To continue childbirth: in the Russian Federation it was proposed to sharply increase maternity leave

In Russia, it was proposed to dramatically increase maternity leave to increase the birth rate. In July, the president said that existing measures to support families were not enough to overcome the demographic decline. Currently, the parent receives an allowance of 40% of his average earnings. The payment should be increased to 60% after the birth of the second child and to 80% at the birth of the third, as well as to remove the upper limit of 69 thousand, according to the scientific journal of the Russian Academy of Sciences (reviewed by Izvestia). Other initiatives include encouraging employers to introduce flexible working hours for parents. How much budget funds may be required for this is in the Izvestia article.

How do they propose to change payments for the birth of a second and third child

In order to increase the birth rate in Russia, it is necessary to increase maternity payments, this is stated in an article in the scientific journal "Problems of Forecasting" by Alexander Larionov, a senior researcher at INP RAS. The benefits should compensate for the loss of income that a woman could receive if she continued to work, he believes.

Currently, the amount of child care allowance for up to 1.5 years is 40% of the average earnings. In this case, the amount cannot be less than 9 thousand rubles and more than 69 thousand rubles.

At the birth of a second child, it should be raised to 60% of the parent's average income and paid for 2.5 years instead of one and a half, the proposal says. And after the appearance of the third child, it can be increased to 80% and extended to three years. Alexander Larionov also called for removing the maximum allowance. And payments at the birth of the fourth and subsequent children can be indexed from the position of payments for large families, the expert notes.

Other measures to increase the birth rate include tax incentives for employers who will ensure that parents are transferred to a flexible schedule, the issuance of housing certificates or the transfer of state-owned apartments. As well as the development of nurseries and the introduction of the discipline "Demography" into the list of compulsory university courses.

Izvestia appealed to the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Labor with a request to evaluate the proposed initiatives.

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In July, Vladimir Putin said that existing measures to support families were not enough to overcome the demographic decline. According to the VTsIOM report, a little over 1.22 million children were born in Russia in 2024. This is 3.4% less than in the previous year. The indicator has been decreasing for the last nine years.

The President instructed the government to analyze the effectiveness of fertility-boosting programs and submit proposals for additional measures.

Will the increase in payments help to increase the birth rate

With a sharp increase in payments, it may be necessary to increase insurance premium rates (if the Social Fund budget does not have enough money). However, this is not possible now, says Igor Balynin, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.

In turn, an extension of paid parental leave would be useful and in great demand among Russians, the expert believes.

Often, young mothers are forced to end their vacations prematurely and go to work due to financial instability, said Olga Lebedinskaya, Associate Professor of Statistics at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.

"The institute of social workers who would help with young children if necessary can be a good help, because, according to Rosstat, fathers devote three times less time to child care than mothers," she said. An important aspect is also the development of the nursery infrastructure, says Andrei Girinsky, associate professor at the Faculty of Economics at RUDN University.

Although financial measures alone are often not enough, it cannot be denied that, for example, the introduction of maternity capital has had a tangible effect, especially at the regional level, said Azamat Tlisov, director of the North Caucasus Institute, a branch of the Presidential Academy. Thus, the total fertility rate increased from 1.3 children per woman in 2006 to 1.5 in 2019 due to the second and subsequent children. In total, during the duration of the program, 2-2.5 million more babies were born in the country than expected.

— However, the issue of reviewing and strengthening existing measures is now overdue. Their effectiveness is gradually decreasing, and the task of ensuring a stable family income while caring for a child is becoming particularly urgent. This is especially true for women who temporarily drop out of work. A sharp decline in family incomes during this period becomes a factor forcing families to postpone the birth of their next child," Azamat Tlisov added.

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The expert called the proposal to increase the amount of payments a reasonable approach. Given that by the time the third child is born, the mother usually already has professional and career experience, she does not want to lose the achieved level of income and qualifications.

According to Azamat Tlisov, another important area is the improvement of housing conditions for large families. This may include lower mortgage interest rates, interest-free loans, or the provision of real estate under social loan agreements with the possibility of subsequent foreclosure. Providing a minimum standard of living space per family member may also be a significant incentive, which will create basic conditions for a comfortable life, he concluded.

In Russia, family mortgage rates can be differentiated depending on the region, locality and number of children. This recommendation to the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Construction is contained in a resolution adopted at the plenary session of the State Duma in late July. The details are still being discussed, but it is expected that a final decision will be made before the end of this year. According to some estimates, the rate may decrease up to 2%.

The implementation of such initiatives will require additional budget expenditures, Azamat Tlisov noted. For example, to implement one of the key proposals of the Russian Academy of Sciences — to increase payments and extend the period for receiving them — depending on demand, it may take from 5 to 15 billion rubles in the first 18 months, independent expert Andrey Barkhota estimated. And then — from 20 to 30 billion annually, taking into account the growing interest in the program.

Igor Balynin presented other calculations: for example, if the payment period is six months longer, then it will require an additional allocation of about 70-80 billion rubles per year from the budget. At the same time, the federal treasury deficit increased by 1.2 trillion in July. By the end of seven months, it amounted to 4.9 trillion rubles (2.2% of GDP), exceeding the planned figure for the whole year (3.8 trillion).

The required amount is relatively small. It is comparable to transfers from the federal budget to the regional budget to cover the deficit, Andrei Barkhota emphasized. In addition, according to Azamat Tlisov, it is important for the country and the sustainability of its economy.