risks for the economy," the expert wrote on his Telegram channel.

According to his estimates, the Bank of Russia will lower the rate to 16%.

Vasily Koltashov, an economist and director of the New Society Institute, believes that the rate could reach 12-14% in the fall.

"The question is essentially the same: will the rate cut be fast (by 2-3% based on the results of each meeting) or slow. There is no need for slowness, which means that we probably expect an accelerated rate cut. The authorities also want to support the sale of apartments in new buildings," Vasily Koltashov explained to Rossiyskaya Gazeta, referring to international diplomatic positivity and optimism on the one hand, and the threat of rising hidden unemployment, as well as risks to the economy as a whole, on the other.

What will be affected by the reduction in the key rate?

A 16% rate is still not the best scenario for a business. Experts call the optimal rate at 12%.

With a higher key value, it becomes more difficult for enterprises to maintain financial stability, and this creates a risk of further deterioration in their solvency. Although the high key rate strengthens the ruble, it reduces the competitiveness of Russian goods on international markets. The long-term persistence of high loan rates is holding back economic growth.

Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin, commenting on the company's results for the first half of 2025, said that the pace of reduction in the key rate was "clearly insufficient," but did not name a "comfortable" rate.

A reduction in the key rate may affect all industries. For example, real estate. If the rate drops to 16%, housing on the primary market will fall in price by 5-8%, Ildar Khusainov, director of the Floors real estate agency, told TASS.

"The problem is that developers need to fill out escrow accounts in order to have reduced rates on project financing, while increasing the availability of market mortgages will shift consumer demand for ready-made housing, which over the past few years has become much more affordable than apartments in new buildings," the expert explained.

According to Denis Manturov, the First Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, a rate below 15% will more rhythmically stimulate car sales. This will also affect commercial vehicles, whose market has fallen due to the high key interest rate. Earlier, due to the crisis, Kamaz, GAZ and LiAZ announced the transition to a four-day working week.

In addition, the key rate affects the state budget. Denis Manturov previously reported that reducing the rate by every percentage point saves the budget of the Russian Federation up to 200 billion rubles. subsidiary support.