Tank view: the government expects a gasoline surplus in September
Starting in September, Russia is expected to have a steady surplus of gasoline on the domestic market, which will be facilitated by the completion of repairs at refineries. This information was announced at a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, where measures to stabilize the situation on the fuel market were discussed, a source told Izvestia. Following the discussion, the heads of the regions were recommended to strengthen explanatory work with the population in order to remove the excessive demand for gasoline. The interlocutors of the publication note that oil companies have increased supplies to regions where there is a shortage of fuel. For example, 120 fuel trucks leave for Primorye every day, and there are at least 500 gasoline tanks on the way to Crimea. About what changes to expect in the Russian fuel market in the near future, see the Izvestia article.
Fuel surplus expected in September
The imminent completion of repairs at the refineries will make it possible to create a steady surplus of gasoline volumes on the domestic Russian market starting in September and accumulate balances in case of force majeure. This information was announced at a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on August 25, a source told Izvestia. According to him, the monthly production will amount to 3.4 million tons. The average monthly gasoline consumption in the country this year is 3.18 million tons, said Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing Partner of VMT Consult.
Alexander Novak's meeting was held with the participation of representatives of oil companies and industry regulators. It discussed the provision of fuel for the domestic market. The agenda (Izvestia has it) included, among other things, questions about the implementation by oil companies of the recommendations of the Ministry of Energy on the supply of gasoline to the domestic market and stock exchanges, on the dynamics of retail prices until the end of 2025, taking into account the expected decrease in inflation, on the analysis of the reduction in consumption of diesel fuel in Russia, on the operation of the export ban mechanism gasoline.
According to another Izvestia interlocutor, it was noted at the meeting that Gazprom had restored the plant in Astrakhan, where diesel production would begin on August 30 and gasoline on September 7. According to a source familiar with the meeting, Alexander Novak instructed the regions to "strengthen explanatory work with the population in order to remove the hype."
Following the meeting, the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) was instructed to verify the validity of setting retail prices by independent gas stations in the Far East. The most acute situation is in Primorsky Krai, where the difference between the prices of an Independent Oil and gas Company (NOC, the company also owns the Khabarovsk Refinery) and independent gas stations reaches 20 rubles per liter.
Currently, according to Izvestia's interlocutor, the NOC is maximizing the volume of supplies to the region — more than 120 additional fuel tankers daily. In his opinion, the high demand for gasoline in Russia at the meeting was explained by an increase in tourist traffic and rumors of fuel shortages.
— As a result, there are cases when private traders fill up to 300 liters at a time, filling both tanks and cans, — the source of the publication notes.
Nevertheless, according to him, the situation in Crimea has stabilized. The daily consumption is 57-60 tanks. The day before, 63 tankers arrived on the peninsula and at least 500 more are on the way.
The current situation in the fuel market
Last week, the exchange value of AI-92 and AI-95 exceeded 72 and 82 thousand rubles per ton, respectively. Despite the introduction of a complete ban on gasoline exports from August 1, it rose in price on the stock exchange by 5.9% and 2.8%, respectively. Today, on the eve of the Cabinet meeting, quotations decreased: AI-92 — to 69,844 rubles per ton, AI-95 — to 78,639 rubles.
The average cost of gasoline at domestic gas stations has increased by 5.7% since the beginning of the year, according to Rosstat. This is higher than the national average inflation for the same period, which remains within 4.2%.
A fuel tanker that burned down as a result of shelling by the Ukrainian Armed Forces
The price increase is taking place against the background of repairs to a number of refineries after attacks by Ukrainian drones. Since the beginning of August, the Syzransky, Novokuibyshevsky, Saratov and Volgograd refineries have stopped due to UAV strikes in Russia. The Ryazan plant stopped half of its capacity. The Slavyansk, Afipsky and Novoshakhtinsky oil refineries were also attacked by drones.
According to Reuters calculations, UAV attacks on Russian factories disrupted the operation of at least 17% of oil refining capacities, which amounts to 1.1 million barrels per day. For this reason, the crisis continues with an acute shortage of gasoline in the Russian regions.
In the Kuril region of the Sakhalin region, the sale of AI-92 gasoline was suspended. This was announced by the head of the Kuril region Konstantin Istomin. In order to guarantee the work of emergency and special services, the local administration has imposed restrictions on the sale of fuel to the public — from August 20, no more than 10 liters are available in one hand.
At gas stations in the Crimea, Khabarovsk Territory and Primorye, drivers were forced to stand in queues for hours. Some gas stations completely lack 95-th gasoline.
At a previous meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, which took place on August 14, it was decided to increase gasoline supplies from Belarus and extend the total ban on gasoline exports until the end of September. According to the Izvestia interlocutor, the relevant resolution will be published in the coming days.
As the press service of the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange informed Izvestia, the average daily sales volume at factory bases with rail delivery in August 2025 for 92 gasoline amounted to 22.1 thousand tons, for 95 gasoline - 15.5 thousand tons, which exceeds the same trading volume in July by 2.1% (+0.5 thousand tons) and 5.5% (+0.8 thousand tons), respectively.
Oil workers will change the parameters of the damper
In order to reduce stock prices for fuel, according to Izvestia's interlocutors, it was decided to change the parameters of the damper and allow oil companies to deviate from the indicative price by 15% and 25%.
The damping mechanism was created in 2018 and introduced in January 2019 to curb domestic fuel prices. If the export price of gasoline and diesel fuel is higher than the nominal domestic price, the government compensates companies for part of this difference so that they do not raise prices in the Russian Federation and vice versa. The damper is paid only if the average wholesale fuel price for the month has not increased more than the indicative (conditional domestic) 10% for gasoline and 20% for diesel fuel. The indicative price in 2025 is 60,450 rubles per ton for gasoline and 57,200 rubles for diesel fuel.
If we assume that the cutoff will be increased from 10% to 15% for gasoline and from 20% to 25% for diesel, then the price level at which the damper will be paid will be 69,517 rubles for gasoline and 71,500 rubles for diesel.
Recall that by the end of July, according to the Ministry of Finance, the budget paid the oil industry 59.9 billion rubles for the fuel damper compared to 34.5 billion in June.
— After the ban on gasoline exports was introduced on August 1, oil companies lost part of their export earnings. In addition, the situation was affected by the failure of a number of refining facilities. They were forced to raise prices, realizing that under current conditions they might not receive budget payments. If the cutoff increases by five percentage points, they can expect to receive payments from the budget," Ekaterina Kosareva notes.
In addition, Belarusian imports will have an impact on the growth of gasoline supplies to the domestic market in the near future. According to Sergey Tereshin, CEO of Orep Oil Market, Belarusian refineries remain underutilized after the 2020 sanctions and the loss of the European market.
The Belneftekhim concern did not provide an immediate comment. However, they had previously informed Izvestia that the demand for Belarusian gasoline from Russian buyers had increased.
According to Yuri Stankevich, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Energy, the results of the government meeting demonstrated that all industry participants, primarily fuel manufacturers, are taking the most responsible approach to meeting the demand for gasoline in full.
With the participation of Russian Railways, a surplus of supplies to the Crimea has been ensured, and cargo traffic to the regions of the Far East, primarily to Primorsky Krai, is increasing. At the same time, the continuing risks of terrorist attacks require a concentration of efforts on the part of law enforcement agencies and corporate services to protect oil refining facilities, the source concluded.
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