A month has passed: the ban on gasoline exports from the Russian Federation has been extended until the end of September

The total ban on gasoline exports from Russia will be extended for a month — until the end of September. And the missing volumes of fuel for the domestic market will be purchased from Belarusian producers. Such decisions were made on August 14 at a government meeting chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. Experts note that in the next one and a half to two months there may be a shortage of gasoline in the country, as the first deliveries from Belarus will not begin until autumn. Nevertheless, market participants will try to restrain retail gasoline prices. At the same time, according to the Ministry of Energy, in June, gasoline inventories in Russia reached 1.8 million tons. See the Izvestia article about what awaits the fuel market in the near future.

Extension of the ban on gasoline exports

The government extended the total ban on gasoline exports until the end of September for all market participants, and for non—producers (traders, oil depots and small refineries) - until the end of October. This decision was made at a government meeting chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, a source familiar with the meeting told Izvestia. According to him, the shortage of gasoline may be felt up to and including September.

"It was decided to cover the missing volumes through supplies from Belarus and accumulated balances," the source said.

At the same time, according to him, it is worth waiting for Belarusian fuel no earlier than September. The interlocutor could not specify what volumes he was talking about, noting only that these imports would most likely not be able to fully compensate for the shortage.

In June, the Ministry of Energy reported that gasoline inventories in Russia reached 1.8 million tons (+2% compared to the level of early 2024), while diesel fuel inventories remained at the level of last year and amounted to 3.3 million tons. In early August, the Ministry of Energy did not name the level of reserves, nor did it provide information on whether they would be used to stabilize the market.

Until August 1 of this year, the ban on foreign supplies was valid only for non-manufacturers. Large oil refiners producing more than 1 million tons per year were allowed to supply. On August 1, the Cabinet of Ministers imposed a complete ban on gasoline exports for a month. However, this measure proved ineffective.

The cost of motor fuel continues to rise. Last week, AI-95 updated its historical maximum and came close to the mark of 81 thousand rubles per ton, according to trading data from the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange. Prior to that, the record, which exceeded 76 thousand rubles per ton, was recorded in September 2023. AI-92 also set a record on August 13: its price on the stock exchange reached 70.9 thousand rubles per ton.

In the run-up to the meeting, stock prices for gasoline dropped slightly. The AI-95 has especially fallen in price. On the morning of August 14, 77.99 thousand rubles per ton were given for it, and 70.55 thousand rubles for AI-92.

What other market stabilization measures were discussed

Experts attributed the price increase to a seasonal increase in demand and unplanned repairs at the refinery. Since the beginning of August, four large Russian oil refineries located in the European part of Russia have been attacked by UAVs.

According to Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of VMT Consult, given the scale of the loss of fuel volumes and the considerable time required for the repair of installations, first of all, regulators needed to resolve the issue of fuel sales volumes on the stock exchange and the dynamics of its cost growth.

The day before, it became known about the FAS proposal to increase the minimum volume of gasoline sales on the stock exchange from 15% to 17%. This measure, as noted in the press service of the antimonopoly authority, should contribute to ensuring pricing transparency and minimizing the risks of unjustified price increases. This issue was on the agenda of the cabinet meeting (the document is available to Izvestia), however, according to another editorial source, it was decided to "work out" this proposal, as both the Ministry of Energy and oil companies called this measure ineffective.

In addition, the event considered the issue of "setting the price of the next trading day at the level of the first starting price of the current month, in case the price growth rate exceeds 10% of the first starting price of the month." And also the question of "setting the starting price of the day based on a discrete auction."

— The offer to return to the starting price of the month was not accepted. The participants of the meeting considered it not only ineffective, but also negative. However, everyone agreed with the proposal to extend the experience of Lukoil and Gazprom Neft to holding a discrete auction by other companies. The point is that the bidders will know in advance the volumes offered by the manufacturers, which will help cool the excitement," says a source familiar with the results of the meeting in the government.

According to the CEO of the Independent Analytical Agency of the Oil and Gas Sector (NAANS-Media) Tamara Safonova, the purpose of holding a discrete gasoline auction may be to protect market participants from sudden price changes, prevent manipulation of the market value, and, as a result, eliminate the existing negative gap between stock prices for gasoline and the cost of its sale at gas stations.

Izvestia sent inquiries to the Federal Antimonopoly Service and the press service of the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange, as well as to major Russian oil companies.

What prices to expect at the gas station

Despite the rise in stock prices, the cost of fuel at the gas station does not show the same dynamics. According to Rosstat, average retail gasoline prices for the period from August 5 to August 11 increased by 25 cents to 61.44 rubles per liter. The cost of diesel fuel increased by one kopeck to 71.5 rubles per liter.

During the reporting period, Ai-92 gasoline rose in price by 24 cents to 58.23 rubles per liter, and Ai—95 by 27 cents to 63.52 rubles per liter. An increase in prices for this fuel was recorded in 81 regions of the Russian Federation. It rose the most in the Jewish Autonomous Region (+2.7%) and the Trans-Baikal Territory (+1.9%).

— There will be growth, but it will not be comparable with the increase in stock prices, — Ekaterina Kosareva believes. — I think there will be some kind of gentleman's agreement with some subsequent benefits for retail. Everyone understands perfectly well that the situation on the market did not arise because of any action or inaction of the authorities.

Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Energy, Yuri Stankevich, in a conversation with Izvestia, noted that the Ministry of Economic Development, referring to the results of monetary policy, is revising down inflation forecasts.

— We are talking about less than 7% by the end of the year. Both the government and companies will strive to keep retail fuel prices in this "inflationary corridor," taking into account the increase in excise taxes, which have averaged 1.7 rubles per liter since the beginning of the year, the deputy says.

He noted that today, without exception, all WINCs are operating at the limit of capacity, carrying out "scheduled and unscheduled repairs as quickly as possible."

According to Dmitry Kasatkin, Managing partner of Kasatkin Consulting, in the long term, in order to solve the problems of providing fuel to the domestic market, it is necessary to adapt the international experience of inventory management for Russia.

"It is necessary to introduce a strategic federal reserve and mandatory commercial buffer reserves at refineries and in the sales department, with clear daily norms and automatic release rules," the Izvestia interlocutor believes.

In addition, in his opinion, it is necessary to subsidize the logistics of fuel to remote regions using the tonne-kilometer formula, as well as link investment incentives for refineries to the actual increase in refining depth and fuel quality.

— It is also important to strengthen the role of the stock exchange in price formation, — Dmitry Kasatkin added. — To do this, it is possible to introduce flexible minimum volumes of mandatory fuel sales through it, more strictly control that transactions on and off the exchange are not used for manipulation, as well as develop tools such as supply futures and swaps that allow participants to insure price risks.

At the same time, the expert concluded, it is necessary to systematically support independent companies — to provide them with guaranteed minimum volumes of fuel through transparent auctions, to give preferential loans for working capital provided that they insure risks, to develop franchise schemes with large oil companies and strictly control fuel quality.