Capitalize on fame: Banks raised currency spreads before Putin and Trump meeting

The difference in prices for the purchase and sale of foreign currency in Russian exchangers has almost doubled the normal level, Izvestia found out. On August 15, the country's largest banks bought a dollar for an average of 77.5 rubles, and sold it for only 82.5. Individual players had spreads of up to 11 rubles. This is done to prevent speculation. People strive to make money by changing the exchange rate of the national currency. Uncertainty in the market is growing due to the upcoming negotiations between the presidents of the Russian Federation and the United States. So far, the factors are in favor of weakening the ruble to a level above 80 per dollar, as it is more comfortable for the Russian budget.

Spreads for buying and selling currencies in 2025

By the end of the week, the average spread for buying and selling dollars in the ten largest banks reached 5 rubles, Izvestia found out. The difference in the cost of operations reaches 6.5%, increasing by almost 1 percentage point in just three days (normally the indicator should be at the level of 3-4%). Such changes occurred against the background of growing uncertainty in the market due to the approach of negotiations between the heads of the Russian Federation and the United States in Alaska.

Banks from the top 10 now buy a dollar from citizens for an average of 77.5 rubles, while they are ready to sell it for only 82.5 rubles. For individual players, the difference exceeds 7%. For example, such spreads were established in Rosselkhoznadzor, MKB and Raiffeisenbank. Moreover, in the latter, the "American" is sold for 11 rubles more expensive than it is bought.

Izvestia sent inquiries to the largest banks about the growing demand for foreign currency at exchange offices.

— Banks have increased spreads in order to reduce the attractiveness of buying and selling foreign currency during the period of the population's desire to make money on exchange rates. After all, this could provoke an increased demand for cash and lead to an artificial increase in the exchange rate," said Natalia Pyrieva, a leading analyst at Digital Broker.

Usually, during periods of uncertainty, the difference between buying and selling currencies in exchangers increases by an average of 1 percentage point. This is exactly what has happened now, said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. Moreover, exchangers often delay updating exchange rates, impose restrictions on transactions and add commissions, which greatly reduces the possible profit of customers.

Closer to the negotiations between the United States and the Russian Federation, market participants are stocking up on cash, which is why spreads widen and exchange rates fluctuate more, Vladimir Chernov noted.

— According to our estimates, volatility in the foreign exchange market may increase even more in the near future against the background of negotiations, — Natalia Pyrieva from Digital Broker clarified.

As of Friday, banks had not recorded an increase in the volume of purchases and sales of foreign currency, said Sergey Mikhailov, director of Absolut Bank's investment and trade department. However, he admitted that it is not yet clear where the course will go, including because of the negotiations between Putin and Trump. However, the abolition of mandatory repatriation (that is, importation into the country) of foreign currency earnings also has an effect — this factor can significantly weaken the ruble.

The Cabinet of Ministers canceled the mandatory repatriation and sale of foreign exchange earnings for exporters on August 14. The decree was signed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. Now companies working with foreign partners are not required to return foreign currency to accounts in Russian banks and sell it on the domestic market.

The authorities explained this decision by the stability of the ruble and the sufficient amount of currency in the economy. According to TradingView, the ruble-dollar exchange rate has been in the range of 79-80 for three months now. Previously, stricter rules applied: large exporters had to transfer at least 40% of their foreign exchange earnings to Russian banks and sell 90% of this amount in the country.

How to make money trading dollars

— The period of uncertainty is always the base background for the growth of spreads on currency transactions. At the same time, no one knows where the exchange rate will go," explained economist Andrei Barkhota.

During such periods, citizens may show increased interest in such transactions, including with cash. Russians carry their savings to exchangers to try to save or increase their capital during the period of exchange rate fluctuations.

Making money trading in cash through exchangers is a dubious idea, warned Natalia Pyrieva from Digital Broker. Spreads usually "eat up" potential profits. As a result, physical currency speculation is more likely to cause losses than income.

For ordinary investors, it is much more convenient to use online tools rather than relying on earnings through retail exchangers.

— It is more reasonable to purchase currency when the ruble is strengthening, and such a period has just arrived — then the national currency is likely to gradually weaken. Therefore, the current levels look attractive for long—term purchases," Natalia Pyrieva explained.

Next week, the dollar, euro and yuan against the ruble are likely to fluctuate strongly due to the outcome of the meeting in Alaska, said Finam analyst Alexander Potavin. However, the overall situation is unlikely to change much. There is a possibility that in 2025, the USD/RUB exchange rate will develop according to the 2022 scenario: the ruble will remain stable for almost the entire year, and weaken noticeably only in December. At the same time, even without the influence of geopolitics, the "American" can rise to 90-93 rubles.

Nevertheless, in a positive negotiation scenario and with an agreement on the cessation of hostilities, the ruble is able to strengthen slightly due to the emotional reaction of the market, and the dollar will remain in the range of 78-82 rubles, Finam noted. A drawdown to 76 per American dollar is possible with a clear signal of a decrease in tension between the United States and Russia, Vladimir Chernov said. In a neutral scenario, if the negotiations do not bring a breakthrough, but the dialogue persists, the exchange rate will shift to 80-84 rubles, Alexander Potavin added.

Anyway, in the long term, the national currency is more likely to weaken and move to the range of 83-88 per dollar, according to economist Andrei Barkhota. According to him, such a course is more beneficial for the budget, and the authorities will strive to bring it to this level by all means — this is evidenced, among other things, by the abolition of the requirement for the return repatriation of foreign exchange earnings.

— By the end of the quarter, we see the prerequisites for a weakening of the ruble exchange rate. This will be facilitated by an increase in demand for foreign currency caused by increased imports," confirmed Bogdan Zvarich, Head of Banking and Financial Market Analysis at PSB.

Nevertheless, a stir in the market can begin with any outcome of the negotiations, Andrei Barkhota concluded. The ruble exchange rate will definitely start moving, and the Moscow Exchange Index may grow by 5-15% at the moment.