Delivery played: India has made a decision on Russian oil
India has made a final decision on Russian energy resources. New Delhi will buy oil despite US pressure, the republic's ambassador Vinay Kumar told Izvestia. On August 21, the Foreign Ministers of Russia and India will discuss strengthening their strategic partnership in Moscow. Earlier, Donald Trump imposed duties of 25% on Indian imports for purchases of Russian oil. Washington is thus trying to bargain for more favorable terms and open access to the Indian market, experts say. Amid rising tensions between the United States and India, the upcoming negotiations on a trade deal between the countries were canceled, and immediately after the meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Alaska. How the settlement process in Ukraine may affect the supply of Russian energy resources is described in the Izvestia article.
India will not abandon oil from the Russian Federation
India is not considering an embargo on Russian oil, said Ambassador to Russia Vinay Kumar.
— No, India buys what is best for itself. <...> The question is not whether to ban it or not. This is a matter of its security, economic and energy interests of the country, in particular the energy needs of its people. Therefore, we will continue to buy your oil depending on the financial benefits. Our Government has made it clear that India will take all measures to protect its national interests. And this is a national interest — the energy security of India's 1.4 billion people," the diplomat told Izvestia.
Vinay Kumar, Ambassador of the Republic of India to the Russian Federation
According to him, the republic is very sensitive to any measures and actions of those who "encroach on the sovereignty of India."
In early August, according to Bloomberg, Indian state-owned refineries, including Indian Oil Corp. and Bharat Petroleum Corp., stopped buying Russian oil. The authorities also allegedly instructed the refiners to make plans in case of a complete cessation of supplies. However, there was still no serious decline in volumes. It is important to emphasize that official New Delhi has not given any instructions to stop buying Russian oil. And on August 20, Western media reported that they had already resumed. It is reported that the same Indian refineries purchased several shipments of Russian Urals oil with deliveries in September and October.
Perhaps this is due to the fact that on August 18, the leaders of Russia and India had a telephone conversation. Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi discussed, in particular, the Ukrainian settlement following the Alaska summit. The Indian Foreign Ministry noted that strengthening the privileged strategic partnership was also on the agenda. Meanwhile, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar arrived in Moscow on an official visit at the invitation of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov. In particular, he will discuss strengthening strategic partnership with Russia. Jaishankar will take part in the 26th session of the intergovernmental Russian-Indian commission on trade, economic, scientific, technical and cultural cooperation, and will meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on August 21. The ministers will discuss not only bilateral relations, but also cooperation in international formats.
Given the strong ties between Russia and India, which are also united by close cooperation between the BRICS and the SCO, the United States is unlikely to force New Delhi to ban shipments. However, they may prompt a significant reduction in the volume of purchases, Alexey Kupriyanov, head of the IMEMO RAS Indian Ocean Region Center, tells Izvestia. According to him, this will slow down the growth rate of India's refining sector and inflate domestic gasoline prices. In addition, it will cause a shortage of oil supply and raise world prices for it, Indian political scientist Rakesh Bhadauria draws attention.
"If India stops buying Russian oil, it will show that it has given up under US pressure and will undermine the country's policy of strategic autonomy," the expert says.
In a situation where India will have to choose between rejecting Russian oil and accepting US duties, it will choose to continue purchasing hydrocarbons from Russia, says Atul Kohli, a professor of political science and international relations at Princeton University. According to him, the economic costs of such a decision will be far from insignificant, but India must demonstrate to the world that it is able to manage its "strategic autonomy."
Prospects for a U.S.-India trade deal
On August 6, US President Donald Trump imposed additional tariffs on India in the amount of 25% due to Russian oil imports. The United States believes that its sale is an important source for the Russian economy and the Russian Armed Forces. The new restrictions will take effect 21 days after the signing of the decree, that is, in a week. On August 19, Scott Bessent, the head of the Ministry of Finance, recalled the impending duties. He was particularly displeased with the fact that India buys cheap Russian oil and allegedly then resells it profitably. According to the minister, some of India's richest families have earned $16 billion from this.
As for oil, New Delhi is becoming one of Washington's key geostrategic rivals, Beijing. "Many people are shocked by the fact that India has almost equaled China in terms of purchases of Russian oil. It's amazing," says Stephen Miller, Deputy chief of Staff of the White House, Adviser to the President of the United States on homeland Security. According to the Russian Embassy in the republic, the discount on Russian crude oil is about 5%. "India understands that there is no way to change supplies, and the profit for it is very high," the diplomatic mission said. Indeed, over the past year, Russia has overtaken the UAE and become the largest supplier of oil to India, according to calculations by OilX and Kpler, which tracked tanker traffic from April 2024 to March 2025. In total, the Russian share increased from 14% to 57% over the year, while the Emirates, on the contrary, fell from 42% to 23%.
Moreover, on August 7, 25 percent duties on imports from India were also supposed to come into force - this is a continuation of Donald Trump's large—scale tariff policy. According to his plan, they could eliminate the US trade deficit with India. Thus, the duties for the republic will amount to 50%.
Nevertheless, the United States is ready to conclude a trade deal with India — Washington has previously reached similar agreements with the UK, the EU and China. The parties have already held five rounds of negotiations. The next visit of the American trade delegation to New Delhi was scheduled for August 25-29. However, according to Indian media, citing sources, it was suddenly canceled, and immediately after the historic meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska. According to NDTV, the meeting was postponed amid rising tensions in economic relations due to new duties that are due to take effect just these days.
The American side, apparently, needs time to adjust its position after the statements about the new tariffs, Kupriyanov believes.
— And Trump uses the accusations of importing Russian oil just to introduce them. He does not specifically need a halt in supplies, but a strong negotiating position that allows him to put pressure on India to open its market to American goods. If India is ready to make concessions in the negotiations, Trump may use the possible settlement of the Ukrainian crisis in a similar way — as an excuse to reduce duties, the expert concluded.
In case of significant progress on the Ukrainian issue, Washington may cancel the 25% tariffs altogether, Rakesh Bhadauria believes.
Of course, the United States would not refuse to increase its oil supplies to India. However, the main goal of the negotiations is the access of Americans to the agricultural market of the republic. As Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated last week, the authorities intend to firmly protect the interests of the agricultural sector. Farmers' rights are a sensitive issue for India. Losing the competition to large companies, they have been organizing mass protests and marches in recent years. In 2021, the situation became so tense that Modi was forced to cancel his own agricultural reforms. After all, more than 50% of the country's population is employed in the agricultural sector.
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